CanadaATP MontrealFinished

Predictions graded

Learner Tien #19United States2Gael Monfils #347France1

Sets 6-3 · 0-6 · 6-3Thu 6 Aug 2026, 01:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–267%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLearner Tien · 328 places

Learner Tien

United States

Tien is a 20-year-old left-hander who identifies hard courts as his favorite surface. He reached a career-high No. 15 in 2026 and is coached by Michael Chang.

Current ranking: #19
Peak ranking: #15 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Gael Monfils

France

Former world No. 6 Monfils is playing his announced final professional season in 2026. He entered Montreal on a wild card and won his opener on 3 August.

Current ranking: #347
Peak ranking: #6 · 2016
Current age: 39
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 16:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Learner Tien’s superior recent form (10-5 vs. 4-11) and strong hard-court pedigree make him a clear favorite over Gael Monfils.

The best value is Tien to win 2-0 at 1.90, with a 12.4-point edge over the implied probability. Expect a competitive match with over 21.5 total games and over 12.5 aces, but avoid the game handicap due to Tien’s limited hard-court sample.

Context

Monfils last15 overall record: 4-11 (26.7%), sets won 39.5%.
- He has lost to players ranked outside the top 50, including #122 Dane Sweeny and #145 Tomas Barrios Vera.
- His return points won is just 36.9% in this window, limiting his ability to pressure Tien's serve.
Tien last15 hard court: 0-1 record, 40.9% games won, 18.5% return points won (1 match tracked).
- His career hard-court win rate is 79.1%, but the recent sample is too small to confirm that form.
- The lone match was a 7-5, 6-4 loss to Adrian Mannarino (#47), a solid but not elite opponent.
Monfils last15 overall first-serve points won: 73.2%, with 8.1 aces per match.
- On hard courts, his first-serve points won is 73.8% across 11 matches.
- He saved 60.9% of break points in this window, often escaping trouble on serve.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Tien's superior recent form (10-5 vs 4-11) and strong hard-court pedigree give him a clear edge, though Monfils' fresh win and experience keep it from being a lock.
- Tien last15 overall: 10-5 record, 51.1% total points won, 40.3% return points won
- Monfils last15 overall: 4-11 record, 49.0% total points won, 36.9% return points won
- Tien career hard court: 117-31 (79.1%), Monfils career hard court: 259-155 (62.6%)
- Tien ranking #19 vs Monfils #347, Tien is seeded #12 with bye
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLearner TienEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing moderate break point conversion and save rates, expect tight sets that push total games over 21.5 in a Bo3.
- Tien last15 average games per match: 29.5, Monfils last15 average games per match: 27.7
- Monfils last15 hard court: 46.7% games won, Tien last15 hard court (1 match): 40.9% games won
- Both players have break point save rates around 60% in last15, suggesting competitive sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Both players have decent hold rates and break point saving ability, making a 7-5 or 6-4 set likely, pushing set 1 over 9.5 games.
- Monfils last15 hard court: 46.7% games won, Tien last15 hard court: 40.9% games won (1 match)
- Tien last15 break points saved: 58.7%, Monfils last15 break points saved: 60.9%
- Monfils recent win: 6-4, 6-4; Tien's last hard match: 5-7, 4-6
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Tien's higher return points won and elite first-set conversion rate suggest he'll start strong, though Monfils' serve can keep it close.
- Tien last15 first serve points won: 70.1%, Monfils last15 first serve points won: 73.2%
- Tien last15 return points won: 40.3%, Monfils last15 return points won: 36.9%
- Tien career first set win conversion: 92%, Monfils career first set win conversion: 87%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLearner TienEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monfils' high ace rate (8.1 per match) and Tien's solid serving (5.3) should combine for over 12.5 aces in a Bo3 match.
- Monfils last15 aces per match: 8.1, Tien last15 aces per match: 5.3
- Monfils last15 hard court aces per match: 8.3, Tien last15 hard court aces per match: 7.0 (1 match)
- Combined average aces per match: 13.4 in last15 overall
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance62%

Previous match context available

Learner Tien

10W 5L

7-5 6-4#47Adrian Mannarino

6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(4) 6-3#83Marton Fucsovics

6-1 6-4 6-7(4) 6-3#111Dalibor Svrcina

6-7(5) 7-5 7-6(5)#4Felix Auger Aliassime

6-2 6-4#312Max Schoenhaus

6-2 6-2 6-3#8Flavio Cobolli

7-5 4-6 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#84Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-0 2-6 6-0 6-2#136Cristian Garin

3-6 6-3 7-5#44Mariano Navone

6-1 4-6 7-6(5)#11Alexander Bublik

6-4 3-6 6-1#42Alex Michelsen

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#53Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-1 6-4#15Rafael Jodar

4-6 6-3 7-5#11Alexander Bublik

6-2 6-1#104Damir Dzumhur

Gael Monfils

4W 11L

6-4 6-4#67Kamil Majchrzak

6-2 6-3 3-6 2-6 6-0#96Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-4#76Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-4 6-4#11Alexander Bublik

6-7(7) 6-1 6-4#69Tallon Griekspoor

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#4Felix Auger Aliassime

6-3 6-4#175Alexis Galarneau

6-3 6-3#18Valentin Vacherot

6-4 7-6(5)#104Damir Dzumhur

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4 7-5#122Dane Sweeny

5-7 6-3 6-4#61Fabian Marozsan

6-7(3) 6-3 1-0 ret.#89Alexander Shevchenko

6-4 2-6 6-1 3-6 6-4#102Roman Safiullin

6-4 4-6 7-6(3)#145Tomas Barrios Vera

6-3 6-1#116Yibing Wu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LTLearner TienTien

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Gael MonfilsMonfilsGM

Learner Tien carries the stronger recent form — Gael Monfils's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In61.3%+3.1pp58.2%

1st Serve Won70.1%+3.1pp73.2%

2nd Serve Won49.1%+4.6pp44.5%

Aces / Match5.3+2.88.1

Double Faults / Match4.31.2 fewer5.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.3%+3.4pp36.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.1%+15.1pp33.0%

Break Pts Saved58.7%+2.2pp60.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.1%+2.1pp49.0%

Serve · 3–2

61.3%1st Serve In+3.1pp58.2%

70.1%1st Serve Won+3.1pp73.2%

49.1%2nd Serve Won+4.6pp44.5%

5.3Aces / Match+2.88.1

4.3Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer5.5

Return · 1–0

40.3%Return Pts Won+3.4pp36.9%

Pressure · 1–1

48.1%Break Pts Converted+15.1pp33.0%

58.7%Break Pts Saved+2.2pp60.9%

Points · 1–0

51.1%Total Pts Won+2.1pp49.0%