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Predictions graded

Elena Malygina #308Estonia2Giulia Pereira De Aguiar #1822Brazil0

Sets 6-0 · 6-2Sun 13 Sept 2026, 09:10 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions8–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElena Malygina · 1514 places

Elena Malygina

Estonia

Malygina, 26, reached a singles career-high No. 294 on 13 April 2026. Her WTA singles ranking was No. 308 on 31 August 2026.

Current ranking: #308
Peak ranking: #294 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Giulia Pereira de Aguiar

Brazil

The ITF listed her at No. 1,822 in singles on 15 June 2026, also her recorded career high at that update. It lists her as a right-hander with hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #1822
Peak ranking: #1822
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Malygina is a heavy favorite based on superior form and a dominant H2H win, but the odds offer no value.

Pereira De Aguiar's poor form suggests a quick straight-set victory for Malygina, making unders on games and sets appealing, along with over on double faults.

Context

Pereira De Aguiar has a career win rate of just 5.5% and has won only 3 of 55 professional matches.
In her last 15 matches, she has won only 2, and her games won percentage is 27.5%. She has lost her last five matches in straight sets, including a 6-0 6-0 defeat to Kayla Cross. This level of form makes it very difficult for her to compete against a more experienced opponent like Malygina.
- Pereira De Aguiar's last 15 record is 2-13, with a games won percentage of 27.5%.
- She has lost her last five matches in straight sets, including a 6-0 6-0 loss to Kayla Cross.
- Her career win rate is 5.5% (3 wins in 55 matches).
Malygina, ranked 308, has a career win rate of 58.7% and is more comfortable on clay, where she has 125 career wins compared to 33 on hard courts.
Her recent clay sample shows a 41.7% win rate with 47.4% return points won, but her hard-court sample is only three matches with a 33.3% win rate and a lower first-serve percentage of 54.5%. Pereira De Aguiar has struggled badly on hard courts, winning just 1 of 9 matches in 2026 and losing her last five hard-court matches in straight sets. This suggests Malygina should have a clear edge, but the small hard-court sample for both players adds uncertainty.
- Malygina's last 15 overall record is 6-9, but on clay she is 5-7 with 47.4% return points won.
- Malygina's hard-court record in the last 15 is 1-2, with a first-serve percentage of 54.5% and 5 double faults per match.
- Pereira De Aguiar's 2026 hard-court record is 1-8, and she has lost her last five hard-court matches in straight sets.
The two players met once before, in 2022, on hard court.
Malygina won that match 6-1 6-0, which suggests she has a comfortable matchup against Pereira De Aguiar. However, that match was four years ago, and both players have changed since then, so it may not be fully indicative of today's contest.
- H2H: Malygina defeated Pereira De Aguiar 6-1 6-0 on 2022-09-11.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Elena Malygina

