PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Francisco Rocha #803Portugal0Tiago Pereira #352Portugal2

Sets 4-6 · 5-7Tue 1 Sept 2026, 16:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions6–275%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTiago Pereira · 451 places

Francisco Rocha

Portugal

Reached a career-best No. 675 in July 2025. Current ATP singles ranking is No. 803.

Current ranking: #803
Peak ranking: #675 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

Reached a career-best No. 185 in July 2025. Current ATP singles ranking is No. 352.

Current ranking: #352
Peak ranking: #185 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 06:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Tiago Pereira is the clear favorite over Francisco Rocha based on superior recent form and clay-court performance.

Pereira's strong serve and return stats on clay should lead to a straight-set victory, but the 1.10 odds offer little value. Best betting angles include Pereira to win the first set and over 21.5 total games.

Context

Pereira, ranked 352, has been the more consistent player in recent weeks and has a solid clay record this season.
Pereira's 66.7% win rate in the last 15 matches and 71.4% on clay contrast with Rocha's 46.7% overall and 0-2 on clay. On this surface, Pereira's return points won (47.3%) and first-serve points won (76.6%) are significantly better than Rocha's 35.8% and 61.5%, suggesting Pereira should control baseline rallies and create more break chances.
- Pereira last 15 overall: 10-5 record, 66.7% win rate; Rocha: 7-8, 46.7%.
- Pereira last 15 on clay: 5-2 record, 71.4% win rate; Rocha: 0-2.
- Pereira clay return points won: 47.3%; Rocha: 35.8%.
- Pereira clay first-serve points won: 76.6%; Rocha: 61.5%.
Rocha, ranked 803, has a 2-0 head-to-head lead over Pereira despite the ranking gap.
The two previous matches were on hard courts, not clay, so the surface changes the dynamic. However, Rocha's ability to win both encounters, including a comeback in 2024, shows he can trouble Pereira. The small sample and different surface limit how much weight this carries.
- 2024: Rocha won 2-6 7-6(1) 6-1.
- 2022: Rocha won 6-4 6-4.
- Both matches were on hard courts.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tiago Pereira

1.10fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Pereira's superior recent form and strong clay surface fit give him a clear edge over Rocha, who has struggled on clay recently.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Pereira's superior recent form and strong clay surface fit give him a clear edge over Rocha, who has struggled on clay recently.
- Tiago Pereira last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Francisco Rocha 7-8 (46.7%)
- Pereira last 15 clay record 5-2 (71.4%) with 63.5% games won; Rocha 0-2 on clay in same window
- Pereira ranking 352 vs Rocha 803; Pereira 2026 clay record 13-10 vs Rocha 2-5
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTiago PereiraEstimated chance65%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches, and the H2H suggests a potentially close contest, supporting a higher total games line.
- Rocha last 15 average match duration 133.1 minutes; Pereira 113.1 minutes
- Rocha last 15 games won 50.4%; Pereira 56.7%
- H2H 2024 match went 3 sets with 22 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Rocha last 15 average games per set 5.1; Pereira 5.6
- Pereira last 15 clay average games per set 5.8
- H2H 2024 first set went to 8 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Similar to the first set, the second set is expected to be closely contested, supporting over 9.5 games.
- Rocha last 15 average games per set 5.1; Pereira 5.6
- Pereira last 15 clay average games per set 5.8
- H2H 2024 second set went to 13 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pereira's stronger clay serve and return metrics should allow him to take the opening set.
- Pereira first set win conversion career 85% vs Rocha 84%
- Pereira last 15 clay first serve points won 76.6% vs Rocha 61.5%
- Pereira last 15 clay return points won 47.3% vs Rocha 35.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTiago PereiraEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a history of tiebreaks, and the competitive nature of the match increases the likelihood of at least one tiebreak.
- Rocha tiebreak win percentage 48%; Pereira 46%
- Rocha last 15 matches include 3 tiebreaks; Pereira includes 4 tiebreaks
- H2H 2024 match included a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 3.5 aces per match, making over 6.5 total aces a reasonable expectation.
- Rocha last 15 aces per match 3.7; Pereira 3.4
- Combined average aces per match 7.1
- Rocha career aces 450 in 217 matches; Pereira 814 in 369 matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages suggest a total above 5.5 is likely.
- Rocha last 15 double faults per match 3.6; Pereira 2.2
- Combined average double faults per match 5.8
- Rocha career double faults 467 in 217 matches; Pereira 553 in 369 matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Rocha's poor recent clay form and low ranking make the long odds misleading despite his H2H edge.

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W2-6 7-6(1) 6-1Francisco Rocha#803vTiago Pereira#352Feb 14, 2024

W6-4 6-4Francisco Rocha#803vTiago Pereira#352Jul 11, 2022

2 total meetings

Francisco Rocha

7W 8L

7-6(5) 6-3#663Tiago Cacao

6-4 6-4#172Gonzalo Bueno

6-4 6-7(8) 6-2#663Tiago Cacao

7-5 6-3—Lucas Marionneau

6-7(1) 6-1 7-6(5)—Matisse Farzam

6-3 3-6 7-5#466Emile Hudd

4-6 7-6(8) 6-1#298Mert Alkaya

4-2 ret.#336Eliakim Coulibaly

6-4 6-7(7) 6-4—Goncalo Marques

7-5 6-4#595Karan Singh

7-6(4) 6-4#532Fabrizio Andaloro

6-2 6-3—Dominique Rolland

6-3 7-6(3)#406Garrett Johns

4-6 6-3 6-2#349Tiago Torres

6-3 6-1—Francisco Faria

Tiago Pereira

10W 5L

7-5 7-6(4)#878Niccolo Catini

3-6 6-4 6-4#718Tristan Mccormick

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#648Alberto Barroso Campos

7-5 6-1—Rodrigo Leal

6-3 6-1#266Max Basing

3-6 6-3 6-4#401Vadym Ursu

6-1 7-5#404Oleg Prihodko

6-4 6-1#900Niklas Guttau

6-2 6-4#837Alan Wazny

6-2 6-0—Massimo Pizzigoni

6-3 6-0—Jan Hrazdil

6-3 1-6 7-6(5)#172Gonzalo Bueno

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(7)#385Ilya Ivashka

6-4 7-6(4)#387Alejo Sanchez Quilez

5-7 7-6(5) 6-3#245Yi Zhou

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FRFrancisco RochaRocha

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Tiago PereiraPereiraTP

Tiago Pereira carries the stronger recent form — Francisco Rocha's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In53.1%+1.4pp54.5%

1st Serve Won69.0%+3.8pp72.8%

2nd Serve Won46.7%+7.8pp54.5%

Aces / Match3.7+0.33.4

Double Faults / Match3.61.4 fewer2.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.6%—41.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.2%+2.1pp44.1%

Break Pts Saved51.9%+12.8pp64.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.1%+2.9pp53.0%

Serve · 1–4

53.1%1st Serve In+1.4pp54.5%

69.0%1st Serve Won+3.8pp72.8%

46.7%2nd Serve Won+7.8pp54.5%

3.7Aces / Match+0.33.4

3.6Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer2.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.6%Return Pts Won—41.7%

Pressure · 1–1

46.2%Break Pts Converted+2.1pp44.1%

51.9%Break Pts Saved+12.8pp64.7%

Points · 0–1

50.1%Total Pts Won+2.9pp53.0%