ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Alex Marti Pujolras #524Spain2Maximo Zeitune #642Argentina0

Sets 7-6 · 7-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 11:20 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions2–433%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlex Marti Pujolras · 118 places

Alex Marti Pujolras

Spain

Spanish right-hander, born 10 February 1999. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface and a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 318 in July 2025.

Current ranking: #524
Peak ranking: #318 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Maximo Zeitune

Argentina

Zeitune, 20, is a 196 cm right-hander with a one-handed backhand. His career-best No. 625 was recorded in May 2026; his current ranking is No. 642.

Current ranking: #642
Peak ranking: #625 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Maximo Zeitune has a clear form and clay-court edge over Alex Marti Pujolras, with better win rates and serve metrics.

Back Zeitune on the moneyline at 2.20 for a 16.5-point edge, and consider over 8.5 double faults due to Marti Pujolras's high double fault rate. The match is likely to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games also offering value.

Context

Zeitune, 642nd, is a clay-court specialist with a 55.4% career win rate and has played all his matches on clay this season.
Zeitune's 60% win rate over the last 15 matches is significantly better than Marti Pujolras's 40%. Zeitune also wins more points overall (52.1% vs 49.1%) and has a stronger serve, winning 69.4% of first-serve points compared to 67.1% for Marti Pujolras. However, Marti Pujolras has a better return game, winning 41.2% of return points versus 39.5% for Zeitune, which could keep the match competitive.
- Zeitune's last 15 record: 9-6 (60%), Marti Pujolras: 6-9 (40%).
- Zeitune's total points won: 52.1%, Marti Pujolras: 49.1%.
- Zeitune's first-serve points won: 69.4%, Marti Pujolras: 67.1%.
- Marti Pujolras's return points won: 41.2%, Zeitune: 39.5%.
Zeitune, ATP No. 642, arrives after a demanding week in Genoa.
He played four matches in three days, including a three-hour win on 8 September and a second-round match on 9 September. That workload could leave him less fresh for this qualifying opener, though the short trip within Italy limits travel fatigue.
- The 8 September win over Alvaro Guillen Meza lasted three hours.
- The Genoa results list shows qualifying matches on 6 and 7 September, followed by main-draw matches on 8 and 9 September.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 03:21 · Europe/Bucharest365Scores — Maximo Zeitune vs Alvaro Guillen Mezawww.365scores.com · 8 Sep 2026TennisTemple — Maximo Zeitune resultsen.tennistemple.com · 13 Sep 2026
Marti Pujolras, 508th, has a career double-fault rate that is already high, but his recent matches show an even more severe issue.
In his last 15 matches, Marti Pujolras has hit 108 double faults, an average of 7.2 per match, while Zeitune averages only 1.5. This could be decisive in a close match, as Marti Pujolras's second-serve points won is just 41.2% compared to Zeitune's 55.5%. If Marti Pujolras continues to double fault at this rate, Zeitune will have many opportunities to attack.
- Marti Pujolras's double faults per match: 7.2, Zeitune: 1.5.
- Marti Pujolras's second-serve points won: 41.2%, Zeitune: 55.5%.
- Marti Pujolras's first-serve percentage: 59.8%, Zeitune: 67.6%.
Zeitune has been active on the clay circuit, often playing multiple matches per week.
Zeitune's last three matches have all gone to three sets, including a 2-hour 7-minute win over Alvaro Guillen Meza on September 8. He also played a three-set match on September 7. This accumulated fatigue could be a factor against Marti Pujolras, who had a quick 6-0 6-1 win on September 6 and a loss on September 7, giving him more rest before this match.
- Zeitune's last three matches: 3 sets each, including a 2h07m win on Sep 8.
- Marti Pujolras's last match: 6-3 6-0 loss on Sep 7, then a day off before this match.
- Zeitune's average match duration in last 15: 127.8 minutes, Marti Pujolras: 121.9 minutes.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Zeitune has a clear recent form and clay-court edge over Marti Pujolras, supported by better win rate, games won, and total points won in the last 15 matches.
- Last 15 overall record: Zeitune 9-6 (60%) vs Marti Pujolras 6-9 (40%)
- Last 15 clay record: Zeitune 9-6 (60%) vs Marti Pujolras 6-8 (42.9%)
- Zeitune last 15 games won 54.3% vs Marti Pujolras 47.3%
- Zeitune last 15 total points won 52.1% vs Marti Pujolras 49.1%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMaximo ZeituneEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to play longer matches with competitive sets, making over 21.5 games likely.
- Zeitune last 15 average duration 127.8 minutes, Marti Pujolras 121.9 minutes
- Zeitune last 15 games per match average 22.7, Marti Pujolras 21.1
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets between these players are likely to be competitive, with several recent sets going to 10 or more games.
- Zeitune recent first sets include 7-6, 6-4, 6-2, 6-4
- Marti Pujolras recent first sets include 7-6, 6-4, 6-3
- Both players have tiebreak experience in first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zeitune's stronger serve metrics and overall recent form give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Zeitune first set win conversion career 80% vs Marti Pujolras 87%
- Zeitune last 15 first serve points won 69.4% vs Marti Pujolras 67.1%
- Zeitune last 15 second serve points won 55.5% vs Marti Pujolras 41.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMaximo ZeituneEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Marti Pujolras's high double fault rate drives the combined total above 8.5.
- Marti Pujolras last 15 double faults per match 7.2
- Zeitune last 15 double faults per match 1.5
- Combined average double faults per match 8.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have solid tiebreak records and recent matches have featured tiebreaks, making at least one tiebreak likely.
- Zeitune career tiebreak win percentage 53%
- Marti Pujolras career tiebreak win percentage 55%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates suggest a total around 7-8 aces, making over 7.5 slightly more likely.
- Zeitune last 15 aces per match 4.2, Marti Pujolras 3.2
- Combined average aces per match 7.4
- Zeitune height 196cm, Marti Pujolras 185cm
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Alex Marti Pujolras

