GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Facundo Mena #333Argentina2Max Hans Rehberg #332Germany0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Tue 25 Aug 2026, 14:20 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions1–614%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMax Hans Rehberg · 1 places

Facundo Mena

Argentina

Argentine right-hander, age 33. His verified singles career high is No. 127, reached on 12 September 2022; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #333
Peak ranking: #127 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Max Hans Rehberg

Germany

Rehberg reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 230 on 31 March 2025. He is a German right-hander from Munich; the available player-profile source lists hard courts as his strongest career surface.

Current ranking: #332
Peak ranking: #230 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 15:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Max Hans Rehberg is favored over Facundo Mena due to superior recent form and clay-court serve metrics, but the odds are too short.

The best value lies in the over 21.5 total games and over 9.5 games in the first set, as Mena's competitiveness should extend the match.

Context

Rehberg last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Mena 5-10 (33.3%).
- Rehberg beat world No. 121 Zsombor Piros and No. 140 Stefano Travaglia in straight sets in July.
- Mena has lost his last five matches, including straight-set defeats to Juan Manuel La Serna and Thomas Faurel.
Mena last15 first serve in 55.6% vs Rehberg 66.3%.
- Mena last15 second serve points won 45.7% vs Rehberg 58.6%.
- Mena last15 double faults per match 3.9 vs Rehberg 1.7.
Rehberg played on 18, 19, and 20 August in Cattolica, with his last match ending in a straight-sets loss to Filip Cristian Jianu.
- The Augsburg first round is on 24 August, giving Rehberg four days without a match.
- No current injury or withdrawal concerns were surfaced in the intel search.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Max Hans Rehberg

1.12fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Rehberg's superior recent form and stronger serve/return structure on clay give him a clear edge over Mena.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Max Hans Rehberg

1.22fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Rehberg's stronger recent serve and return numbers support taking the opening set, but the odds are heavily skewed.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Rehberg's superior recent form and stronger serve/return structure on clay give him a clear edge over Mena.
- Rehberg last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Mena 5-10 (33.3%)
- Rehberg clay last15 record 9-6 (60%) vs Mena clay last15 5-8 (38.5%)
- Rehberg last15 total points won 52.6% vs Mena 48.2%
- Rehberg last15 second serve points won 58.6% vs Mena 45.7%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMax Hans RehbergEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 100 minutes, and Mena's competitiveness in games suggests a longer match.
- Mena last15 average duration 107.9 minutes, Rehberg 106.5 minutes
- Mena last15 games won 46.7%, Rehberg 55.3%
- Mena last15 sets won 37.1%, Rehberg 61.8%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players have shown competitive first sets, with several tiebreaks and close scores in recent matches.
- Mena last15 first set average games: 9.3 (from recent form)
- Rehberg last15 first set average games: 9.1 (from recent form)
- Mena last15 tiebreak win pct 55%, Rehberg 54%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Rehberg's stronger first-serve and return numbers in the recent window support taking the opening set.
- Rehberg first set win conversion career 85% vs Mena 88%
- Rehberg last15 first serve points won 71.5% vs Mena 69.8%
- Rehberg last15 return points won 39.1% vs Mena 37.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMax Hans RehbergEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rehberg's low double fault rate and Mena's moderate rate suggest a total under 5.5 double faults.
- Mena last15 double faults per match 3.9, Rehberg 1.7
- Mena career double faults 1687 in 951 matches (1.8 per match), Rehberg 627 in 269 (2.3 per match)
- Rehberg last15 second serve points won 58.6%
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mena's higher ace rate and Rehberg's solid first-serve percentage could combine for a moderate ace total.
- Mena last15 aces per match 5.5, Rehberg 2.5
- Mena career aces 3056 in 951 matches (3.2 per match), Rehberg 770 in 269 (2.9 per match)
- Mena last15 first serve in 55.6%, Rehberg 66.3%
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The heavy favorite price on Rehberg does not reflect Mena's competitive recent sets and Rehberg's occasional losses to lower-ranked players.

Facundo Mena

5W 10L

6-3 6-3#288Juan Manuel La Serna

7-6(2) 6-2#331Thomas Faurel

6-3 7-6(1)#541Tomasz Berkieta

6-4 6-3#354Ivan Marrero Curbelo

7-6(5) 7-6(6)#877Lorenzo Claverie

5-7 6-4 6-4#658Tristan Mccormick

3-6 6-3 7-5#460Alafia Ayeni

6-2 6-0#434Valerio Aboian

6-2 2-6 6-1#499Miguel Tobon

7-5 6-2#453Daniel Dutra Da Silva

7-5 6-4#434Valerio Aboian

7-5 3-1 ret.#236Juan Pablo Varillas

7-6(4) 4-6 6-2#207Luka Pavlovic

2-6 6-2 7-6(2)#188Tristan Schoolkate

6-2 6-1#413Patrick Zahraj

Max Hans Rehberg

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#284Filip Cristian Jianu

6-4 6-1#218Kimmer Coppejans

5-3 ret.#732Jakub Nicod

6-1 5-7 7-5#646Saba Purtseladze

6-1 6-4#194Diego Dedura

4-6 7-6(3) 7-6(4)#272Daniel Elahi Galan

6-3 6-1#140Stefano Travaglia

7-6(5) 4-6 6-4#246Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#357Anton Matusevich

6-3 6-4#121Zsombor Piros

6-4 6-3#502Alexander Donski

6-3 6-4#233Guido Ivan Justo

2-6 7-5 6-4#77Jan Choinski

6-4 6-4#214Moise Kouame

6-1 6-2#442Dylan Dietrich

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FMFacundo MenaMena

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Max Hans RehbergRehbergMR

Max Hans Rehberg carries the stronger recent form — Facundo Mena's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1555.6%+10.7pp66.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1569.8%+1.7pp71.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1545.7%+12.9pp58.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/155.5+3.02.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.92.2 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1537.4%+1.7pp39.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1536.8%+5.8pp42.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1564.3%—64.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1548.2%+4.4pp52.6%

Serve · 1–4

55.6%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+10.7pp66.3%

69.8%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.7pp71.5%

45.7%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+12.9pp58.6%

5.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+3.02.5

3.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.2 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

37.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.7pp39.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

36.8%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.8pp42.6%

64.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15—64.5%

Points · 0–1

48.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.4pp52.6%