GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Mika Brunold #423Switzerland2Ergi Kirkin #608Türkiye0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Sun 23 Aug 2026, 11:30 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions2–529%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMika Brunold · 185 places

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #423
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Ergi Kirkin

Türkiye

The Turkish right-hander reached career-high No. 251 on 6 May 2024. Reliable public sources do not clearly identify a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #608
Peak ranking: #251 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 10:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Brunold is a slight favorite due to better clay form and serve consistency, but Kirkin's first-serve effectiveness and Brunold's fatigue risk make this closer than odds suggest.

Value lies in Kirkin +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games, while Brunold's moneyline and first-set odds are overpriced.

Context

Brunold played three matches in Sion from 18-20 August, with the last one on 20 August.
- His 19 August match against Calvin Hemery went three sets.
- This qualifying match is on 23 August, giving him only two full days of rest.
Kirkin's last-15 first-serve points won: 71.5% (382/534).
- Brunold's last-15 first-serve points won: 66.7% (476/714).
- Kirkin's first-serve percentage is only 50.1%, so he has room to improve.
Brunold's last 15 matches: 7 went to a deciding set.
- Kirkin's last 15 matches: 6 went to a deciding set.
- Both players have similar set-winning percentages (Brunold 55.9%, Kirkin 55.6%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Mika Brunold

1.30fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Brunold's stronger recent clay form and more reliable serve give him a moderate edge, but the odds heavily overprice him relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Brunold's stronger recent clay form and more reliable serve give him a moderate edge, supported by surface-fit and serve/return structural signals.
- Brunold last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Kirkin 8-7 (53.3%)
- Brunold last15 clay record 9-6 (60%) vs Kirkin clay 4-4 (50%)
- Brunold first serve in 68% vs Kirkin 50.1% last15
- Brunold break points saved 58.9% vs Kirkin 51.2% last15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Kirkin's competitive game percentages and longer matches make him likely to stay within 3.5 games even in a loss.
- Brunold last15 games won 51.9% vs Kirkin 51.4%
- Kirkin last15 average 23.1 games per match vs Brunold 21.5
- Kirkin last15 clay games won 52.8% vs Brunold 51.9%
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostErgi Kirkin +3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches with frequent three-setters, making a longer total games line likely.
- Brunold last15 average 21.5 games per match (322 games / 15)
- Kirkin last15 average 23.1 games per match (346 games / 15)
- Brunold last15 7 of 15 matches went to deciding set or tiebreak
- Kirkin last15 6 of 15 matches went to deciding set or tiebreak
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's higher first-serve percentage should help him start stronger, though Kirkin's first-serve effectiveness keeps this a low-confidence lean.
- Brunold first set win conversion 85% career vs Kirkin 88%
- Brunold last15 first serve in 68% vs Kirkin 50.1%
- Brunold last15 first serve points won 66.7% vs Kirkin 71.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
The similar set-winning percentages and frequent deciding sets suggest a three-set match is more likely than not.
- Brunold last15 7 of 15 matches went to deciding set
- Kirkin last15 6 of 15 matches went to deciding set
- Brunold last15 sets won 55.9% vs Kirkin 55.6%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 2 double faults per match, making under 4.5 a reasonable lean.
- Brunold last15 double faults per match 2.0
- Kirkin last15 double faults per match 2.3
- Kirkin clay last15 double faults per match 1.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kirkin's higher ace rate, especially on clay, combined with Brunold's modest ace count supports a moderate total.
- Brunold last15 aces per match 2.1
- Kirkin last15 aces per match 4.1
- Kirkin clay last15 aces per match 4.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Mika Brunold

9W 6L

6-4 7-6(3)#336Dominic Stricker

6-3 3-6 6-3#326Calvin Hemery

7-6(4) 6-1#413Patrick Zahraj

6-3 6-3#328Enrico Dalla Valle

6-1 6-2—Alex De Gabriele

6-4 6-3#252Harold Mayot

6-1 6-0#302Miguel Damas

6-2 3-6 6-3#264Mili Poljicak

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-4#395Georgii Kravchenko

4-6 6-2 6-3#508Ryan Nijboer

6-3 6-2#499Miguel Tobon

6-2 3-6 6-2#245Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-6(10) 7-6(4)#427Massimo Giunta

7-6(2) 6-3#409Laurent Lokoli

5-3 ret.#791Kasra Rahmani

Ergi Kirkin

8W 7L

6-1 6-7(4) 6-2—Tymur Bieldiugin

6-1 6-4—David Eichenseher

3-6 6-4 6-4#250Andrej Nedic

6-3 6-3#837Federico Zeballos

6-2 6-2#1576Boris Arias

6-1 5-7 6-3#374Ilya Ivashka

6-7(3) 6-4 6-2—Oskari Paldanius

6-4 7-6(1)—Kacper Szymkowiak

6-4 7-6(3)#580Paul Inchauspe

3-6 6-1 7-6(9)—William Mirarchi

6-3 6-3#1203Valentin Vanta

6-3 7-5#842Hazem Naow

6-4 6-3#500Aziz Ouakaa

6-4 7-6(5)—Billy Blaydes

6-3 1-6 6-1#682Roger Pascual Ferra

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMika BrunoldBrunold

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Ergi KirkinKirkinEK

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In68.0%+17.9pp50.1%

1st Serve Won66.7%+4.8pp71.5%

2nd Serve Won51.2%+2.5pp53.7%

Aces / Match2.1+2.04.1

Double Faults / Match2.00.3 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won40.3%—40.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted43.3%—43.4%

Break Pts Saved58.9%+7.7pp51.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.9%—51.4%

Serve · 2–3

68.0%1st Serve In+17.9pp50.1%

66.7%1st Serve Won+4.8pp71.5%

51.2%2nd Serve Won+2.5pp53.7%

2.1Aces / Match+2.04.1

2.0Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

40.3%Return Pts Won—40.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

43.3%Break Pts Converted—43.4%

58.9%Break Pts Saved+7.7pp51.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.9%Total Pts Won—51.4%