PolandGrodzisk Mazowiecki - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Kristjan Tamm #880Estonia0Amit Vales #672Israel2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Sun 2 Aug 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAmit Vales · 208 places

Kristjan Tamm

Estonia

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 625 in December 2020. His three listed ITF singles titles were won on hard courts.

Current ranking: #880
Peak ranking: #625 · 2020
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Amit Vales

Israel

Current No. 672 is also his career high, reached in July 2026. Most of his recorded 2026 matches have been played on hard courts.

Current ranking: #672
Peak ranking: #672 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Aug 2026, 00:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Amit Vales holds a form and return-game advantage over Kristjan Tamm, but a same-week clay-to-hard surface switch adds risk.

Expect a close qualifying match likely to go over 21.5 games and possibly three sets, with Vales favored but not a lock for a straight-sets win.

Context

Vales lost in straight sets on clay in Bonn on 26 July, his most recent match.
- The Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger is played on outdoor hard courts.
- Vales has only 5 hard-court matches in his last 15, going 3-2, but his return points won drops from 45.5% on hard to 40% on clay in that sample.
Tamm's last-15 overall record is 6-9 (40%), but on hard courts it is 4-6 (40%).
- He has won 46.2% of games on hard in that window, compared to 45.8% overall.
- His last-5 matches include two straight-set losses and a three-set win, showing inconsistency.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Amit Vales

1.22fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Vales has a stronger recent overall form and a significant edge in return points won, which is critical on hard courts.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Vales has a stronger recent overall form and a significant edge in return points won, which is critical on hard courts. Tamm's last15 hard-court record is worse, and Vales's surface transition risk is mitigated by his solid hard-court stats.
- Amit Vales last15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Kristjan Tamm 6-9 (40%)
- Vales return points won 42.8% last15 vs Tamm 34.2%
- Vales hard-court last15 record 3-2 (60%), Tamm 4-6 (40%)
- Vales career hard-court win% 88-82 (51.8%), Tamm 129-107 (54.7%) but recent form favors Vales
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAmit ValesEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a high frequency of three-set matches and competitive games in recent hard-court contests, making over 21.5 games likely in a Bo3 format.
- Tamm last15 average games per match 23.7, Vales 22.7
- Both players have 53%+ three-set matches in last15 (Tamm 7/15, Vales 8/15)
- Hard-court last15: Tamm avg 22.5 games, Vales avg 26.0 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first-set data shows both players frequently engage in tight opening sets, with averages near or above 9.5 games, especially on hard courts.
- Tamm last15 first-set avg 9.8 games, Vales 9.5 games
- Hard-court last15: Tamm first-set avg 9.7, Vales 10.2
- Both players have 50%+ first sets with 10+ games in last15
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been competitive in recent matches, with averages close to 9.5 games, though slightly lower than first sets, warranting a low-confidence over pick.
- Tamm last15 second-set avg 9.3 games, Vales 9.1 games
- Hard-court last15: Tamm second-set avg 9.4, Vales 9.8
- Both players have 40%+ second sets with 10+ games in last15
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vales's superior return game and positive game margins on hard courts give him a slight edge to cover -1.5 games, but the low confidence reflects the tight expected match.
- Vales last15 average game margin +0.3, Tamm -0.7
- Hard-court last15: Vales avg margin +1.6, Tamm -0.6
- Vales return points won edge 42.8% vs 34.2%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAmit Vales -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High frequency of three-set matches in recent form for both players, especially Vales on hard courts, supports a likely deciding set.
- Tamm last15 three-set match rate 7/15 (46.7%), Vales 8/15 (53.3%)
- Hard-court last15: Tamm 4/10 (40%), Vales 3/5 (60%) three-set matches
- Both players have deciding set win rates near 50%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Vales's superior return game and better first-set performance in recent matches give him a slight edge to take the opening set, though confidence is low due to the qualifying match uncertainty.
- Vales last15 first-set win rate 8/15 (53.3%), Tamm 6/15 (40%)
- Vales hard-court last15 first-set win rate 3/5 (60%), Tamm 4/10 (40%)
- Vales return points won 42.8% last15 vs Tamm 34.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAmit ValesEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tamm's ace count alone often pushes totals near 7.5, and with Vales contributing a few, over 7.5 is plausible, though Vales's low ace rate keeps confidence low.
- Tamm last15 aces per match 5.6, Vales 1.9, combined 7.5
- Hard-court last15: Tamm 4.9, Vales 1.8, combined 6.7
- Tamm's ace rate is higher on indoor hard (7.3) but surface is outdoor hard
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages are near 6.5, with Vales's high rate providing a buffer, though Tamm's lower hard-court rate introduces uncertainty.
- Tamm last15 double faults per match 3.0, Vales 3.7, combined 6.7
- Hard-court last15: Tamm 1.9, Vales 3.6, combined 5.5
- Vales double fault rate is consistently high across surfaces
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tamm's high tiebreak frequency and competitive sets suggest a tiebreak is possible, but Vales's lower rate and the match's unpredictability keep it a coin flip.
- Tamm last15 tiebreak rate 6/15 (40%), Vales 4/15 (26.7%)
- Hard-court last15: Tamm 4/10 (40%), Vales 2/5 (40%)
- Both players have career tiebreak win% around 52-53%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Tamm's recent form and return stats are significantly weaker than Vales', making the long odds a trap.

