PolandGrodzisk Mazowiecki - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Alexander Donski #538Canada2Kenny de Schepper #850France1

Sets 2-6 · 6-4 · 7-6Sun 2 Aug 2026, 13:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–260%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlexander Donski · 312 places

Alexander Donski

Canada

Donski turned 28 on August 1, 2026. His singles career high is No. 525, and ATP lists hard as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #538
Peak ranking: #525 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Kenny de Schepper

France

De Schepper reached a singles career high of No. 62 in April 2014. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface and serve as his favourite shot.

Current ranking: #850
Peak ranking: #62 · 2014
Current age: 39
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 203 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Aug 2026, 01:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Alexander Donski's strong hard-court form (5-1 in last 15) and superior serve metrics give him a clear edge over Kenny de Schepper, who is transitioning from clay and has no recent hard-court data.

Donski is likely to win in straight sets, with the best betting value on under 9.5 games in the first set. Avoid De Schepper due to poor form and surface disadvantage.

Context

De Schepper's last match was a 6-3, 6-2 clay-court win over Elijah Sanogo on July 29.
- His last 15 matches include 8 on clay and 7 on indoor hard, with zero on outdoor hard courts.
- Donski has a 5-1 record on hard courts in his last 15 matches, showing strong surface comfort.
Donski completed six singles matches and three doubles matches between July 17 and July 29.
- His latest appearance was in San Marino doubles on July 29, leaving only three days of rest and travel.
- His last 15 matches average 106 minutes, with hard-court matches averaging 138 minutes, indicating physically demanding contests.
Donski's last 15 hard-court stats: 14.0 aces per match, 79.3% first-serve points won.
- De Schepper's last 15 indoor hard stats: 7.3 aces per match, 72.2% first-serve points won.
- Donski's break-point saved rate on hard courts is 73.5%, while De Schepper's is 60.5% on indoor hard.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alexander Donski

1.33fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Donski's dominant hard-court form (5-1 last15) and superior serve metrics give him a clear edge over De Schepper, who has no recent hard-court matches.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alexander Donski

1.40fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Donski's strong set-winning rate (61.1%) and hard-court proficiency, combined with De Schepper's poor recent form and surface transition, make Donski likely to take the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Donski's superior recent form (66.7% win rate vs 26.7%), dominant hard-court record in last15 (5-1), and stronger serve metrics give him a clear edge. De Schepper's four-day clay-to-hard transition and lack of recent hard-court data further tilt the match toward Donski.
- Donski last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), De Schepper 4-11 (26.7%)
- Donski last15 hard-court record 5-1 (83.3%), De Schepper 0-0 on hard in last15 (all matches clay/I.hard)
- Donski career hard-court win% 174-? (surface wins 174 vs De Schepper 119), Donski ranking 538 vs De Schepper 850
- Donski last15 aces per match 9.7, De Schepper 4.4; Donski first-serve points won 76.2% vs De Schepper 68.6%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlexander DonskiEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Donski's longer hard-court matches, De Schepper's recent clay matches have been short, and his serve/return stats on hard are unknown. Donski's strong hold game and De Schepper's likely struggles on hard suggest a relatively quick match under 21.5 games.
- Donski last15 average games per match 24.1 (361/15), De Schepper 22.7 (341/15)
- Donski last15 hard-court matches averaged 29.8 games (179/6), but De Schepper's clay matches averaged 20.1 (161/8)
- De Schepper last15 clay matches: 5 of 8 under 21.5 games; Donski last15 clay matches: 5 of 9 under 21.5
- Donski last15 break-point saved 67.8%, De Schepper 53.8%
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players' recent first sets average around 9.5 games, but Donski's superior serve and break-point conversion on hard court should lead to a relatively quick first set, likely under 9.5 games.
- Donski last15 first-set scores: 6-4, 7-5, 6-4, 7-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2, 4-6, 2-6, 4-6, 7-6, 7-5, 2-6 (avg 9.5 games)
- De Schepper last15 first-set scores: 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 6-1, 6-3, 7-6, 6-2, 6-3, 7-5, 6-4, 6-4, 7-6, 2-6, 1-6 (avg 9.3 games)
- Donski last15 break-point conversion 46.9%, De Schepper 40.4%
- De Schepper last15 first-serve points won 68.6%, Donski 76.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Donski's positive game margin on hard courts and De Schepper's negative overall margin, combined with the surface transition, point to Donski covering a -3.5 game handicap.
- Donski last15 average game margin per match: +2.0 (191 won, 170 lost)
- Donski last15 hard-court average game margin: +2.7 (95 won, 84 lost in 6 matches)
- De Schepper last15 average game margin: -1.3 (160 won, 181 lost)
- Donski last15 break-point saved 67.8%, De Schepper 53.8%
BetBugs · Game Handicapnot gradableAlexander Donski -3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Donski's strong set-winning rate (61.1%) and hard-court proficiency, combined with De Schepper's poor recent form and surface transition, make Donski likely to take the opening set.
- Donski last15 first-set win rate not directly given, but career first-set win conversion 86%
- De Schepper last15 sets won only 34.3%, Donski 61.1%
- Donski last15 hard-court record 5-1, De Schepper no hard-court matches in window
- Donski last15 break-point conversion 46.9%, De Schepper 40.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlexander DonskiEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Donski's dominance on hard courts and De Schepper's struggles to win sets in recent losses suggest a straight-set victory is likely. Donski's 2-0 win rate in his last15 hard-court wins supports this outcome.
- Donski last15 straight-set win rate: 7 of 10 wins were 2-0 (70%)
- De Schepper last15 straight-set loss rate: 8 of 11 losses were 0-2 (72.7%)
- Donski last15 hard-court matches: 4 of 5 wins were 2-0 (80%)
- De Schepper last15 clay matches: 6 of 6 losses were 0-2 (100%)
BetBugs · Set BettinglostAlexander Donski 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Donski's ace rate spikes on hard courts (14.0 per match), and even with De Schepper's lower ace count, the combined average in Donski's hard-court matches exceeds 12.5. The surface switch to hard should favor big serving.
- Donski last15 aces per match 9.7, De Schepper 4.4 (combined 14.1)
- Donski last15 hard-court aces per match 14.0, De Schepper I.hard 7.3 (combined 21.3 on fast surfaces)
- Donski career aces 2060 in 458 matches (4.5 per match), De Schepper 5713 in 1049 (5.4 per match)
- Donski last15 first-serve points won 76.2%, De Schepper 68.6%
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Donski's high double-fault rate on hard courts (10.3 per match) pushes the combined total over 8.5, though De Schepper's lower rate adds uncertainty. The surface switch may exacerbate Donski's serving inconsistency.
- Donski last15 double faults per match 6.5, De Schepper 3.4 (combined 9.9)
- Donski last15 hard-court double faults per match 10.3, De Schepper I.hard 2.7 (combined 13.0)
- Donski last15 first-serve percentage 52.1%, De Schepper 66.7%
- Donski career double faults 1325 in 458 matches (2.9 per match), De Schepper 2774 in 1049 (2.6 per match)
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

