Hubert Hurkacz #71Poland22 – 1Marcos Giron #85United States1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35

The read

Hurkacz's dominant H2H record and superior serve stats give him a clear edge, though his recent retirement raises some fitness concerns.

• H2H: Hurkacz leads 4-0, including a 2025 clay win and a 2024 hard-court win.
• Hurkacz's last 15 overall record: 9-6 (60%), Giron's: 8-7 (53.3%).
• Hurkacz's career hard-court wins: 195 vs Giron's 278, but Hurkacz has a higher career win% (62.1% vs 56.2%).
• Hurkacz's last 15 aces per match: 16.1 vs Giron's 7.3, indicating a significant serve advantage.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Both players' recent match lengths and the competitive H2H history suggest a match likely to exceed 22.5 games.

• Hurkacz's last 15 matches average 24.4 games per match (489 total games / 15 matches).
• Giron's last 15 matches average 22.1 games per match (437 total games / 15 matches).
• H2H matches have averaged 24.5 games, with two of four going to three sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

The H2H matches have been close, and Giron's solid hard-court form suggests he can keep the match within a 3.5-game handicap.

• H2H game margins: Hurkacz +3, +2, +3, +9, with three of four within 3 games.
• Giron's last 15 hard-court record: 3-1, with a 54% game win%.
• Hurkacz's last 15 overall game win%: 53.4%, Giron's: 50.6%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Both players tend to play tight first sets, and H2H history shows all first sets exceeding 9.5 games.

• Hurkacz's last 15 first-set average games: 9.8 (calculated from parsed sets).
• Giron's last 15 first-set average games: 9.5.
• H2H first sets: 9, 10, 11, 9 games, all over 9.5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets have been competitive in H2H, and both players' recent second-set game averages support a close set.

• Hurkacz's last 15 second-set average games: 9.6.
• Giron's last 15 second-set average games: 9.3.
• H2H second sets: 7, 11, 8, 8 games, with three of four over 9.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Hurkacz's strong first-set conversion rate and superior serving numbers make him the favorite to take the opening set.

• Hurkacz's first-set win conversion career: 83%, Giron's: 82%.
• Hurkacz's last 15 first-serve points won: 78.7% vs Giron's 73.8%.
• Hurkacz's last 15 break points saved: 69.3% vs Giron's 63.6%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Hurkacz's high ace rate, combined with Giron's decent ace numbers, makes over 18.5 aces likely in a best-of-3 match.

• Hurkacz's last 15 aces per match: 16.1, Giron's: 7.3, combined average 23.4.
• Hurkacz's career aces: 6145 in 686 matches (8.96 per match), but recent form shows higher ace counts.
• H2H aces: Hurkacz 52, Giron 19 in 4 matches, averaging 17.75 per match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low double fault rates, and the H2H history shows very few double faults, supporting under 5.5.

• Hurkacz's last 15 double faults per match: 2.9, Giron's: 2.2, combined 5.1.
• H2H double faults: Hurkacz 5, Giron 3 in 4 matches, averaging 2.0 per match.
• Both players have similar career double fault rates (Hurkacz 2.74, Giron 1.97 per match).