BrazilWTA Sao PauloFinished

Predictions graded

Justina Mikulskyte #241Lithuania0Chloe Paquet #297France2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 18:30 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJustina Mikulskyte · 56 places

Justina Mikulskyte

Lithuania

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 198 in August 2025. She played collegiate tennis at Kentucky.

Current ranking: #241
Peak ranking: #198 · 2025
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Chloe Paquet

France

Reached No. 96 in August 2024 after entering the Top 100 for the first time. She is coached by Stéphane Charret and trains in Paris with the French Tennis Federation.

Current ranking: #297
Peak ranking: #96
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 179 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 06:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Mikulskyte's superior recent form and hard-court record make her the favorite, but Paquet's 2-0 H2H edge adds risk.

The over on total double faults (8.5) is a strong angle given both players' high error rates. Mikulskyte to win at 2.10 offers value with a 10.4-point edge.

Context

Mikulskyte, ranked 231, has a 13-4 hard-court record in 2026 and is coming off a straight-sets win in the first qualifying round.
Paquet, ranked 297, has struggled recently with only five wins in her last 15 matches and a 28.6% win rate on clay in that span. On hard courts, Mikulskyte's recent sample is small but positive, and her overall form gives her an edge in this matchup.
- Mikulskyte's last 15 overall record is 9-6 (60%), while Paquet's is 5-10 (33.3%).
- Mikulskyte has won 4 of her last 6 hard-court matches; Paquet has only one hard-court match in her last 15, which she won.
- Paquet's recent clay results are poor: 4-10 in her last 14 clay matches.
Paquet, a 28-year-old French player, has a career 263 clay wins and has historically performed better on clay than hard courts.
The two previous matches were on clay, where Paquet's game matches up well against Mikulskyte. However, this match is on hard court, where Mikulskyte has been more successful recently, so the surface change may reduce the relevance of the head-to-head.
- Paquet won 6-1 6-3 on July 7, 2026, and 3-6 6-1 6-4 on April 19, 2024.
- Both previous meetings were on clay.
- Paquet's career clay win percentage is higher than her hard-court win percentage.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Mikulskyte's stronger recent form and better hard-court sample give her the edge, though Paquet's H2H dominance adds uncertainty.
- Mikulskyte last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Paquet 5-10 (33.3%)
- Mikulskyte last 15 hard-court record 4-2 (66.7%), Paquet hard-court sample only 1 match (win)
- Mikulskyte last 15 return points won 45.7%, Paquet 46.2% (similar)
- Mikulskyte last 15 break points saved 56.7%, Paquet 52.9%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJustina MikulskyteEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive matchup with service weaknesses and H2H history suggests a longer match.
- Mikulskyte last 15 average 19.9 games per match, Paquet 21.4
- Both players have high double fault rates (Mikulskyte 4.0, Paquet 5.1 per match)
- H2H matches: 16 and 20 games, both over 21.5
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Evenly matched first sets with frequent breaks point to a longer opening set.
- Mikulskyte last 15 first set average 9.6 games, Paquet 9.9
- Both players have break point conversion rates near 45%
- Paquet's last match first set went 7-5
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mikulskyte's slightly better first-set conversion and Paquet's recent slow starts support a Mikulskyte first set.
- Mikulskyte first set win conversion career 87%, Paquet 80%
- Mikulskyte last 15 first serve points won 59.2%, Paquet 60.7%
- Paquet lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJustina MikulskyteEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, making over 8.5 likely.
- Mikulskyte last 15 double faults per match 4.0, Paquet 5.1
- Combined average 9.1 double faults per match
- Paquet had 8 double faults in her only hard-court match in last 15
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low tiebreak frequency in recent matches suggests no tiebreak, though close sets are possible.
- Mikulskyte career tiebreak win rate 49%, Paquet 50%
- Last 15 matches: Mikulskyte had 1 tiebreak, Paquet had 3
- Combined tiebreak frequency about 13% per set
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L6-1 6-3Justina Mikulskyte#231vChloe Paquet#297Jul 7, 2026

L3-6 6-1 6-4Justina Mikulskyte#231vChloe Paquet#297Apr 19, 2024

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Justina Mikulskyte

9W 6L

6-2 6-3#369Antonia Vergara Rivera

7-5 6-2#416Clara Burel

2-6 6-4 6-4#512Nahia Berecoechea

6-2 6-0#482Denisa Zoldakova

6-1 1-6 6-3#589Ariana Geerlings

3-6 6-3 6-4#274Federica Urgesi

6-4 6-2#305Gina Feistel

6-2 6-4#184Gabriela Andrea Knutson

7-5 2-6 6-1#129Katarzyna Kawa

7-6(3) 6-2#407Weronika Ewald

5-7 6-4 6-3#613Tilwith Di Girolami

6-3 6-0#301Alicia Herrero Linana

7-5 6-3#883Michaela Bayerlova

5-7 6-3 6-3#182Martyna Kubka

6-4 6-4#677Valeria Savinykh

Chloe Paquet

5W 10L

7-5 1-6 6-2#242Martina Capurro Taborda

3-6 6-1 6-3#551Valeriya Strakhova

6-2 7-6(6)#589Ariana Geerlings

6-1 6-3#290Rada Zolotareva

7-6(5) 5-4 ret.#142Andrea Lazaro Garcia

6-0 1-6 6-0#104Francesca Jones

1-6 6-4 6-4#204Arantxa Rus

6-3 4-6 6-2#551Valeriya Strakhova

5-7 6-2 6-4#484Valentina Ivanov

2-6 6-4 6-1#379Lia Karatancheva

6-1 6-3#231Justina Mikulskyte

6-0 6-3#161Ekaterine Gorgodze

6-4 6-1#384Julia Stusek

6-1 6-1#194Anastasiia Sobolieva

7-6(4) 6-1#302Britt Du Pree

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JMJustina MikulskyteMikulskyte

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Chloe PaquetPaquetCP

Justina Mikulskyte carries the stronger recent form — Chloe Paquet's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In60.8%+1.3pp59.5%

1st Serve Won59.2%+1.5pp60.7%

2nd Serve Won43.9%+5.2pp38.7%

Aces / Match1.5+0.72.2

Double Faults / Match4.01.1 fewer5.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won45.7%—46.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.2%+5.3pp40.9%

Break Pts Saved56.7%+3.8pp52.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.5%—48.9%

Serve · 3–2

60.8%1st Serve In+1.3pp59.5%

59.2%1st Serve Won+1.5pp60.7%

43.9%2nd Serve Won+5.2pp38.7%

1.5Aces / Match+0.72.2

4.0Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer5.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

45.7%Return Pts Won—46.2%

Pressure · 2–0

46.2%Break Pts Converted+5.3pp40.9%

56.7%Break Pts Saved+3.8pp52.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.5%Total Pts Won—48.9%