CanadaWTA TorontoFinished

Predictions graded

Alina Korneeva #89Russia2Mary Stoiana #124United States1

Sets 2-6 · 6-4 · 6-3Sat 1 Aug 2026, 17:50 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–633%

Edges4–267%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlina Korneeva · 35 places

Alina Korneeva

Russia

Korneeva reached career-high No. 75 in July 2026 and won the 2026 Oeiras WTA 125 title. Her earlier wrist and adductor injuries were reported healed in May 2026.

Current ranking: #89
Peak ranking: #75 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Mary Stoiana

United States

Stoiana is a former Texas A&M standout who was the 2024 ITA National Player of the Year and NCAA Tournament MVP. She reached career-high No. 124 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #124
Peak ranking: #124 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Aug 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Alina Korneeva's freshness and superior hard-court form give her a clear edge over Mary Stoiana, who is fatigued after a compressed schedule.

Back Korneeva to win at 2.38 odds (62% model probability) and consider under 26.5 total games, as a straight-set victory is likely.

Context

Stoiana played three singles and three doubles matches in Evansville from July 22-25, then a three-set loss to Peyton Stearns in Memphis on July 29.
- Toronto qualifying on August 1 leaves only two full recovery days after seven matches in eight days.
- Her last 15 matches average 112.3 minutes, indicating physically demanding contests.
Korneeva's last match was a straight-set loss to Maria Sakkari in the Athens semifinals on July 18.
- She won her previous three Athens matches in straight sets, showing efficient form.
- A 14-day gap before Toronto qualifying ensures full physical recovery.
Korneeva last 15 on hard: 4-2 record, 69.2% sets won, 58.1% games won.
- Stoiana last 15 on hard: 2-2 record, 60% sets won, 53.4% games won (only 4 matches tracked).
- Korneeva's return points won on hard: 49% vs Stoiana's 46.4%.
- Korneeva's break-point conversion on hard: 50% vs Stoiana's 39.5%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.38
The read
Korneeva's superior return game and break point conversion, combined with Stoiana's compressed schedule and travel, give her a clear edge in this hard-court qualifier.
- Korneeva's last15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%), Stoiana: 9-6 (60%).
- On hard courts last15: Korneeva 4-2 (66.7%), Stoiana 2-2 (50%) with only 4 matches tracked.
- Korneeva's return points won last15 overall: 48.7% vs Stoiana's 44.7%.
- Korneeva's break point conversion last15 overall: 56.6% vs Stoiana's 50.4%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlina KorneevaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Korneeva's efficient hard-court wins and Stoiana's fatigue risk point to a relatively quick match, likely under 21.5 games.
- Korneeva's last15 hard court matches averaged 19.7 total games per match.
- Stoiana's last15 hard court matches averaged 22 total games, but 3 of 4 were straight sets.
- Korneeva's last15 overall average match duration: 97.7 minutes, Stoiana: 112.3 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Korneeva's strong starts and Stoiana's potential fatigue could lead to a quick first set, but the sample size is small.
- Korneeva's last15 hard court set1 average games: 8.5.
- Stoiana's last15 hard court set1 average games: 9.5.
- Korneeva's last15 overall set1 games won %: 58.1%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Korneeva's high first-set win conversion and recent hard-court form suggest she will start strongly against a potentially fatigued Stoiana.
- Korneeva's first set win conversion career: 92%, Stoiana: 85%.
- Korneeva's last15 hard court record: 4-2, with straight-set wins in 3 of 4 victories.
- Stoiana's last15 hard court record: 2-2, losing first set in both losses.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlina KorneevaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Both players have a recent pattern of straight-set outcomes on hard courts, and Korneeva's superior deciding-set record supports a two-set finish.
- Korneeva's last15 hard court matches: 4 of 6 ended in straight sets.
- Stoiana's last15 hard court matches: 3 of 4 ended in straight sets.
- Korneeva's career deciding set win rate: 67%, Stoiana: 50%.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Both players have low tiebreak frequencies in recent matches, making a tiebreak-free match likely.
- Korneeva's last15 matches: tiebreaks in 3 of 15 (20%).
- Stoiana's last15 matches: tiebreaks in 3 of 15 (20%).
- Combined tiebreak occurrence: 6 in 30 matches (20%).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server; their combined ace counts consistently fall below 5.5 per match.
- Korneeva's last15 aces per match: 2.6, Stoiana: 2.2.
- Korneeva's last15 hard court aces per match: 2.8, Stoiana: 2.8.
- Combined average aces per match: 4.8, well under 5.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, and their combined average exceeds the 5.5 line.
- Korneeva's last15 double faults per match: 3.5, Stoiana: 2.8.
- Korneeva's last15 hard court double faults per match: 3.2, Stoiana: 2.8.
- Combined average double faults per match: 6.3, above 5.5.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Alina Korneeva

