FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Peter Makk #553Hungary0Benjamin Pietri #786France2

Sets 2-6 · 4-6Sun 6 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePeter Makk · 233 places

Peter Makk

Hungary

Hungarian right-hander born 20 October 2001. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; public ranking sources show a substantial rise during 2026 rather than a clearly sourced decline.

Current ranking: #553
Peak ranking: #546
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Benjamin Pietri

France

French right-hander born 31 July 1996. His 2026 record through August was concentrated on hard courts, where he had played 31 of 34 recorded singles matches.

Current ranking: #786
Peak ranking: #663 · 2021
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 22:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Makk is the better player on paper but has poor recent hard-court form, making the 1.15 price unappealing.

Pietri's hard-court experience and competitive stats suggest a closer match than odds imply. Consider over 21.5 total games or Makk 2-1 in set betting as alternative angles.

Context

Makk, ranked 509, has built his recent success on clay, where he won 8 of 11 matches in the last 15.
On hard courts his sample is small but weaker: 50% wins and only 33.6% return points won, compared to 42.2% on clay. This match is on hard, so his recent clay dominance may not translate directly.
- Last 15 on clay: 8-3 record, 42.2% return points won.
- Last 15 on hard: 2-2 record, 33.6% return points won.
- Hard sample is only 4 matches, so confidence is limited.
Pietri, ranked 786, has played most of his recent matches on hard courts.
His hard-court record is just below .500, but he has beaten players ranked near or below him and lost to several ranked above him. Against Makk, who is ranked 509, Pietri will face a higher-ranked opponent, but his recent hard-court experience could keep the match close.
- Last 13 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 7 losses.
- Wins over opponents ranked 457, 750, 851, 887, 893.
- Losses to opponents ranked 303, 360, 474, 491, 614, 709, 882.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Peter Makk

1.15fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Makk's superior recent overall form and ranking give him an edge, but the odds heavily overprice him relative to his hard-court performance.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Makk's superior recent form and higher ranking give him the edge, though Pietri's hard-court experience keeps it competitive.
- Peter Makk last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Benjamin Pietri 7-8 (46.7%)
- Makk last 15 on hard: 2-2, but overall recent form stronger with 8-3 on clay in same window
- Pietri last 15 on hard: 6-7, with losses to lower-ranked opponents (Reco #882, McCormick #709)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPeter MakkEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches, and Pietri's tendency to play longer matches supports the over.
- Makk last 15 average games per match: 20.9 (313 games / 15 matches)
- Pietri last 15 average games per match: 22.6 (339 games / 15 matches)
- Pietri's last 15 matches have gone to three sets 5 times, increasing total games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have been close in recent matches for both players, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Makk last 15 first set average games: 9.3 (based on parsed sets)
- Pietri last 15 first set average games: 9.7
- Both players have similar first set competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Makk's stronger serve and break point saving in recent matches should help him start well.
- Makk first set win conversion career 88%, Pietri 89%
- Makk last 15 first serve points won 72.4% vs Pietri 66.6%
- Makk last 15 break points saved 55.1% vs Pietri 52.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPeter MakkEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Makk's serve is a weapon, and if the match goes three sets, total aces could exceed 7.5.
- Makk last 15 aces per match: 4.4
- Pietri last 15 aces per match: 2.1
- Combined average aces per match: 6.5, but Makk's higher ace rate could push total over
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The heavy favorite price on Makk ignores his poor recent hard-court form and Pietri's competitive hard-court stats.

Peter Makk

10W 5L

6-4 7-5#824Oskari Paldanius

6-3 6-1#260Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-4 7-5#874Marcus Walters

7-6(4) 6-3—Roan Jones

6-3 6-3—Matthias Ujvary

6-4 6-2#645John Hallquist Lithen

7-5 6-4#825Nico Hipfl

6-3 6-4—Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka

6-4 3-6 7-5—Radovan Michalik

2-6 6-3 7-5#198Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-1 6-1#367Francesco Forti

6-1 6-0#898Jesse Delaney

4-6 6-3 6-0#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-3 7-6(6)#629Ramkumar Ramanathan

6-1 7-6(4)#252Felix Balshaw

Benjamin Pietri

7W 8L

6-4 6-2#882Alexandre Reco

6-1 6-4#750Adhithya Ganesan

7-6(0) 7-6(3)#474Pavel Lagutin

6-3 6-3#709Tristan Mccormick

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#491Izan Almazan Valiente

7-6(1) 4-6 6-2#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#457Alafia Ayeni

1-6 6-4 6-0#851Julio Cesar Porras

7-6(7) 6-2#360Lui Maxted

6-1 7-5#303Florent Bax

6-0 6-3—Pablo Pradat

6-4 7-6(5)#639Matisse Bobichon

6-4 6-4#893Mathieu Scaglia

3-6 6-3 6-0#893Peter Buldorini

7-5 6-4#614Lukas Pokorny

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PMPeter MakkMakk

Last 15

7–0

9 core stats · 2 even

Benjamin PietriPietriBP

Peter Makk carries the stronger recent form — Benjamin Pietri's route runs through return pts won.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In60.7%+1.1pp59.6%

1st Serve Won72.4%+5.8pp66.6%

2nd Serve Won51.9%+2.7pp49.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.4+2.32.1

Double Faults / Match3.80.7 fewer4.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won40.0%—39.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted44.0%—43.4%

Break Pts Saved55.1%+2.9pp52.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.0%+2.3pp49.7%

Serve · 5–0

60.7%1st Serve In+1.1pp59.6%

72.4%1st Serve Won+5.8pp66.6%

51.9%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp49.2%

4.4Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+2.32.1

3.8Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer4.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

40.0%Return Pts Won—39.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

44.0%Break Pts Converted—43.4%

55.1%Break Pts Saved+2.9pp52.2%

Points · 1–0

52.0%Total Pts Won+2.3pp49.7%