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Predictions graded

Yeon Woo Ku #176South Korea2Astra Sharma #894Australia0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Tue 25 Aug 2026, 20:56 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions7–278%

Edges6–275%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYeon Woo Ku · 718 places

Yeon Woo Ku

South Korea

Ku reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 171 in July 2026. No verified active injury, withdrawal, or current comeback context surfaced in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #176
Peak ranking: #171 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Astra Sharma

Australia

Sharma's career-best singles ranking is No. 84. Her official WTA profile lists a 2023 WTA 125 Bucharest title and 2025 ITF success; no verified active injury or current return-from-absence signal surfaced.

Current ranking: #894
Peak ranking: #84 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 16:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Yeon Woo Ku is a heavy favorite over Astra Sharma based on superior hard-court form, ranking, and return game.

Ku's straight-set win is likely, and the best value lies in under 19.5 total games and Ku -4.5 games on the handicap. Sharma's poor 2026 hard-court record (0-4) and low ranking make her a significant underdog.

Context

Sharma's last 15 hard-court record is 3-12, with only 45% of games won.
- In 2026, she is 0-4 on hard courts, including losses to players ranked 513 and 564.
- Her return points won on hard courts is just 39.3%, indicating difficulty breaking serve.
Ku defeated Lucrezia Stefanini (ranked 142) twice in June 2026.
- She also beat Mary Stoiana (ranked 130) and Darja Vidmanova (ranked 88) in July 2026.
- Her hard-court record in the last 15 matches is 8-6, with a 52.9% games won percentage.
Sharma averages 4.5 double faults per match in her last 15 matches.
- Her second-serve points won is only 45.6%, below the tour average.
- Ku's return points won on hard courts is 48.3%, which is solid.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Ku's superior recent hard-court form, return game, and ranking give her a decisive edge over Sharma, who has struggled badly on hard courts in 2026.
- Yeon Woo Ku last 15 hard-court record: 8-6 (57.1%), with 52.9% games won and 48.3% return points won.
- Astra Sharma last 15 hard-court record: 3-12 (20%), with 45% games won and 39.3% return points won.
- Yeon Woo Ku ranking 176 vs Astra Sharma ranking 894; Ku has 17 hard-court wins in 2026 vs Sharma's 0-4 in 2026.
- Ku's recent form includes wins over top-150 opponents (Stefanini, Stoiana, Vidmanova) while Sharma has lost to opponents ranked 513 and 564.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYeon Woo KuEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ku's consistent ability to win games by comfortable margins makes a -3.5 game handicap likely.
- Ku's average games won per match is 11.8, while Sharma's is 9.3.
- Ku's hard-court games won percentage is 52.9%, Sharma's is 45%.
- In Ku's recent wins, she has won by margins of 7, 8, or more games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonYeon Woo Ku -3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given Ku's dominance and Sharma's poor form, a straight-set win with fewer than 21.5 games is likely.
- Ku's last 15 matches average 22.8 total games, but her wins often come in straight sets with fewer games (e.g., 6-2 6-3, 6-2 6-2).
- Sharma's last 15 matches average 20.6 total games, with many lopsided losses (6-2 6-2, 6-2 6-0).
- Ku's games won percentage is 51.8% overall, but against weaker opponents she dominates.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Ku's strong serving and Sharma's weak return game point to a relatively quick first set.
- Ku has won several first sets 6-2 or 6-3 in recent matches (e.g., 6-2 vs Rogers, 6-2 vs Goto).
- Sharma has lost first sets 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 in multiple recent matches.
- Ku's first-serve points won is 60.9% on hard courts, allowing her to hold serve efficiently.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
If Ku maintains her level, the second set is likely to be similarly one-sided.
- Ku's second-set performance in wins often includes 6-2 or 6-3 scorelines.
- Sharma's second-set losses have been by scores like 6-2, 6-4, 6-3.
- Ku's break point conversion rate of 54.3% suggests she can break Sharma's serve multiple times.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Ku's consistent first-serve and Sharma's poor opening-set record make Ku the likely set 1 winner.
- Ku has won 8 of her last 15 matches and often starts strong, with a 66.9% first-serve in rate.
- Sharma has lost the first set in 10 of her last 15 matches, including all four 2026 hard-court losses.
- Ku's first-set win conversion career is 85%, indicating she capitalizes on early leads.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYeon Woo KuEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Ku's superior break point conversion and Sharma's overall set-win struggles suggest Ku will also take the second set.
- Ku's second-set performance is supported by her 54.3% break point conversion rate in last 15 matches.
- Sharma's second-set record is weak, with only 30.3% sets won overall in last 15 matches.
- Ku has won 5 of her last 8 matches in straight sets, showing ability to close out matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonYeon Woo KuEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
The disparity in form and ranking strongly favors a straight-set win for Ku.
- Ku has won 5 of her last 8 matches in straight sets.
- Sharma has lost 10 of her last 15 matches in straight sets.
- Ku's superior ranking and form make a two-set victory probable.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Ku's expected straight-set win, a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Ku's recent matches have had tiebreaks in only 2 of her last 15 matches.
- Sharma's recent matches have had tiebreaks in 3 of her last 15 matches.
- Ku's dominance in straight sets reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, making over 7.5 double faults likely.
- Ku averages 3.9 double faults per match in last 15 matches.
- Sharma averages 4.5 double faults per match in last 15 matches.
- Combined average is 8.4 double faults per match, above the 7.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sharma's ace count may push the total over 5.5, though Ku's low ace rate makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Ku averages 0.9 aces per match on hard courts in last 15 matches.
- Sharma averages 2.8 aces per match in last 15 matches.
- Combined average is 3.7 aces per match, but Sharma's serve can produce more aces against weaker returners.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Yeon Woo Ku

