Mirza Basic #609Bosnia & Herzegovina22 – 0Aleksander BlusPoland0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07

The read

Basic holds a massive experience and form edge across all metrics; Blus has almost no professional record and no hard-court history, making an upset extremely unlikely.

• Basic last 15 overall: 46.7% win rate (7-8), 50% total points won, 39% return points won.
• Blus last 15 overall: 20% win rate (1-4), 35.7% games won, 38.8% total points won (3 matches tracked).
• Basic career win% 57%, ranking 609; Blus career win% 20%, unranked, only 5 career matches.
• Basic hard-court last 15 (small sample): 50% win, 57.8% games won; Blus has never played a hard-court match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Blus's inability to hold serve or break consistently should lead to a one-sided match with few games, likely finishing under 20.5 total games.

• Basic last 15 average games per match: 21.8 total; Blus last 5 matches: 19.6 total games per match.
• Blus won only 35.7% of games in last 5; Basic won 49.5% in last 15.
• Basic's hard-court last 15 (2 matches): 22.5 total games per match, but against stronger opponents.
• Blus's last 5 matches all on clay, but his poor return (34.3% points won) suggests quick sets on hard.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Basic should win comfortably by at least 6 games given the vast gap in experience and surface-specific ability.

• Basic last 15 average games won per match: 10.8; Blus last 5 average games won: 7.0.
• Blus's games won% last 15: 35.7%; Basic's games won%: 49.5%.
• Basic's hard-court last 15 (2 matches): won 13.0 games per match on average.
• Blus has never played a hard-court professional match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Blus's weak serve and poor return should allow Basic to dominate early, likely resulting in a set with 9 or fewer games.

• Blus's last 5 matches: average 6.0 games won per match, with set scores like 6-2, 6-1, 6-0.
• Basic's hard-court last 15 (2 matches): average 11.25 games per set, but against better opponents.
• Blus's second-serve points won: 33.7%, making holds difficult.
• Basic's break-point conversion last 15: 38.5%, but Blus's break-point save rate: 54.3%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Similar to set 1, Blus's serve vulnerabilities should lead to a short second set, likely under 9.5 games.

• Blus's last 5 matches: second-set scores include 6-4, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2.
• Basic's hard-court last 15 (2 matches): second-set average 9.5 games.
• Blus's first-serve points won: 53.4%, second-serve: 33.7%, leading to quick breaks.
• Basic's return points won: 39%, should pressure Blus's serve consistently.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15

The read

Basic's strong serve and return advantage, combined with Blus's weak second serve, make it highly probable Basic takes the opening set.

• Basic career first-set win conversion: 87%; Blus career first-set win conversion: 100% (1/1, negligible sample).
• Basic last 15 first-serve points won: 67%; Blus last 15 first-serve points won: 53.4%.
• Blus last 15 first-serve in: 46.8%, leading to frequent second serves where he wins only 33.7%.
• Basic's return points won last 15: 39%; Blus's return points won: 34.3%.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15

The read

Basic's consistency and Blus's inability to adjust mid-match should see Basic close out the second set comfortably.

• Basic last 15 second-serve points won: 50.7%; Blus last 15 second-serve points won: 33.7%.
• Blus has lost the second set in 4 of his last 5 matches, often by wide margins.
• Basic's hard-court last 15 (2 matches): won both second sets.
• Basic's career deciding-set win%: 57%, but likely won't need it.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22

The read

Blus has been uncompetitive in most sets, while Basic's superior serve and return numbers should allow him to close in straight sets without needing a decider.

• Basic last 15 sets won: 47.1%; Blus last 15 sets won: 18.2%.
• Blus has won only 2 of 11 sets in his last 5 matches, both against a player with no ranking.
• Basic's first-set win conversion career: 87%; Blus's first-set win conversion career: 100% (1/1, tiny sample).
• Basic's hard-court last 15 (2 matches): 60% sets won, 57.8% games won.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Blus's lack of competitiveness at this level makes a straight-sets win for Basic the most likely outcome, keeping total sets under 2.5.

• Basic last 15 sets won: 47.1%; Blus last 15 sets won: 18.2%.
• Blus has won only 2 sets in his last 5 matches, both in a single match against an unranked player.
• Basic's hard-court last 15 (2 matches): won both in straight sets.
• Blus's career deciding-set win%: 100% (1/1), but extremely small sample.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The mismatch in quality should prevent any set from reaching a tiebreak, as Basic is expected to break serve multiple times per set.

• Basic career tiebreak win%: 57%; Blus has never played a tiebreak in recorded matches.
• Basic last 15 sets: only 2 tiebreaks in 34 sets (5.9%).
• Blus's poor serve and return numbers make close sets unlikely.
• Basic's hard-court last 15 (2 matches): no tiebreaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Basic's serve should produce enough aces on hard court to push the total over 5.5, especially against a weak returner like Blus.

• Basic last 15 aces per match: 3.0 overall, 4.5 on hard (2 matches).
• Blus last 15 aces per match: 1.0 (3 matches tracked), all on clay.
• Basic career aces: 3292 in 941 matches (3.5 per match).
• Hard courts typically yield more aces than clay.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have shown vulnerability to double faults, especially on hard courts, making over 4.5 likely.

• Basic last 15 double faults per match: 1.7 overall, 4.0 on hard (2 matches).
• Blus last 15 double faults per match: 2.7 (3 matches tracked).
• Blus's first-serve percentage: 46.8%, leading to many second serves and double-fault risk.
• Combined average double faults from both players' recent hard-court data: ~6.7.