Kristjan Tamm

6W 9L

6-3 6-1—Leyton Rivera

7-6(5) 6-1#548Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-1#234Braden Shick

4-6 7-6(3) 6-2—Arthur Laborde

3-6 6-4 6-2#748Pawit Sornlaksup

7-6(4) 6-3#792Taisei Ichikawa

7-6(5) 4-6 6-2—Kuan-Shou Chen

6-1 6-2#328Hayato Matsuoka

4-6 6-4 6-2#328Hayato Matsuoka

7-6(2) ret.#432Luca Castelnuovo

7-6(3) 6-1—Yuquan Jin

6-1 6-7(3) 7-6(2)—Patrik Munkhammar

6-4 3-6 6-4#785Lucas Gerch

6-4 6-7(2) 7-5#793Alexis Gautier

7-5 6-2#558Guillaume Dalmasso

Amit Vales

8W 7L

6-2 7-5#412Johan Nikles

6-1 6-2#423Norbert Gombos

6-3 3-6 6-4—Andrin Casanova

6-4 6-4#499Ryan Nijboer

6-3 6-2#217Henry Searle

6-2 6-1#874Marcus Walters

6-4 6-2#866Michael Zhu

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3—William Rejchtman Vinciguerra

6-3 6-2#569Svyatoslav Gulin

1-6 7-5 6-3#830John Sperle

4-6 6-3 6-4—Jean Baptiste Badon

4-6 6-4 6-3#543Kaylan Bigun

7-6(4) 3-6 6-2#529Spencer Johnson

6-1 6-7(7) 6-0—Vit Kalina

6-1 6-3—Marko Mesarovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KTKristjan TammTamm

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Amit ValesValesAV

Kristjan Tamm carries the stronger recent form — Amit Vales's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In59.1%+1.2pp57.9%

1st Serve Won70.3%+6.7pp63.6%

2nd Serve Won49.2%+1.5pp50.7%

Aces / Match5.6+3.71.9

Double Faults / Match3.00.7 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.2%+8.6pp42.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted32.9%+7.8pp40.7%

Break Pts Saved53.9%+4.4pp49.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.0%+2.2pp50.2%

Serve · 4–1

59.1%1st Serve In+1.2pp57.9%

70.3%1st Serve Won+6.7pp63.6%

49.2%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp50.7%

5.6Aces / Match+3.71.9

3.0Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

34.2%Return Pts Won+8.6pp42.8%

Pressure · 1–1

32.9%Break Pts Converted+7.8pp40.7%

53.9%Break Pts Saved+4.4pp49.5%

Points · 0–1

48.0%Total Pts Won+2.2pp50.2%

Kristjan Tamm #880Estonia0Amit Vales #672Israel2

Player Profiles

Kristjan Tamm

Amit Vales

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Amit Vales 2-1

Amit Vales

Amit Vales

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Kristjan Tamm @ 4.00

Amit Vales 2-0 @ 1.55

Kristjan Tamm

Amit Vales

Stat Battle