8W 7L

6-1 4-6 6-3#171Mai Hontama

6-2 6-3#313Anna Sinclair Rogers

4-6 6-2 7-6(6)#892Emma Dong

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#246Caroline Dolehide

6-4 6-2#142Lucrezia Stefanini

6-4 2-6 6-2#130Mary Stoiana

3-6 6-3 6-4#88Darja Vidmanova

6-2 6-2#401Reina Goto

1-6 7-6(6) 6-4#367Miho Kuramochi

6-1 6-4#150Teodora Kostovic

6-4 6-3#88Darja Vidmanova

3-6 6-4 6-1#183Martyna Kubka

6-4 6-3#227Viktoria Hruncakova

6-4 7-5#142Lucrezia Stefanini

7-6(3) 6-2#306Savannah Broadus

Astra Sharma

3W 12L

6-3 6-4#513Carmen Andreea Herea

6-3 3-6 7-5#289Aoi Ito

7-6(3) 2-6 6-3#564Carson Branstine

6-2 6-2#83Kamilla Rakhimova

6-5 ret.#173Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah

3-6 6-2 6-2#172Kaja Juvan

6-2 6-0#89Katie Volynets

6-4 6-4#44Katerina Siniakova

2-6 6-3 6-3#125Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

7-5 6-4#154Lola Radivojevic

6-4 6-2#126Yue Yuan

7-5 7-5#83Kamilla Rakhimova

7-6(1) 6-3#29Ann Li

6-2 6-1#798Mihaela Buzarnescu

6-1 6-4#300Mina Hodzic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YKYeon Woo KuKu

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Astra SharmaSharmaAS

Yeon Woo Ku carries the stronger recent form — Astra Sharma's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In66.9%+6.3pp60.6%

1st Serve Won60.0%+5.0pp65.0%

2nd Serve Won43.5%+2.1pp45.6%

Aces / Match1.0+1.82.8

Double Faults / Match3.90.6 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.4%+8.1pp39.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted54.3%+9.5pp44.8%

Break Pts Saved49.6%+2.3pp51.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.9%+2.8pp48.1%

Serve · 2–3

66.9%1st Serve In+6.3pp60.6%

60.0%1st Serve Won+5.0pp65.0%

43.5%2nd Serve Won+2.1pp45.6%

1.0Aces / Match+1.82.8

3.9Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

47.4%Return Pts Won+8.1pp39.3%

Pressure · 1–1

54.3%Break Pts Converted+9.5pp44.8%

49.6%Break Pts Saved+2.3pp51.9%

Points · 1–0

50.9%Total Pts Won+2.8pp48.1%

Yeon Woo Ku #176South Korea2Astra Sharma #894Australia0

Player Profiles

Yeon Woo Ku

Astra Sharma

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yeon Woo Ku -4.5

Under 19.5

Under 9.5

Under 9.5

Yeon Woo Ku

Yeon Woo Ku

Yeon Woo Ku

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Yeon Woo Ku

Astra Sharma

Stat Battle