United StatesATP US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Jurij Rodionov #134Austria3Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard #92France0

Sets 7-6 · 6-0 · 7-6Mon 31 Aug 2026, 17:22 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard · 42 places

Jurij Rodionov

Austria

Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 87 on 19 February 2024. Left-handed Austrian; no reliably sourced current injury or decline narrative was identified.

Current ranking: #134
Peak ranking: #87 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

France

Reached a career-high No. 29 on 24 February 2025. The Frenchman is a 2.01m right-hander with a one-handed backhand; reliable sources reviewed did not identify a confirmed current injury issue or a stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #92
Peak ranking: #29 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 201 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 03:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Rodionov's superior hard-court form and return game give him a clear edge over Mpetshi Perricard, whose elite serve may keep sets close but is unlikely to overcome his poor return numbers.

The best value is on Rodionov to win the match at 2.05 (13.2-point edge), with additional value on Rodionov to win the first set. Avoid the game handicap and set1 total games markets, as they are mispriced against the surface evidence.

Context

Rodionov, 27, is a left-hander ranked 143 and has a 75% win rate in his last four hard-court matches.
His recent wins came against opponents ranked 100, 236, and 216, showing he can handle lower-ranked players. Mpetshi Perricard, ranked 104, has lost to players ranked 73, 390, and 71 in his last three hard-court outings, suggesting Rodionov may have a slight edge in current form.
- Rodionov last 15 hard-court record: 3-1 (75%)
- Mpetshi Perricard last 15 hard-court record: 0-3 (0%)
- Rodionov recent hard-court wins: vs Fearnley (rank 100), Ferreira Silva (236), Coppejans (216)
- Mpetshi Perricard recent hard-court losses: vs Brooksby (73), Svajda (390), Van De Zandschulp (71)
Rodionov, 27, is the left-hander in this matchup and reached the US Open main draw for the first time after four failed qualifying attempts.
He arrives after three qualifying wins, so he has recent match play on these courts but also extra workload before a best-of-five first round. Mpetshi Perricard has not played qualifying and comes in fresher.
- The 29 August US Open qualifier update lists Rodionov against Mpetshi Perricard in the first round and records his first successful qualification after four previous attempts.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Aug 2026, 03:58 · Europe/BucharestUS Open — Men's qualifiers of the 2026 US Openwww.usopen.org · 29 Aug 2026
Mpetshi Perricard, 23, is a 201cm right-hander with a one-handed backhand and a powerful serve.
His first-serve points won is 75.3% and he wins 78% of first serves in his career, so he can hold easily. However, his return points won is only 29.6%, which may allow Rodionov to stay in rallies and pressure his second serve.
- Mpetshi Perricard last 15 aces per match: 13.9
- Rodionov last 15 aces per match: 7.2
- Mpetshi Perricard last 15 first-serve points won: 75.3%
- Mpetshi Perricard last 15 return points won: 29.6%
Rodionov's return points won is 37.5% in his last 15 matches, above the tour average.
Mpetshi Perricard's second-serve points won is 47.4%, which is vulnerable. If Rodionov can attack the second serve, he may create break chances, but Mpetshi Perricard's high ace count could limit those opportunities.
- Rodionov last 15 return points won: 37.5%
- Mpetshi Perricard last 15 second-serve points won: 47.4%
- Mpetshi Perricard last 15 double faults per match: 3.3

