Alexandre Muller #132France11 – 2Mili Poljicak #352Croatia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.50

The read

Poljicak's superior recent clay form (9-6 vs 4-11) and stronger serve/return profile give him a clear edge, though his heavy workload adds some risk.

• Poljicak last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Muller 4-11 (26.7%) on clay
• Poljicak last15 clay total points won 51.3% vs Muller 48.3%
• Poljicak last15 clay first serve points won 76.7% vs Muller 67.4%
• Poljicak last15 clay return points won 38.3% vs Muller 36.6%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Poljicak's matches average longer and both players have shown they can extend sets; a competitive match with at least 22 games is likely.

• Poljicak last15 clay average duration 129.6 min, Muller 92.6 min
• Poljicak last15 clay games won 53%, Muller 44.8%
• Both players have multiple three-set matches in current tournament

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Both players have decent hold rates on clay, and Poljicak's recent sets often go to 10+ games, making over 9.5 games in set 1 probable.

• Poljicak last15 clay first serve points won 76.7% limits breaks
• Muller last15 clay break points saved 62.2%
• Poljicak recent matches include tiebreaks and 7-5 sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Similar hold/break dynamics in set 2, with neither player dominant enough to expect a quick set, supporting over 9.5 games.

• Poljicak last15 clay second serve points won 50.2% vs Muller 47.7%
• Muller last15 clay break points converted 35.5%
• Both players have shown ability to extend sets in recent matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Poljicak's superior game-winning percentage on clay suggests he can cover a -1.5 game handicap, though his workload adds risk.

• Poljicak last15 clay games won 53% vs Muller 44.8%
• Poljicak last15 clay total points won 51.3% vs Muller 48.3%
• Poljicak's recent wins include straight-set victories

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Poljicak's strong first serve and slightly better return numbers in recent clay matches suggest he can edge the opening set, though Muller's career first-set conversion rate adds uncertainty.

• Poljicak last15 clay first serve points won 76.7% vs Muller 67.4%
• Poljicak last15 clay return points won 38.3% vs Muller 36.6%
• Muller career first set win conversion 88% but recent form is poor

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have a history of three-set matches on clay, and their contrasting recent form could lead to a decider.

• Poljicak last15 clay deciding set win rate 54% career, Muller 65% career
• Poljicak last15 clay record 9-6 includes 5 three-set matches
• Muller last15 clay record 4-11 includes 4 three-set matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Poljicak's high ace rate on clay (7.1 per match) alone could push the total over 8.5, with Muller adding a few.

• Poljicak last15 clay aces per match 7.1
• Muller last15 clay aces per match 2.3
• Poljicak career aces 1313 in 287 matches (4.6 per match)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault rate from recent clay matches slightly exceeds 3.5, making over 3.5 a reasonable expectation.

• Poljicak last15 clay double faults per match 2.3
• Muller last15 clay double faults per match 1.4
• Combined average 3.7 double faults per match

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Poljicak's recent matches feature frequent tiebreaks, and Muller's even tiebreak record suggests a tiebreak is a coin-flip possibility.

• Poljicak last15 clay matches include multiple tiebreaks (e.g., 7-6(8), 7-6(6), 7-6(14))
• Muller career tiebreak win rate 51%
• Both players have close sets in recent matches