United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Ivan Ivanov #5422Ryan Peniston #454United Kingdom1

Sets 6-0 · 3-6 · 6-4Mon 24 Aug 2026, 16:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRyan Peniston · 88 places

Ivan Ivanov

Bulgarian right-hander born 30 October 2008. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; the available official profile showed a July 2026 career-best ranking, while structured data indicates a newer current ranking.

Current ranking: #542
Peak ranking: #542
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Ryan Peniston

United Kingdom

British left-hander, aged 30, with a career-high singles ranking of No. 123 achieved in July 2022. The LTA listed him at world No. 454 on 18 August 2026 and identifies Sam Butler as his coach.

Current ranking: #454
Peak ranking: #123 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 15:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Ryan Peniston is favored over Ivan Ivanov based on superior return game and career experience, with a 58% win probability.

The best betting value is on Peniston to win at 2.30 odds (14.5-point edge) and over 21.5 total games. Peniston's high double fault rate also makes over 5.5 double faults a medium-confidence play.

Context

Peniston last15 overall return points won: 43.4% (497/1144).
- Ivanov last15 overall return points won: 37.6% (354/941).
- Peniston's career return points won is 43%, Ivanov's is 41%.
Ivanov last15 Hard record: 1-2 (33.3% win rate).
- Ivanov last15 Hard return points won: 32.9% vs overall 37.6%.
- Ivanov last15 Hard first serve points won: 57.4% vs overall 64.4%.
Peniston last15 double faults per match: 3.9 (58 total).
- Ivanov last15 double faults per match: 1.7 (26 total).
- Peniston's double fault rate is consistent on hard courts (3.7 per match).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Peniston's superior return game and much larger career sample give him a moderate edge despite Ivanov's recent grass form.
- Peniston career win% 61.2 vs Ivanov 57.4; Peniston 367 career wins vs Ivanov 58
- Peniston last15 overall return points won 43.4% vs Ivanov 37.6%
- Peniston last15 overall total points won 50.4% vs Ivanov 48.8%
- Ivanov last15 Hard record 1-2, Peniston last15 Hard record 6-8 but vs stronger opposition
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRyan PenistonEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average near or above 21.5 total games, supporting an over.
- Ivanov last15 average 20.3 games per match; Peniston last15 average 22.0 games per match
- Peniston last15 Hard average 21.9 games per match
- Ivanov last15 Hard average 26.3 games per match (3 matches)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set game averages for both players are above 9.5, indicating a competitive opening set.
- Ivanov last15 first set average 9.7 games
- Peniston last15 first set average 10.1 games
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Peniston's stronger return game should give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Peniston career first set win conversion 88%
- Ivanov last15 first serve points won 64.4% vs Peniston 63.6%
- Peniston last15 return points won 43.4% vs Ivanov 37.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostRyan PenistonEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Peniston's high double fault rate pushes the combined average above the line.
- Peniston last15 double faults per match 3.9
- Ivanov last15 double faults per match 1.7
- Combined average 5.6 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages are just below the line, but variance and hard court conditions make over 5.5 plausible.
- Ivanov last15 aces per match 3.2, Peniston 1.9
- Combined average 5.1 aces per match
- Ivanov grass aces per match 4.7, but this is hard court
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Ivan Ivanov

8W 7L

6-4 6-2#172Elmer Moller

6-0 6-0#343Ognjen Milic

6-0 7-6(0)#323Carl Emil Overbeck

6-3 7-5—Patrik Munkhammar

6-3 6-0—Sebastian Grundtvig

7-6(5) 6-2—Gustav Theilgaard

6-0 4-6 7-5#227Oliver Crawford

7-6(5) 2-6 7-5#427Massimo Giunta

6-2 6-2#205Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-4#403Lui Maxted

7-6(3) 6-3#428Niels Visker

4-6 6-1 6-1#804Dinko Dinev

6-4 6-3#824Conor Gannon

6-2 6-2#121Zsombor Piros

7-6(8) 6-3#157Stefanos Sakellaridis

Ryan Peniston

6W 9L

6-3 3-0 ret.#248Max Basing

6-2 6-4#817Francisco Rocha

6-1 6-3#763Rodrigo Alujas

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#268Hynek Barton

6-3 6-2#93Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-4 6-4#583Hyeon Chung

6-1 6-1#61Roman Andres Burruchaga

4-6 7-6(9) 6-4#458Moerani Bouzige

6-2 6-7(4) 1-1 ret.#212Elias Ymer

6-3 6-2#90Sho Shimabukuro

7-5 3-6 6-2#304Duje Ajdukovic

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#900Shunsuke Nakagawa

6-0 6-1#556Takuya Kumasaka

7-5 7-6(2)#522Fabrizio Andaloro

6-3 5-7 6-4#382Cedrik-Marcel Stebe

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IIIvan IvanovIvanov

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Ryan PenistonPenistonRP

Ivan Ivanov carries the stronger recent form — Ryan Peniston's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.3%—64.6%

1st Serve Won64.4%+0.8pp63.6%

2nd Serve Won50.4%+2.8pp47.6%

Aces / Match3.2+1.31.9

Double Faults / Match1.72.2 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.6%+5.8pp43.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.1%+4.5pp41.6%

Break Pts Saved57.0%+5.7pp51.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.8%+1.6pp50.4%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

64.3%1st Serve In—64.6%

64.4%1st Serve Won+0.8pp63.6%

50.4%2nd Serve Won+2.8pp47.6%

3.2Aces / Match+1.31.9

1.7Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

37.6%Return Pts Won+5.8pp43.4%

Pressure · 2–0

46.1%Break Pts Converted+4.5pp41.6%

57.0%Break Pts Saved+5.7pp51.3%

Points · 0–1

48.8%Total Pts Won+1.6pp50.4%