Clara Tauson #3022 – 1Renata Zarazua #83Mexico1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Tauson's higher ranking and stronger serve metrics give her a slight edge, but Zarazua's recent hard-court form and H2H win keep this close.

• Clara Tauson last 15 overall record 6-9 (40%), but last 8 hard-court matches 4-4 (50%) with wins over top-60 opponents.
• Renata Zarazua last 15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%), but last 11 hard-court matches 7-4 (63.6%) with wins over top-80 opponents.
• Tauson career hard-court win percentage 116-? (approx 60%), Zarazua career hard-court win percentage 194-? (approx 56%).
• H2H: Zarazua won their only meeting 7-6(3) 3-6 7-5 on indoor hard in 2024.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have shown the ability to extend sets, and their H2H was a three-setter, making over 21.5 games likely.

• Tauson last 15 average games per match: 23.3 (170 games / 15 matches).
• Zarazua last 15 average games per match: 18.9 (137 games / 15 matches).
• H2H match had 34 games (7-6, 3-6, 7-5).
• Both players have high first-set win conversion, suggesting competitive sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Zarazua's recent hard-court form and the close H2H suggest she can keep the match within 3.5 games even if she loses.

• Zarazua last 15 hard-court record 7-4 with a 52.4% games won percentage.
• Tauson last 15 hard-court record 4-4 with a 50.3% games won percentage.
• H2H was decided by 2 games (Zarazua won 19-17 in games).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Tauson's serve is a major weapon, and she alone could push the total over 6.5 aces, with Zarazua contributing minimally.

• Tauson last 15 aces per match: 6.0 (90 aces / 15 matches).
• Zarazua last 15 aces per match: 0.5 (7 aces / 15 matches).
• Tauson career aces: 1746 in 430 matches (4.1 per match), Zarazua career aces: 367 in 753 matches (0.5 per match).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Tauson's high double-fault rate, especially under pressure, should push the combined total over 5.5.

• Tauson last 15 double faults per match: 4.8 (72 double faults / 15 matches).
• Zarazua last 15 double faults per match: 1.3 (20 double faults / 15 matches).
• Tauson career double faults: 1395 in 430 matches (3.2 per match), Zarazua career double faults: 1323 in 753 matches (1.8 per match).