1.01fair 1.09

BetBugs 92% · Market 99%

0.0ppshort

Malygina's superior recent form and dominant H2H win make her a heavy favorite, but the odds are extremely short and offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.01
The read
Malygina's superior recent form and dominant H2H win make her a heavy favorite.
- Elena Malygina has a 6-9 record in last 15 matches, while Giulia Pereira De Aguiar is 2-13 in the same window.
- Malygina won the only H2H meeting 6-1 6-0 in 2022.
- Pereira De Aguiar has lost 13 of her last 15 matches, including a 6-0 6-0 defeat in her most recent match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonElena MalyginaEstimated chance92%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pereira De Aguiar's poor form suggests a quick match with few games.
- Pereira De Aguiar has lost 10 of her last 15 matches in straight sets with an average of 4.1 games won per match.
- Malygina's recent matches average 22.3 total games, but against weaker opponents she has won comfortably.
- H2H match was 6-1 6-0, totaling 13 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 18.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be one-sided given Pereira De Aguiar's weak starts.
- Pereira De Aguiar has lost the first set 6-0 or 6-1 in 6 of her last 15 matches.
- Malygina has won the first set 6-2 or better in 4 of her last 15 matches.
- H2H first set was 6-1.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is also likely to be lopsided.
- Pereira De Aguiar has lost the second set 6-0 or 6-1 in 5 of her last 15 matches.
- Malygina has won the second set 6-2 or better in 5 of her last 15 matches.
- H2H second set was 6-0.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Malygina's strong first-set record contrasts with Pereira De Aguiar's frequent early deficits.
- Malygina has won the first set in 7 of her last 15 matches.
- Pereira De Aguiar has lost the first set in 13 of her last 15 matches.
- Malygina's first set win conversion is 86% career.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonElena MalyginaEstimated chance85%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Malygina's consistency in the second set is likely to continue against a struggling opponent.
- Malygina has won the second set in 8 of her last 15 matches.
- Pereira De Aguiar has lost the second set in 12 of her last 15 matches.
- Malygina's overall games won percentage is 45.8% vs Pereira De Aguiar's 27.5%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonElena MalyginaEstimated chance82%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A straight-set victory for Malygina is highly likely.
- Pereira De Aguiar has lost in straight sets in 13 of her last 15 matches.
- Malygina has won in straight sets in 5 of her last 15 matches.
- H2H was a straight-set win for Malygina.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance80%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the skill gap, a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Pereira De Aguiar has not played a tiebreak in her last 15 matches.
- Malygina has played 2 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches.
- The expected lopsided scoreline reduces tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace counts, making under 4.5 likely.
- Malygina averages 1.2 aces per match in last 15.
- Pereira De Aguiar averages 0.3 aces per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 1.5 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, pushing the total over 6.5.
- Malygina averages 3.7 double faults per match in last 15.
- Pereira De Aguiar averages 4.8 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 8.5 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 6-0Elena Malygina#308vGiulia Pereira De Aguiar—Sep 11, 2022

1 total meetings

Elena Malygina

6W 9L

6-3 7-5#513Gaia Maduzzi

3-6 6-1 6-1#750Georgina Garcia-Perez

6-2 6-1#513Gaia Maduzzi

6-4 6-3#823Zuzanna Bednarz

6-3 2-6 6-2#582Laima Vladson

7-6(2) 7-5#343Dalila Jakupovic

6-3 6-3#256Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-4 4-6 6-1#411Jule Niemeier

6-2 6-4#303Lisa Zaar

4-6 6-1 6-4#270Sofya Lansere

7-5 4-6 7-6(2)#517Viola Turini

6-1 6-2#648Daria Kuczer

6-2 6-4#420Amandine Hesse

6-4 5-7 6-2#407Weronika Ewald

6-3 6-3#230Xinyu Gao

Giulia Pereira De Aguiar

2W 13L

6-0 6-0#162Kayla Cross

6-3 6-1#701Gabriella Da Silva Fick

6-1 6-2—Unknown Player

6-0 6-2—Seda Baslilar

6-3 6-1—Polina Isakova

6-1 6-0#836Lauryn John-Baptiste

6-3 6-2—Maria Trujillo Garnica

7-5 6-2—Carlota Corte

6-3 6-1—Sophie Martin

6-2 7-5—Love-Star Alexis

6-2 6-1—Najah Dawson

6-0 2-0 ret.—Milla Sequeira

6-0 6-1—Carolina Bernardo

6-1 6-0—Sofia Alekseeva

6-1 6-1—Polina Kozello

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EMElena MalyginaMalygina

Last 15

9–0

9 core stats · 0 even

Giulia Pereira De AguiarAguiarGA

Elena Malygina carries the stronger recent form — Giulia Pereira De Aguiar's route runs through aces / match.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In15/15 · 6/1563.8%+2.8pp61.0%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 6/1555.4%+8.7pp46.7%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 6/1540.9%+12.2pp28.7%

Aces / Match15/15 · 6/151.2+0.90.3

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 6/153.71.1 fewer4.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 6/1547.5%+14.8pp32.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 6/1545.2%+26.0pp19.2%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 6/1548.1%+6.0pp42.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 6/1548.8%+12.6pp36.2%

Serve · 5–0

63.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 6/15+2.8pp61.0%

55.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 6/15+8.7pp46.7%

40.9%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 6/15+12.2pp28.7%

1.2Aces / Match15/15 · 6/15+0.90.3

3.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 6/151.1 fewer4.8

Return · 1–0

47.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 6/15+14.8pp32.7%

Pressure · 2–0

45.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 6/15+26.0pp19.2%

48.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 6/15+6.0pp42.1%

Points · 1–0

48.8%Total Pts Won15/15 · 6/15+12.6pp36.2%