CzechiaLiberec - Czech RepublicFinished

Predictions graded

Martin Krumich #261Czechia0Sumit Nagal #246India2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Fri 31 Jul 2026, 11:05 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSumit Nagal · 15 places

Martin Krumich

Czechia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 260 in 2026. Most of his recorded professional matches have been played on clay.

Current ranking: #261
Peak ranking: #260
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Sumit Nagal

India

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 68 on 15 July 2024. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #246
Peak ranking: #68 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Jul 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Sumit Nagal's superior second-serve and break-point saving stats on clay give him a structural edge over Martin Krumich in this Liberec Challenger quarterfinal.

Despite Krumich's home advantage and recent upset win, Nagal's efficiency and clay-court metrics make him a value bet at around 2.00 odds. The match is expected to be tight, with a strong chance of exceeding 21.5 total games.

Context

Nagal last 15 on clay: 56.9% second-serve points won (178/313).
- Krumich last 15 on clay: 45.0% second-serve points won (232/516).
- Nagal's higher second-serve win rate gives him more security in longer rallies, reducing cheap points for Krumich.
Nagal last 15 on clay: 58.0% break points saved (58/100).
- Krumich last 15 on clay: 45.1% break points saved (46/102).
- In a match likely to feature many break chances, Nagal's superior clutch serving could be decisive.
Krumich last 15 on clay: 70.6% first-serve points won (438/620), but only 54.6% first serves in (620/1136).
- Nagal last 15 on clay: 63.7% first-serve points won (473/743), with a much higher 70.4% first-serve percentage.
- Krumich's low first-serve percentage means he often starts points on his weaker second serve, where Nagal can attack.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Nagal's superior second-serve and break-point saving stats on clay give him a structural edge in Bo3, despite similar recent records.
- Nagal's last-15 clay record is 9-6 (60%), identical to Krumich's 9-6 (60%), but Nagal has faced slightly higher-ranked opponents on average.
- Nagal's second-serve points won on clay in last 15: 56.9% vs Krumich's 45.0%, a significant edge in longer rallies.
- Nagal's break-point save rate on clay in last 15: 58.0% vs Krumich's 45.1%, indicating better clutch serving under pressure.
- Career clay win percentage: Nagal 271 wins (58.7% overall) vs Krumich 175 wins (58.4% overall), but Nagal has far more clay experience at higher levels.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSumit NagalEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent match totals and competitive form indicate a high likelihood of exceeding 21.5 games, even in a straight-set match.
- Krumich's last 15 clay matches averaged 23.7 total games per match (355 games / 15 matches).
- Nagal's last 15 clay matches averaged 22.9 total games per match (343 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have a 60% win rate in last 15, suggesting competitive matches; 8 of Krumich's last 15 went over 21.5 games, 7 of Nagal's did.
- H2H is empty, but both players' recent matches against similar-ranked opponents often go to deciding sets or tight two-setters.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players frequently play tight first sets, with a combined tendency to exceed 9.5 games in the opening set.
- Krumich's average games in first set of last 15 clay matches: 9.8 (147 games / 15 matches).
- Nagal's average games in first set of last 15 clay matches: 9.3 (140 games / 15 matches).
- In 10 of Krumich's last 15 matches, the first set had 10+ games; in 8 of Nagal's last 15, the first set had 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nagal's slightly higher first-set win rate in recent clay matches and current momentum give him a marginal edge in set 1.
- Nagal's first-set win conversion career: 84% vs Krumich's 88%, both strong but Nagal's recent form shows more straight-set wins.
- In last 15 clay matches, Nagal won the first set in 10 of 15 matches (67%), while Krumich won first set in 9 of 15 (60%).
- Nagal's last two matches were straight-set wins with dominant first sets (6-3, 6-4).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSumit NagalEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nagal's extremely low ace rate on clay makes it likely the combined total stays under 6.5, even with Krumich's moderate ace count.
- Krumich averages 4.7 aces per match on clay in last 15, Nagal averages only 1.2.
- Combined average aces per match: 5.9, with Nagal's low ace count dragging the total down.
- In Nagal's last 5 matches, he hit 0, 1, 0, 1, 2 aces; Krumich hit 3, 5, 4, 2, 6 in his last 5.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 6.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is near 5.5, and Krumich's vulnerability on second serve could push the total over in a competitive match.
- Krumich averages 3.2 double faults per match on clay in last 15, Nagal averages 2.6.
- Combined average: 5.8 double faults per match, right at the line.
- Krumich's double fault rate is higher under pressure (45.1% break points saved), which could increase in tight games.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Martin Krumich

9W 6L

6-2 6-3#183Joel Schwaerzler

2-6 6-4 6-2#295Philip Henning

6-3 6-7(7) 6-2#177Max Alcala Gurri

6-4 6-2#142Stefano Travaglia

6-4 6-3#220Francesco Passaro

6-4 6-2#235Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-4 6-4#509Niels Mcdonald

7-5 4-6 6-3#400Samuele Pieri

6-3 3-6 6-3#249Felix Balshaw

6-4 6-2#348Marko Topo

6-4 4-6 6-4#492Miguel Tobon

7-5 6-0#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

3-6 7-5 7-6(4)#865Alan Wazny

7-6(3) 6-4#304Maxim Mrva

3-6 6-2 6-3#383Mathys Erhard

Sumit Nagal

9W 6L

6-4 6-4#340Petr Brunclik

6-3 6-3#272Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-1 7-6(2)#244Andrej Nedic

1-6 7-5 6-3#291Federico Bondioli

7-6(3) 6-2#276Juan Bautista Torres

6-2 6-4#263Cezar Cretu

6-2 6-4#258Matej Dodig

6-3 7-5#249Felix Balshaw

6-3 4-6 6-1#263Cezar Cretu

3-6 7-5 6-4#307Duje Ajdukovic

1-6 6-4 6-4#506Benjamin Hassan

6-4 3-6 7-5#352Mili Poljicak

6-4 5-4#340Petr Brunclik

6-2 1-6 7-6(3)#765Mariano Kestelboim

6-1 6-4#155Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MKMartin KrumichKrumich

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Sumit NagalNagalSN

Sumit Nagal carries the stronger recent form — Martin Krumich's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In54.6%+15.8pp70.4%

1st Serve Won70.6%+6.9pp63.7%

2nd Serve Won45.0%+11.9pp56.9%

Aces / Match4.7+3.51.2

Double Faults / Match3.20.6 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.9%+2.7pp40.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted36.5%+8.0pp44.5%

Break Pts Saved45.1%+12.9pp58.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.7%—50.8%

Serve · 2–3

54.6%1st Serve In+15.8pp70.4%

70.6%1st Serve Won+6.9pp63.7%

45.0%2nd Serve Won+11.9pp56.9%

4.7Aces / Match+3.51.2

3.2Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

42.9%Return Pts Won+2.7pp40.2%

Pressure · 0–2

36.5%Break Pts Converted+8.0pp44.5%

45.1%Break Pts Saved+12.9pp58.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.7%Total Pts Won—50.8%