6W 9L

6-3 6-0#346Oriol Roca Batalla

6-0 6-1—Oleg Covian Roca de Togores

6-1 3-6 6-1#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

7-6(2) 6-3#541Gerard Campana Lee

7-6(1) 6-4#607Lorenzo Bocchi

7-6(5) 5-7 6-4#897Maximilian Neuchrist

6-4 4-6 6-2#561Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-4 6-0#496Dusan Obradovic

6-3 6-4#225Oliver Crawford

6-4 6-4#781Abel Forger

6-1 6-4#230Cezar Cretu

6-2 2-6 6-4#682Samir Hamza Reguig

6-2 6-3#634N. Vijay Sundar Prashanth

6-3 6-1#320Max Hans Rehberg

6-3 4-6 6-2#401Andrej Martin

Maximo Zeitune

9W 6L

6-2 6-1#148Pedro Martinez Portero

6-2 4-6 7-6(1)#285Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#495Giuseppe La Vela

6-4 6-1—Filippo Francesco Garbero

7-5 7-6(4)#878Bastian Malla

6-2 7-5—Felipe De Dios

6-4 4-6 6-2#1557Nicolas Bruna

3-6 6-2 6-3#465Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-4 6-1#744Juan Sebastian Osorio

6-0 6-3—Vitor Costa Goncalves

6-1 6-1—Ivan Dreycopp

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#740Nicolas Zanellato

6-4 3-6 7-6(3)#515Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6-4 6-0#423Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

6-2 7-6(5)#385Carlos Maria Zarate

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

APAlex Marti PujolrasPujolras

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Maximo ZeituneZeituneMZ

Maximo Zeitune carries the stronger recent form — Alex Marti Pujolras's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In59.8%+7.8pp67.6%

1st Serve Won67.1%+2.3pp69.4%

2nd Serve Won41.2%+14.3pp55.5%

Aces / Match3.2+1.04.2

Double Faults / Match7.25.7 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.2%+1.7pp39.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted54.7%+18.6pp36.1%

Break Pts Saved60.1%+11.7pp71.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.1%+3.0pp52.1%

Serve · 0–5

59.8%1st Serve In+7.8pp67.6%

67.1%1st Serve Won+2.3pp69.4%

41.2%2nd Serve Won+14.3pp55.5%

3.2Aces / Match+1.04.2

7.2Double Faults / Match5.7 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

41.2%Return Pts Won+1.7pp39.5%

Pressure · 1–1

54.7%Break Pts Converted+18.6pp36.1%

60.1%Break Pts Saved+11.7pp71.8%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won+3.0pp52.1%