De Schepper's poor recent form and lack of hard-court data make his odds unappealing despite the high payout.

Alexander Donski

10W 5L

6-4 6-3#339Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 6-3#274Juan Pablo Varillas

6-4 6-1#348Marko Topo

7-6(4) 4-6 6-3#313Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-5 6-2—Jiri Cizek

6-2 6-4—Erik Grevelius

6-3 6-3#339Max Hans Rehberg

6-3 6-4#900Filip Pieczonka

6-2 6-4#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-2 3-6 7-6(6)#295Philip Henning

4-6 6-4 6-3#716Khololwam Montsi

4-6 7-6(6) 6-2#644Tuncay Duran

7-6(2) 6-7(4) 7-5#391Edward Winter

7-5 7-5#288Akira Santillan

2-6 6-3 6-4#759Naoya Honda

Kenny de Schepper

4W 11L

7-5 6-3—Nicolas Ifi

6-3 6-2—Elijah Sanogo

5-7 6-4 6-4#441Denis Yevseyev

7-6(3) 6-4#618Kai Wehnelt

6-1 6-2#177Max Alcala Gurri

6-3 6-4#319Marvin Moeller

7-6(7) 6-0—Aaron Funk

6-2 6-1—Thomas Gerbaud

6-3 6-3#284Florian Broska

7-5 7-5#446Tom Paris

6-4 6-2—Mathys Picard

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#833Patrick Brady

7-6(5) 6-7(2) 6-3#896David Poljak

2-6 6-4 6-4#826Liam Gavrielides

1-6 6-2 6-4#760Pierre Yves Bailly

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ADAlexander DonskiDonski

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Kenny de SchepperSchepperKS

Alexander Donski carries the stronger recent form — Kenny de Schepper's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In52.1%+14.6pp66.7%

1st Serve Won76.2%+7.6pp68.6%

2nd Serve Won50.2%+5.8pp44.4%

Aces / Match9.7+5.34.4

Double Faults / Match6.53.1 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.0%+1.6pp37.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.9%+6.5pp40.4%

Break Pts Saved67.8%+14.0pp53.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.5%+1.2pp49.3%

Serve · 3–2

52.1%1st Serve In+14.6pp66.7%

76.2%1st Serve Won+7.6pp68.6%

50.2%2nd Serve Won+5.8pp44.4%

9.7Aces / Match+5.34.4

6.5Double Faults / Match3.1 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

36.0%Return Pts Won+1.6pp37.6%

Pressure · 2–0

46.9%Break Pts Converted+6.5pp40.4%

67.8%Break Pts Saved+14.0pp53.8%

Points · 1–0

50.5%Total Pts Won+1.2pp49.3%

Alexander Donski #538Canada2Kenny de Schepper #850France1

Player Profiles

Alexander Donski

Kenny de Schepper

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 9.5

Alexander Donski

Alexander Donski

Alexander Donski 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 1 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Kenny De Schepper @ 3.20

Kenny De Schepper 2-0 @ 5.50

Alexander Donski

Kenny de Schepper

Stat Battle