MexicoCancun - MexicoFinished

Predictions graded

Felipe Meligeni Alves #567Brazil0Moise Kouame #213France2

Sets 1-6 · 4-6Thu 20 Aug 2026, 01:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions1–614%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMoise Kouame · 354 places

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Brazil

Brazilian right-hander; career-high ATP singles ranking No. 117 came in April 2025. His recorded career match volume is heavily concentrated on clay.

Current ranking: #567
Peak ranking: #117 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Moise Kouame

France

French right-hander born in March 2009. The ITF lists a 25-13 professional record in 2026, with his stronger recorded win rate on hard courts than clay.

Current ranking: #213
Peak ranking: #211 · 2026
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 15:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Felipe Meligeni Alves is in dominant form (14-1 last 15) and has a clear edge on hard courts, making him a strong value pick at 2.20 against the struggling Moise Kouame.

Kouame's high double-fault rate and poor recent results make the over 5.5 double faults and Meligeni Alves moneyline the best betting angles.

Context

Last 15 overall record: 14-1 (93.3%) vs Kouame's 7-8 (46.7%).
- Last 15 sets won: 82.9% vs Kouame's 46.2%.
- Last 15 return points won: 42.5% vs Kouame's 39.4%.
- Last 15 break points saved: 77.3% vs Kouame's 65.2%.
Kouame's last 15 hard-court record: 0-1, with a 6-1 6-4 loss to Edward Winter.
- In that match, Kouame won only 29.4% of games and converted 0% of break points.
- Kouame's first serve percentage on hard court in that match was 54.4%.
- Sample size is small (1 match), so confidence is medium.
Kouame last 15 double faults per match: 5.1 (76 total in 15 matches).
- Meligeni Alves last 15 double faults per match: 1.0 (15 total in 15 matches).
- Kouame's first serve percentage is only 59.3% over the last 15, compared to Meligeni Alves's 68.6%.
- Kouame's second serve points won is 50.2%, leaving him vulnerable after missed first serves.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Meligeni Alves has a massive recent-form and surface-fit edge on hard courts, with superior return and break-point resilience.
- Last 15 overall record: 14-1 (93.3%) vs 7-8 (46.7%)
- Last 15 hard-court record: 2-0 (100%) vs 0-1 (0%)
- Last 15 return points won: 42.5% vs 39.4%
- Last 15 break points saved: 77.3% vs 65.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFelipe Meligeni AlvesEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 23 games, and Kouame's competitive sets suggest a longer match.
- Meligeni Alves last 15 average games per match: 23.5
- Kouame last 15 average games per match: 24.2
- Both players have high tiebreak rates in recent matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kouame's competitive game-winning percentage suggests he can keep the match within 3.5 games.
- Kouame last 15 games won percentage: 49.6%
- Meligeni Alves last 15 games won percentage: 58.9%
- Expected game differential is around 3-4 games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMoise Kouame +3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Meligeni Alves's recent hard-court sets have been tight, and Kouame's serve can keep sets close.
- Meligeni Alves last two hard-court matches went to tiebreaks in first set
- Kouame's last hard-court match first set: 6-1 (7 games)
- Meligeni Alves career tiebreak win rate: 59%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Meligeni Alves's dominant recent set-winning rate and strong first-set conversion make him likely to start fast.
- Meligeni Alves first-set win conversion career: 84%
- Kouame first-set win conversion career: 83%
- Meligeni Alves last 15 sets won: 82.9% vs Kouame 46.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFelipe Meligeni AlvesEstimated chance68%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kouame's 5.1 double faults per match alone nearly covers the line, making over 5.5 likely.
- Kouame last 15 double faults per match: 5.1
- Meligeni Alves last 15 double faults per match: 1.0
- Kouame's high double fault rate is a structural weakness
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Meligeni Alves's recent hard-court matches have featured tiebreaks, and both players can hold serve effectively.
- Meligeni Alves last two hard-court matches both had tiebreaks
- Kouame career tiebreak win rate: 58%
- Both players have strong serve metrics on first serve
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 4 aces per match, making over 7.5 total aces likely if the match goes to three sets.
- Meligeni Alves last 15 aces per match: 4.2
- Kouame last 15 aces per match: 4.1
- Combined average aces per match: 8.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Kouame's recent form and hard-court struggles make the favorite price a trap.

Previous match context available

Felipe Meligeni Alves

14W 1L

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#313Dali Blanch 7-6(2) 7-6(1)#207Luka Pavlovic

6-3 7-5#528Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

3-6 6-2 6-3#645Maximo Zeitune

6-4 5-7 6-4#537Joao Eduardo Schiessl

7-6(10) 6-4#900Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas

6-4 6-4#463Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6-4 6-3#528Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

7-5 6-4#820Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-3 6-0#262Matias Soto

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#896Bastian Malla

6-2 6-1#537Joao Eduardo Schiessl

4-6 6-4 7-6(0)#820Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-4 6-3#292Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-1 6-4#1664Brandon Perez

Moise Kouame

7W 8L

6-1 6-4#355Edward Winter

6-4 6-2#47Nuno Borges

6-4 6-4#342Max Hans Rehberg

4-6 6-3 6-4 7-6(9)#29Alejandro Tabilo

6-3 7-5 3-6 2-6 7-6(8)#70Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

7-6(4) 6-2 6-1#80Marin Cilic

6-3 7-6(3)#371Jacopo Vasami

2-6 6-4 6-0#100Benjamin Bonzi

6-2 6-2#115Patrick Kypson

6-3 4-6 6-3#411Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-2 6-3#299Philip Henning

6-1 6-2#359Andrey Chepelev

6-2 6-0#846Francesco Ferrari

7-5 2-6 6-4#436Henry Bernet

6-3 7-5#30Ugo Humbert

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FAFelipe Meligeni AlvesAlves

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Moise KouameKouameMK

Felipe Meligeni Alves carries the stronger recent form — Moise Kouame's route runs through aces / match.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In68.6%+9.3pp59.3%

1st Serve Won69.7%+3.2pp66.5%

2nd Serve Won54.6%+4.4pp50.2%

Aces / Match4.2—4.1

Double Faults / Match1.04.1 fewer5.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.5%+3.1pp39.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.5%+15.9pp34.6%

Break Pts Saved77.3%+12.1pp65.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.0%+4.3pp49.7%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

68.6%1st Serve In+9.3pp59.3%

69.7%1st Serve Won+3.2pp66.5%

54.6%2nd Serve Won+4.4pp50.2%

4.2Aces / Match—4.1

1.0Double Faults / Match4.1 fewer5.1

Return · 1–0

42.5%Return Pts Won+3.1pp39.4%

Pressure · 2–0

50.5%Break Pts Converted+15.9pp34.6%

77.3%Break Pts Saved+12.1pp65.2%

Points · 1–0

54.0%Total Pts Won+4.3pp49.7%