GermanyHamburg - GermanyRET

Predictions graded

Saba Purtseladze #659Georgia0Matej Dodig #257Croatia0

Sets 2-2Fri 14 Aug 2026, 13:15 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions1–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatej Dodig · 402 places

Saba Purtseladze

Georgia

The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high No. 237 on 9 June 2025 and is currently No. 659.

Current ranking: #659
Peak ranking: #237 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Matej Dodig

Croatia

Most of his recorded singles wins have come on clay. He reached career-high No. 199 in March 2026 and qualified for the Hagen main draw with two straight-set wins.

Current ranking: #257
Peak ranking: #199 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Aug 2026, 06:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Matej Dodig is favored due to his higher ranking and stronger clay serve, but the odds are too short for value.

The best bet is Saba Purtseladze +3.5 games, as he is competitive and the handicap offers a 7.6-point edge. Avoid the total games market, as recent trends point to a shorter match.

Context

Dodig first serve points won on clay: 75.6% (411/544) over 13 matches.
- Purtseladze first serve points won on clay: 70.9% (372/525) over 11 matches.
- Dodig's first serve in percentage on clay is 60.8% vs Purtseladze's 56.1%.
Purtseladze double faults per match on clay: 7.2 (79 in 11 matches).
- Dodig double faults per match on clay: 2.0 (26 in 13 matches).
- Purtseladze's second serve points won on clay is only 46.7%, making him vulnerable after a fault.
Dodig beat Rudolf Molleker 6-4 6-3 and Denis Yevseyev 6-3 6-1 in his last two matches.
- Both wins were on clay and lasted 12 games each.
- Purtseladze's last two wins were longer: 6-1 5-7 7-5 and 6-4 7-5.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Matej Dodig

1.03fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 97.1%

0.0ppshort

Dodig's superior ranking, recent clay record, and first-serve effectiveness make him a strong favorite, but the odds are extremely short.

Set 1 Winnernot gradableUncertainty band: Lean

Matej Dodig

1.12fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Dodig's superior serve and set-winning percentage in recent matches make him the likely first-set winner.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.03
The read
Dodig has a stronger recent clay record, higher ranking, and better first-serve effectiveness, giving him a clear edge in this quarter-final.
- Matej Dodig last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), clay record 9-4 (69.2%)
- Saba Purtseladze last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), clay record 7-4 (63.6%)
- Dodig ranking 257 vs Purtseladze 659
- Dodig first serve points won 74.1% overall, 75.6% on clay; Purtseladze 70.6% overall, 70.9% on clay
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatej DodigEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Despite being the underdog, Purtseladze's game-winning percentages are comparable, and the +3.5 handicap covers a likely close match.
- Purtseladze last 15 games won percentage 55.6%, Dodig 53.1%
- Purtseladze clay games won percentage 55.7%, Dodig 54.7%
- Purtseladze has won 9 of last 15 matches, showing competitiveness
BetBugs · Game Handicapnot gradableSaba Purtseladze +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 23 games, and Purtseladze's high double fault count can extend games, supporting an over on total games.
- Purtseladze last 15 average 24.0 games per match, clay 25.6
- Dodig last 15 average 23.7 games per match, clay 23.1
- Both players have high double fault rates: Purtseladze 6.5 per match, Dodig 2.0
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players holding serve well enough to push the total over 9.5 games.
- Purtseladze recent clay matches often have close first sets (e.g., 7-5, 6-4)
- Dodig first set scores include 6-4, 6-3, 7-6
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total Gamesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Dodig's superior serve and set-winning percentage in recent matches make him the likely first-set winner.
- Dodig first set win conversion career 85%, Purtseladze 87%
- Dodig last 15 sets won 62.9%, Purtseladze 55.6%
- Dodig clay first serve points won 75.6% vs Purtseladze 70.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 Winnernot gradableMatej DodigEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Purtseladze's high double fault rate alone nearly covers the line, and Dodig adds a couple, making the over probable.
- Purtseladze averages 6.5 double faults per match overall, 7.2 on clay
- Dodig averages 2.0 double faults per match overall, 2.0 on clay
- Combined average double faults: 8.5 overall, 9.2 on clay
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong servers with combined ace averages exceeding 14.5, making the over likely.
- Purtseladze averages 7.3 aces per match overall, 7.6 on clay
- Dodig averages 7.7 aces per match overall, 7.5 on clay
- Combined average aces per match: 15.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 14.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The over looks tempting given both players' high game averages, but Dodig's recent straight-set wins and Purtseladze's double-fault vulnerability suggest a shorter match.

Previous match context available

Saba Purtseladze

9W 6L

6-1 5-7 7-5#332Max Hans Rehberg

6-4 7-5#636Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski

7-5 7-5#439Denis Yevseyev

6-1 6-4—Richard Antoni

7-6(2) 6-4#299Mert Alkaya

6-3 6-1#550Toufik Sahtali

6-1 6-4#507Radu Albot

7-6(5) 6-3#900Shunsuke Nakagawa

7-6(4) 2-6 6-3#623Tsung-Hao Huang

4-6 6-1 6-0—Edouard Villoslada

7-6(1) 7-6(6)#458Daniel Siniakov

6-2 7-5#831Calvin Mueller

6-3 6-7(5) 6-1#535Michael Bassem Sobhy

6-7(2) 6-4 6-3#556Dimitris Sakellaridis

4-6 6-4 6-2—Ivan Biletic

Matej Dodig

10W 5L

6-4 6-3#488Rudolf Molleker

6-3 6-1#439Denis Yevseyev

4-6 7-5 7-6(4)#198Lorenzo Giustino

7-5 6-3#140Stefano Travaglia

6-4 7-5#522Oleksii Krutykh

7-6(7) 6-2#844Jannik Opitz

6-4 6-2#68Pablo Carreno-Busta

5-7 6-4 6-2#141Hugo Dellien

6-4 3-6 6-3#211Henri Squire

7-6(5) 6-1#237Raul Brancaccio

4-6 7-5 6-4#265Michele Ribecai

6-2 6-4#235Sumit Nagal

6-2 7-6(4)#152Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

3-6 7-6(0) 7-6(5)#228Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-4 6-4#377Carlos Sanchez Jover

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SPSaba PurtseladzePurtseladze

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Matej DodigDodigMD

Matej Dodig carries the stronger recent form — Saba Purtseladze's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In55.6%+6.6pp62.2%

1st Serve Won70.6%+3.5pp74.1%

2nd Serve Won48.4%+4.0pp52.4%

Aces / Match7.3+0.47.7

Double Faults / Match6.54.5 fewer2.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.5%+4.4pp38.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted51.2%+8.8pp42.4%

Break Pts Saved64.5%+5.5pp59.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.9%—51.7%

Serve · 0–5

55.6%1st Serve In+6.6pp62.2%

70.6%1st Serve Won+3.5pp74.1%

48.4%2nd Serve Won+4.0pp52.4%

7.3Aces / Match+0.47.7

6.5Double Faults / Match4.5 fewer2.0

Return · 1–0

42.5%Return Pts Won+4.4pp38.1%

Pressure · 2–0

51.2%Break Pts Converted+8.8pp42.4%

64.5%Break Pts Saved+5.5pp59.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.9%Total Pts Won—51.7%