10W 5L

6-1 7-5#33Maria Sakkari

7-5 6-3#64Tereza Valentova

6-2 6-2#31Ann Li

6-2 6-1#235Aoi Ito

6-3 0-6 6-2#66Kimberly Birrell

6-2 6-0#274Fiona Crawley

6-2 6-7(5) 7-5#155Andrea Lazaro Garcia

2-6 7-6(2) 6-3#186Alexandra Shubladze

7-6(4) 5-7 6-4#187Martyna Kubka

6-2 6-4#249Fangran Tian

6-4 7-5#216Celine Naef

7-6(2) 6-4#20Anna Kalinskaya

6-3 6-3#71Elisabetta Cocciaretto

6-3 6-2#148Julia Riera

4-6 6-4 6-2#160Jazmin Ortenzi

Mary Stoiana

9W 6L

6-7(5) 6-0 6-4#58Peyton Stearns

6-4 2-6 6-2#171Yeon Woo Ku

6-3 6-4#308Julieta Pareja

6-1 6-1#312Anna Sinclair Rogers

3-6 6-2 7-5#111Mananchaya Sawangkaew

3-6 6-2 6-3#205Iryna Shymanovich

6-2 6-2#271Katrina Scott

2-6 6-4 7-5#111Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-3 6-4#172Kayla Cross

1-6 6-3 6-4#216Celine Naef

6-2 6-3#115Lulu Sun

7-5 6-1#181Tatiana Prozorova

7-5 6-4#127Kayla Day

6-4 3-6 6-0#166Rebeka Masarova

7-5 2-6 7-6(5)#216Celine Naef

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAlina KorneevaKorneeva

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Mary StoianaStoianaMS

Alina Korneeva carries the stronger recent form — Mary Stoiana's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In65.8%—65.7%

1st Serve Won62.1%—62.6%

2nd Serve Won46.1%+3.5pp49.6%

Aces / Match2.6+0.42.2

Double Faults / Match3.50.7 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won48.7%+4.0pp44.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted56.6%+6.2pp50.4%

Break Pts Saved46.7%+11.9pp58.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.6%+0.9pp51.7%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

65.8%1st Serve In—65.7%

62.1%1st Serve Won—62.6%

46.1%2nd Serve Won+3.5pp49.6%

2.6Aces / Match+0.42.2

3.5Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

48.7%Return Pts Won+4.0pp44.7%

Pressure · 1–1

56.6%Break Pts Converted+6.2pp50.4%

46.7%Break Pts Saved+11.9pp58.6%

Points · 1–0

52.6%Total Pts Won+0.9pp51.7%

Alina Korneeva #89Russia2Mary Stoiana #124United States1

Player Profiles

Alina Korneeva

Mary Stoiana

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alina Korneeva

Alina Korneeva

Under 26.5

Under 2.5

Alina Korneeva 2-1

No

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Alina Korneeva -3.5 @ 1.60

Mary Stoiana 2-0 @ 2.50

Alina Korneeva

Mary Stoiana

Stat Battle