Maddison Inglis #150Australia22 – 0Mai Hontama #189Japan0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Inglis's improved form and Hontama's occasional off-days make a +3.5 game handicap for Inglis a solid value, expecting a tighter contest than H2H history.

• Inglis's last 15 hard-court games won: 48.5%, Hontama's: 56.1%
• Inglis's last 5 matches: all competitive, including a win over world No. 107
• Hontama's last 5: two dominant wins but also a loss to Tagger (4-6 4-6)
• H2H margins: 5 and 9 games, but current form suggests closer match

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Set 2 totals are borderline, but Inglis's tendency for longer second sets and Hontama's occasional lapses after winning the first set could push it over.

• Inglis's last 15 set 2 average: 9.9 games, Hontama's: 9.1
• Inglis's last 5 set 2s: 13, 9, 7, 9, 10 games
• Hontama's last 5 set 2s: 8, 9, 9, 10, 8 games
• H2H set 2s: 10 and 7 games

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player is a big server; combined ace counts rarely exceed 3, making under 3.5 highly probable.

• Inglis's last 15 aces per match: 1.9, Hontama's: 0.1
• Inglis's last 15 hard-court aces per match: 2.3, Hontama's: 0.2
• H2H: Hontama had 2 aces in 2 matches, Inglis's aces not recorded but likely low
• Both players have low ace counts across all surfaces

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average around 4 double faults per match, and Inglis's H2H history shows high double fault counts, making over 7.5 likely.

• Inglis's last 15 double faults per match: 3.7, Hontama's: 4.2
• Inglis's last 15 hard-court double faults per match: 2.9, Hontama's: 4.2
• H2H: Inglis had 9 double faults in 2 matches, Hontama 2
• Combined average in recent matches: ~7.9 double faults