CanadaATP MontrealFinished

Predictions graded

Hubert Hurkacz #72Poland2Alejandro Tabilo #260

Sets 6-4 · 7-6Wed 5 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlejandro Tabilo · 46 places

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

Reached career-high No. 6 in August 2024 and lists hard as his preferred surface. He entered Montreal using a protected ranking following knee surgery and his 2026 comeback.

Current ranking: #72
Peak ranking: #6 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Alejandro Tabilo

Reached career-high No. 19 in July 2024 and lists clay as his preferred surface. The left-hander has also won ATP titles on hard and grass.

Current ranking: #26
Peak ranking: #19 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 23:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Hurkacz’s massive serve faces a fitness test after a Wimbledon retirement and quick turnaround, while Tabilo brings solid hard-court form from Washington.

Expect a tight match likely to go three sets, with value on over 21.5 total aces and Tabilo +3.5 games, but avoid backing Hurkacz at short odds due to inflated implied probability.

Context

On July 5, Hurkacz retired after 3h36 against Jan-Lennard Struff, requiring multiple medical timeouts and saying the issue was probably muscular.
- He returned on August 4 with a 7-5, 4-6, 6-2 win over Marcos Giron, meaning he played consecutive days after a month-long break.
- The quick turnaround and recent retirement raise the risk that he cannot sustain his usual level over a full match.
In his last four hard-court matches (all in Washington), Tabilo went 3-1, beating Shelton (No. 10) and Griekspoor (No. 69) in three sets.
- His last two matches were three-setters lasting over two hours each, with the semifinal loss to Jodar ending on August 1.
- Tabilo's last-15 hard-court stats show a 75% win rate and 80.6% first-serve points won, but the sample is only four matches.
Hurkacz last-15 overall: 16.5 aces per match, 79.2% first-serve points won, 51.2% second-serve points won.
- Tabilo last-15 overall: 33.6% return points won, but his hard-court return points won is only 29.7% in a small sample.
- Hurkacz's second serve could come under pressure if his movement is compromised, as Tabilo's lefty patterns can open up the court.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Hubert Hurkacz

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Hurkacz's dominant serve and superior recent overall form give him an edge, but the odds overestimate his win probability relative to the model's 58% estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Hurkacz's dominant serve (16.5 aces/match, 79.2% first-serve points won in last 15) and superior recent overall form (60% win rate vs 46.7%) give him the edge on hard court, despite fitness concerns from his Wimbledon retirement and short turnaround.
- Hurkacz last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Tabilo 7-8 (46.7%)
- Hurkacz last15 hard court record 1-0 (100%), Tabilo 3-1 (75%) but small samples
- Hurkacz last15 overall aces per match 16.5 vs Tabilo 7.0, huge serve edge
- Hurkacz last15 overall first serve points won 79.2% vs Tabilo 74.7%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHubert HurkaczEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a tendency for three-set matches (Hurkacz 60%, Tabilo 47% in last 15) and Hurkacz's high total games average, a competitive match likely exceeds 22.5 games.
- Hurkacz last15 overall average games per match 33.2 (498 games/15 matches)
- Tabilo last15 overall average games per match 28.1 (421/15), but hard-court matches tighter
- Both players' recent matches often go to three sets: Hurkacz 9 of last 15, Tabilo 7 of last 15
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tabilo's solid hard-court form and Hurkacz's potential fatigue from consecutive days make a close match likely, with Tabilo covering a +3.5 game handicap.
- Hurkacz last15 overall games won 53.2%, Tabilo 48.0%, difference ~5%
- Tabilo last15 hard court record 3-1, competitive in all matches
- Hurkacz fitness concerns and short turnaround may limit margin
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAlejandro Tabilo +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' high first-set win percentages and recent hard-court matches featuring extended sets, the first set is likely to be close and exceed 9.5 games.
- Hurkacz last15 hard court match had 30 total games, set1 12 games
- Tabilo last15 hard court matches averaged 30 games, with two of four sets going to tiebreak or 7-5
- Both players have strong first-set win conversions, suggesting tight opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tabilo's recent hard-court set2 games have all exceeded 9.5, and Hurkacz's matches tend to be tight, but limited hard-court data reduces confidence.
- Hurkacz last15 overall sets often competitive, with many going beyond 9 games
- Tabilo last15 hard court set2 games: 10, 12, 10, 10 (all over 9.5)
- Small sample size for both on hard court in last 15
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Hurkacz's high career first-set win conversion (83%) and elite serving numbers suggest he can start fast, though Tabilo's own 85% conversion rate and recent hard-court wins keep it close.
- Hurkacz career first-set win conversion 83%
- Tabilo career first-set win conversion 85%, but recent hard-court set1 data unavailable
- Hurkacz last15 overall first serve points won 79.2%, strong start likely
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHubert HurkaczEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high three-set match frequencies in recent form, especially on hard courts, making a deciding set likely.
- Hurkacz last15 overall 9 of 15 matches went to deciding set (60%)
- Tabilo last15 overall 7 of 15 matches went to deciding set (47%)
- Hurkacz last15 hard court match went 3 sets; Tabilo 3 of 4 hard court matches went 3 sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hurkacz's elite ace rate (16.5 per match in last 15) alone nearly covers the line, and Tabilo adds a solid contribution, making over 21.5 aces highly probable.
- Hurkacz last15 overall aces per match 16.5, Tabilo 7.0, combined 23.5
- Hurkacz last15 hard court aces 16 in one match; Tabilo last15 hard court aces per match 9.0
- Hurkacz career aces 6161 in 687 matches (9.0 per match), Tabilo 2983 in 708 (4.2 per match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 21.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages sit right at 5.6, but Hurkacz's hard-court sample is small and Tabilo's 3.3 per match on hard courts suggests a slight lean under 5.5.
- Hurkacz last15 overall double faults per match 3.1, Tabilo 2.5, combined 5.6
- Hurkacz last15 hard court double faults 5 in one match (small sample)
- Tabilo last15 hard court double faults per match 3.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With two big servers and recent hard-court matches often going to tiebreaks, at least one tiebreak in the match is more likely than not.
- Hurkacz last15 overall tiebreak win percentage 52% career, frequent tiebreaks in recent matches
- Tabilo last15 hard court matches featured tiebreaks in 2 of 4 matches
- Both players have strong serves, increasing tiebreak likelihood
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Hurkacz's odds imply a 64.5% win probability, but the model estimates only 58%, making this a poor value bet despite his serve advantage.

