MexicoWTA GuadalajaraRET

Predictions graded

Iryna Shymanovich #192Belarus2Lea Ma #287United States0

Sets 7-6 · 3-0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions5–183%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIryna Shymanovich · 95 places

Iryna Shymanovich

Belarus

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 66 in September 2023. Current ranking supplied for this match is No. 192.

Current ranking: #192
Peak ranking: #66 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 171 cm

Lea Ma

United States

Ma, 25, reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 273 in July 2026. Her professional match record has been predominantly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #287
Peak ranking: #273 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Shymanovich's superior return game and break-point conversion give her a slight edge, but Ma's stronger first serve and better recent hard-court form make this a close contest.

The best betting angle is over 20.5 total games, while the match winner market offers no value on Shymanovich at 1.55.

Context

Shymanovich, 191st, is a right-hander with a 65.3% career win rate and a strong clay background, but her recent hard-court numbers are modest.
In the last 15 matches, Shymanovich has won 64.5% of first-serve points and 44.8% of return points, while Ma has won 68.7% and 42.9% respectively. Ma's first-serve advantage is notable, but Shymanovich's slightly better return could keep rallies competitive. This is a small sample, so the difference may not be decisive.
- Shymanovich last 15: first-serve points won 64.5%, return points won 44.8%.
- Ma last 15: first-serve points won 68.7%, return points won 42.9%.
Ma, 287th, has a 61% career win rate and has played most of her recent matches on hard courts.
Ma's 8-5 record on hard courts in her last 13 matches is more convincing than Shymanovich's 4-3 in her last 7. Ma also beat Elvina Kalieva, ranked 115, in June, showing she can compete with higher-ranked players. However, Shymanovich's smaller sample makes her form less certain.
- Ma last 13 hard-court matches: 8 wins, 5 losses.
- Shymanovich last 7 hard-court matches: 4 wins, 3 losses.
- Ma defeated Elvina Kalieva (ranked 115) on hard court in June 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Iryna Shymanovich

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Shymanovich's stronger return and break-point conversion edge on hard courts gives her a slight advantage in a close matchup.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Shymanovich's stronger return and break-point conversion edge on hard courts gives her a slight advantage in a close matchup.
- Shymanovich last15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Lea Ma 9-6 (60%)
- Shymanovich hard-court last15 record 4-3 (57.1%), Lea Ma hard-court last15 record 8-5 (61.5%)
- Shymanovich return points won 44.8% overall vs Ma 42.9% overall
- Shymanovich break point conversion 54.2% overall vs Ma 41.7% overall
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIryna ShymanovichEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches with average total games near or above 20.5, supporting an over.
- Shymanovich last15 average 21.3 games per match, Ma 20.8
- Shymanovich hard-court last15 average 19.7 games, Ma 21.0
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50-52%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent hard-court first sets have averaged close to 9.5 games, making over 9.5 a reasonable lean.
- Shymanovich last15 hard-court average set1 games 9.4, Ma 9.2
- Both players have first-set win percentages near 50% in recent hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shymanovich's superior return game may give her an early edge, though Ma's stronger first serve keeps this close.
- Shymanovich first-set win conversion career 88%, Ma 88%
- Shymanovich last15 hard-court first serve points won 59.8% vs Ma 69.9%
- Shymanovich last15 hard-court return points won 45.5% vs Ma 42.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIryna ShymanovichEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 3 double faults per match, making over 6.5 likely in a competitive match.
- Shymanovich last15 double faults per match 3.7, Ma 3.4
- Combined average double faults per match 7.1
- Shymanovich hard-court double faults per match 4.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ma's higher ace rate pushes the combined total near the over line, though Shymanovich's low ace count adds uncertainty.
- Shymanovich last15 aces per match 1.7, Ma 3.8
- Combined average aces per match 5.5
- Ma's hard-court aces per match 4.2
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Iryna Shymanovich

9W 6L

7-5 6-2#413Ana Sofia Sanchez

6-4 6-2#288Julieta Pareja

6-4 3-6 6-4#180Rebeka Masarova

6-2 7-5#160Polina Iatcenko

6-4 6-2#78Katie Volynets

6-4 6-3#431Reese Brantmeier

6-2 6-0#598Ankita Raina

3-6 6-2 6-3#122Mary Stoiana

6-3 6-2#224Hayu Kinoshita

6-2 2-6 6-1#56Viktorija Golubic

4-6 6-3 7-6(5)#214Katherine Sebov

6-4 6-2#176Greetje Minnen

7-6(5) 3-6 6-4#118Dominika Salkova

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#76Lanlana Tararudee

6-3 6-3#508Clervie Ngounoue

Lea Ma

9W 6L

6-2 6-2#246Katarina Zavatska

6-1 6-1#431Reese Brantmeier

6-4 7-6(5)#425Alana Smith

6-3 4-6 6-1#170Elizabeth Mandlik

6-2 3-6 7-6(2)#281Lizette Cabrera

6-3 6-3#259Haruka Kaji

6-2 6-3#94Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-4 6-6 ret.#508Clervie Ngounoue

7-6(3) 7-6(6)#307Savannah Broadus

6-4 2-6 7-5#508Clervie Ngounoue

6-4 2-6 6-1#115Elvina Kalieva

3-0 ret.#745Jo-Yee Chan

6-3 7-6(5)—Violeta Martinez

6-3 7-6(3)#212Madison Brengle

6-3 6-3#365Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ISIryna ShymanovichShymanovich

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Lea MaMaLM

Lea Ma carries the stronger recent form — Iryna Shymanovich's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In54.9%+0.8pp55.7%

1st Serve Won64.5%+4.2pp68.7%

2nd Serve Won47.5%+4.5pp43.0%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/151.7+2.13.8

Double Faults / Match3.70.3 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.8%+1.9pp42.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted54.2%+12.5pp41.7%

Break Pts Saved54.8%—55.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.8%—50.1%

Serve · 1–4

54.9%1st Serve In+0.8pp55.7%

64.5%1st Serve Won+4.2pp68.7%

47.5%2nd Serve Won+4.5pp43.0%

1.7Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.13.8

3.7Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

44.8%Return Pts Won+1.9pp42.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

54.2%Break Pts Converted+12.5pp41.7%

54.8%Break Pts Saved—55.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.8%Total Pts Won—50.1%