GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Max Schoenhaus #312Germany1Daniel Masur #397Germany2

Sets 7-6 · 4-6 · 4-6Wed 26 Aug 2026, 10:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions6–186%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMax Schoenhaus · 85 places

Max Schoenhaus

Germany

A 19-year-old German right-hander with a one-handed backhand. His current No. 312 ranking is close to his published career high of No. 310; no reliable explicit preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #312
Peak ranking: #310
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Daniel Masur

Germany

Masur reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 176 in March 2022. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface; current match data lists him at No. 397.

Current ranking: #397
Peak ranking: #176 · 2022
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Daniel Masur's superior clay serve and break-point efficiency give him a slight edge over Max Schoenhaus despite the ranking gap.

Back Masur on the moneyline at 3.00 for value, and consider over 21.5 total games. Avoid the set 1 winner market on Masur due to Schoenhaus's current form in Augsburg.

Context

Masur's clay record is 5-2 with 68.8% sets won and 53.2% games won (7 matches tracked).
- Schoenhaus's clay record is 8-6 with 56.7% sets won and 51.8% games won (14 matches tracked).
- Masur wins 77.3% of first-serve points on clay vs Schoenhaus's 68.7%.
- Masur converts 47.4% of break points on clay vs Schoenhaus's 35.8%.
Schoenhaus beat Mili Poljicak 6-4, 6-3 in the first round on 24 August.
- Poljicak is ranked 263, while Masur is ranked 392 but has better recent clay stats.
- Schoenhaus's last five clay losses were against players ranked 254, 339, 169, 237, and 206.
Masur's last three clay wins were against opponents ranked 359, 746, and unranked.
- His most recent clay loss was to Arthur Nagel, ranked 396, in three sets.
- Schoenhaus is ranked 317, which is higher than most of Masur's recent clay opponents.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Masur's recent clay serve and break-point efficiency edge, despite a smaller sample, supports a slight upset over the higher-ranked Schoenhaus.
- Masur last 15 on clay: 5-2 record, 68.8% sets won, 53.2% games won (7 matches tracked).
- Schoenhaus last 15 on clay: 8-6 record, 56.7% sets won, 51.8% games won (14 matches tracked).
- Masur first serve points won on clay last 15: 77.3% vs Schoenhaus 68.7%.
- Masur break point conversion on clay last 15: 47.4% vs Schoenhaus 35.8%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniel MasurEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The balanced clay form and Masur's longer average match duration suggest a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Schoenhaus clay matches last 15 average 20.3 games per match.
- Masur clay matches last 15 average 22.6 games per match.
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 51-53% on clay, indicating competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving and recent tight first sets on clay make an over 9.5 games in set one likely.
- Masur's last three clay matches have first sets of 7-6, 7-6, and 6-4.
- Schoenhaus's last five clay matches include first sets of 6-4, 6-1, 1-6, 7-5, and 6-4.
- Both players have first serve points won above 68% on clay, reducing early breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even with some lopsided second sets, the overall competitive level and serve hold rates support a slight lean to over 9.5 games.
- Masur's last three clay matches have second sets of 6-3, 6-3, and 6-3.
- Schoenhaus's last five clay matches include second sets of 6-3, 6-0, 6-3, 6-3, and 6-4.
- Both players have second serve points won around 53-54% on clay.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Masur's strong recent first-set form on clay gives him a marginal edge in the opening set.
- Masur has won his last two opening sets on clay (vs Marterer and Fix).
- Schoenhaus lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 clay matches.
- Masur first set win conversion career: 82% vs Schoenhaus 78%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaniel MasurEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates on clay, making under 4.5 double faults a reasonable lean.
- Masur averages 1.3 double faults per match on clay last 15 (6 matches tracked).
- Schoenhaus averages 2.1 double faults per match on clay last 15 (14 matches tracked).
- Combined average double faults on clay: approximately 3.4.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay ace rates suggest a combined total near the 8.5 line, with a slight lean to the over based on recent serving strength.
- Masur averages 4.7 aces per match on clay last 15 (6 matches tracked).
- Schoenhaus averages 4.1 aces per match on clay last 15 (14 matches tracked).
- Combined average aces per match on clay: approximately 8.8.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Max Schoenhaus

8W 7L

6-4 6-3#263Mili Poljicak

6-1 6-3#254Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

1-6 6-0 ret.#118Zsombor Piros

5-7 6-3 7-6(3)#339Marko Topo

6-4 6-2#169Federico Agustin Gomez

6-4 6-1#237Max Houkes

7-5 6-1#740Andres Santamarta Roig

7-5 6-4#206Laslo Djere

6-3 6-3#59Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-2 6-4#15Learner Tien

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#235Alejandro Moro Canas

6-3 7-5#140Hugo Dellien

6-4 6-3#429Mika Petkovic

6-4 6-3#533Marcel Zielinski

6-1 6-4#594Kai Wehnelt

Daniel Masur

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#359Petr Brunclik

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#396Arthur Nagel

7-6(7) 6-3#746Maximilian Marterer

7-6(8) 6-3—David Fix

6-4 6-3#846Calvin Mueller

6-1 6-2#344Oriol Roca Batalla

6-7(5) 6-3 6-1#834Oskari Paldanius

6-1 6-4#239Jay Clarke

6-2 6-2#625Bruno Kuzuhara

6-2 6-4#750Joshua Sheehy

6-3 6-7(4) 6-3#286Petr Bar Biryukov

6-4 6-2#690Leo Vithoontien

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#124Bu Yunchaokete

6-3 6-2#299Matthew Dellavedova

6-2 6-0—Zhengyu Sun

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMax SchoenhausSchoenhaus

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Daniel MasurMasurDM

Daniel Masur carries the stronger recent form — Max Schoenhaus's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1558.2%—58.7%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1568.4%+8.0pp76.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1553.6%+0.8pp52.8%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.3+1.15.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.30.4 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.1%—37.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1535.1%+9.5pp44.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1557.1%+7.1pp50.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.7%+1.9pp51.6%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

58.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15—58.7%

68.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.0pp76.4%

53.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp52.8%

4.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.15.4

2.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.4 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.1%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—37.9%

Pressure · 1–1

35.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+9.5pp44.6%

57.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+7.1pp50.0%

Points · 0–1

49.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.9pp51.6%