Previous match context available

Hubert Hurkacz

9W 6L

7-5 4-6 6-2#81Marcos Giron

3-6 6-7(5) 7-6(2) 7-5 4-2 ret.#41Jan-Lennard Struff

4-6 7-6(5) 7-5 6-2#21Tommy Paul

7-6(8) 6-4 6-4#126Sebastian Ofner

6-4 6-2 7-6(7)#14Casper Ruud

3-6 6-3 7-5#60Daniel Altmaier

6-3 6-2#16Andrey Rublev

3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(4)#83Marton Fucsovics

6-7(5) 7-6(5) 6-4 6-7(1) 6-4#20Frances Tiafoe

6-3 6-3 2-6 6-3#45Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-7(3) 7-6(2) 6-2#57Yannick Hanfmann

6-4 6-4#35Matteo Arnaldi

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#56Roman Andres Burruchaga

4-6 6-3 6-4#40Matteo Berrettini

6-4 6-1#106Emilio Nava

Alejandro Tabilo

7W 8L

6-7(6) 6-4 6-4#15Rafael Jodar 4-6 7-5 6-4#10Ben Shelton 6-3 7-6(6)#46Terence Atmane

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#69Tallon Griekspoor

6-4 6-4#343Tiago Torres

6-4 4-6 6-4#16Andrey Rublev

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#191Lautaro Midon

6-3 7-5 7-5#67Kamil Majchrzak

6-2 6-3#61Fabian Marozsan

6-2 6-4#93Rinky Hijikata

6-3 7-5 6-1#4Felix Auger Aliassime

4-6 6-3 6-4 7-6(9)#212Moise Kouame

6-1 6-3 6-4#67Kamil Majchrzak

7-6(0) 6-3#62Miomir Kecmanovic

4-6 7-5 6-4#149Dusan Lajovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HHHubert HurkaczHurkacz

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Alejandro TabiloTabiloAT

Hubert Hurkacz carries the stronger recent form — Alejandro Tabilo's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In63.0%+1.5pp61.5%

1st Serve Won79.2%+4.5pp74.7%

2nd Serve Won51.2%+2.2pp49.0%

Aces / Match16.5+9.57.0

Double Faults / Match3.10.6 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won34.6%+1.0pp33.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted39.1%+5.8pp33.3%

Break Pts Saved69.9%+8.8pp61.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.7%+2.7pp49.0%

Serve · 4–1

63.0%1st Serve In+1.5pp61.5%

79.2%1st Serve Won+4.5pp74.7%

51.2%2nd Serve Won+2.2pp49.0%

16.5Aces / Match+9.57.0

3.1Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

34.6%Return Pts Won+1.0pp33.6%

Pressure · 2–0

39.1%Break Pts Converted+5.8pp33.3%

69.9%Break Pts Saved+8.8pp61.1%

Points · 1–0

51.7%Total Pts Won+2.7pp49.0%

Hubert Hurkacz #72Poland2Alejandro Tabilo #260

Player Profiles

Hubert Hurkacz

Alejandro Tabilo

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Hubert Hurkacz 2-1

Hubert Hurkacz 2-1

Hubert Hurkacz

Hubert Hurkacz

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Hubert Hurkacz @ 1.55

Hubert Hurkacz

Alejandro Tabilo

Stat Battle