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 3.5

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's 60% estimate is below the 71.4% implied probability, so this is not a value bet.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Rodionov's superior recent form, especially on hard courts, and better return/break-point profile give him the edge in this Bo5 first-round match.
- Rodionov last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Mpetshi Perricard 6-9 (40%)
- Rodionov hard-court last 15 record 3-1 (75%), Mpetshi Perricard 0-3 on hard in last 15
- Rodionov return points won 37.5% vs Mpetshi Perricard 29.6% overall last 15
- Rodionov break points saved 68.1% vs Mpetshi Perricard 61.7% overall last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJurij RodionovEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Mpetshi Perricard's big serve and Rodionov's competitive return game suggests a longer match with over 38.5 total games.
- Rodionov last 15 average games per match 22.0, Mpetshi Perricard 26.5
- Both players have high ace rates: Rodionov 7.2, Mpetshi Perricard 13.9 per match
- Bo5 format increases total games potential
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 38.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving from both players should keep the first set close, likely exceeding 9.5 games.
- Mpetshi Perricard's first-serve points won 75.3% overall last 15, making his service games tough to break
- Rodionov's first-serve points won 73.2% overall last 15
- Both players have high hold rates, suggesting a tight first set
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Rodionov's strong recent momentum and solid first-set conversion rate make him likely to take the opening set.
- Rodionov first-set win conversion career 84%, Mpetshi Perricard 83%
- Rodionov hard-court last 15 first-serve points won 70.4%, Mpetshi Perricard 68%
- Rodionov last 5 matches: 4 wins, 1 loss; Mpetshi Perricard last 5: 1 win, 4 losses
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJurij RodionovEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Given Mpetshi Perricard's serving ability and Rodionov's solid but not overwhelming form, the match is likely to go at least four sets.
- Mpetshi Perricard's serve can keep sets close, as seen in his recent losses
- Rodionov's last 15 sets won 58.8%, but not dominant enough for a straight-set sweep
- Bo5 format and competitive matchup favor at least 4 sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mpetshi Perricard's elite ace rate and Rodionov's solid serving make over 21.5 total aces likely in a best-of-five match.
- Mpetshi Perricard averages 13.9 aces per match overall last 15, 9.0 on hard
- Rodionov averages 7.2 aces per match overall last 15, 5.5 on hard
- Combined average aces per match on hard: 14.5, but Bo5 can extend
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The serving strength of both players, especially Mpetshi Perricard, makes a tiebreak in this match probable.
- Mpetshi Perricard tiebreak win percentage career 59%, Rodionov 55%
- Mpetshi Perricard has played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches (e.g., vs Hanfmann, Moutet)
- Both players have strong serves, increasing tiebreak likelihood
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and a longer match could push the total over 6.5.
- Rodionov averages 3.2 double faults per match overall, 2.5 on hard
- Mpetshi Perricard averages 3.3 double faults per match overall, 4.0 on hard
- Combined average on hard: 6.5, Bo5 may increase
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Mpetshi Perricard's poor hard-court form and weak return game make covering -1.5 games unlikely despite his big serve.

Previous match context available

Jurij Rodionov

9W 6L

4-6 6-4 6-4#100Jacob Fearnley

6-2 3-6 6-1#236Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-1 6-4#216Kimmer Coppejans

6-1 6-4#157Rei Sakamoto

7-6(5) 6-4#606Jamie Mackenzie

7-6(3) 6-3#490Niels Mcdonald

6-3 6-4#284Pedro Boscardin Dias

6-2 7-6(4)#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-4 6-2#171Joel Schwaerzler

6-4 7-6(4)#188Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-2#374Andrey Chepelev

4-6 7-5 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-3 6-2#338Mathys Erhard

4-6 7-6(4) 6-2#174Remy Bertola

6-4 6-4#224Oliver Crawford

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6W 9L

6-3 6-2#73Jenson Brooksby

6-1 1-6 6-2#390Trevor Svajda

6-2 3-6 6-3#71Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-7(6) 7-6(9) 6-2 6-3#54Yannick Hanfmann

6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(5)#62Corentin Moutet

6-3 6-4#89Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-4 6-3#311Johannus Monday

7-6(5) 7-6(3)#16Alexander Bublik

7-6(1) 6-2#158Gauthier Onclin

7-5 6-7(4) 7-6(4)#98Roman Safiullin

5-7 7-5 6-1 6-4#5Novak Djokovic

6-4 7-6(8)#53Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-3 7-6(3)#52Quentin Halys

6-0 6-3#95Aleksandar Vukic

2-6 7-5 6-4#108Otto Virtanen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JRJurij RodionovRodionov

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardPerricardGP

Jurij Rodionov carries the stronger recent form — Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In55.6%+13.4pp69.0%

1st Serve Won73.2%+2.1pp75.3%

2nd Serve Won50.6%+3.2pp47.4%

Aces / Match7.2+6.713.9

Double Faults / Match3.2—3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won37.5%+7.9pp29.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted42.9%+11.7pp31.2%

Break Pts Saved68.1%+6.4pp61.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.7%+2.2pp48.5%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

55.6%1st Serve In+13.4pp69.0%

73.2%1st Serve Won+2.1pp75.3%

50.6%2nd Serve Won+3.2pp47.4%

7.2Aces / Match+6.713.9

3.2Double Faults / Match—3.3

Return · 1–0

37.5%Return Pts Won+7.9pp29.6%

Pressure · 2–0

42.9%Break Pts Converted+11.7pp31.2%

68.1%Break Pts Saved+6.4pp61.7%

Points · 1–0

50.7%Total Pts Won+2.2pp48.5%

Jurij Rodionov

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Jurij Rodionov

Jurij Rodionov

Over 3.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard -1.5 @ 2.00

Jurij Rodionov

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Stat Battle