Viktor Durasovic #475Norway11 – 2Andrea Guerrieri #213Italy2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Guerrieri holds a clear serve/return structural edge in recent form and benefits from a significantly lighter workload, making him the favorite on hard court.

• Guerrieri's last15 overall record: 9-6 (60%) vs Durasovic's 8-7 (53.3%)
• Guerrieri's return points won: 44.3% vs Durasovic's 38.8% over last 15 matches
• Guerrieri's first serve in: 65.3% vs Durasovic's 56.8% in last 15
• Durasovic played 2h32m three-setter yesterday; Guerrieri won in 1h19m

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

First sets between these two tend to be tight, with Durasovic's matches averaging over 10 games in the opener.

• Durasovic's last15 first sets average 10.2 games (153 games/15 matches)
• Guerrieri's last15 first sets average 9.5 games (143/15)
• Both players have played multiple tiebreaks recently

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets often remain competitive even if one player leads, and both have shown the ability to push sets beyond 9.5 games.

• Durasovic's last15 second sets average 9.9 games (148/15)
• Guerrieri's last15 second sets average 9.3 games (139/15)
• Both players have similar second-set competitiveness

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Guerrieri's superior first-set conversion rate and more reliable first serve percentage give him an edge to start the match, especially with Durasovic's potential fatigue.

• Guerrieri's first set win conversion career: 91% vs Durasovic's 86%
• Guerrieri's last15 first serve points won: 64.7% vs Durasovic's 67.4% (close)
• Durasovic's last15 first serve in only 56.8%, leading to pressure early

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Durasovic's recent matches frequently go the distance, and with his fighting qualities, a three-setter is likely against a higher-ranked opponent.

• Durasovic's last15: 7 of 15 matches went to three sets (47%)
• Guerrieri's last15: 5 of 15 matches went to three sets (33%)
• Durasovic's deciding set win rate career: 53%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Durasovic's ace count alone often pushes the total near 7.5, and with Guerrieri contributing a couple, over 7.5 is plausible.

• Durasovic averages 5.3 aces per match in last15; Guerrieri 1.9
• Combined average: 7.2 aces per match
• Hard court surface may slightly favor serving

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have relatively high double fault rates, making over 6.5 a reasonable expectation.

• Durasovic averages 3.9 double faults per match in last15
• Guerrieri averages 3.2 double faults per match in last15
• Combined average: 7.1 double faults per match