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Predictions graded

Vilius Gaubas #128Lithuania2Genaro Alberto Olivieri #200Argentina0

Sets 6-2 · 6-3Thu 30 Jul 2026, 15:25 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions0–70%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageVilius Gaubas · 72 places

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

Age 21 and ranked No. 128 in the supplied match data, with a career high of No. 101 reached on 2 March 2026. He is 178 cm and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand; the requested searches did not provide a reliable explicit preferred-surface listing.

Current ranking: #128
Peak ranking: #101 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Argentina

Age 27 and ranked No. 200 in the supplied data and recent ITF listing. He reached No. 131 on 2 October 2023, and the ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #200
Peak ranking: #131 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 09:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Genaro Alberto Olivieri’s superior clay-court form (57.1% win rate) and a 2025 head-to-head victory over Vilius Gaubas make him a strong underdog play at 2.75 odds.

Gaubas has struggled on clay (36.4% win rate) and is vulnerable on serve, while Olivieri’s return game and first-set consistency give him a clear edge. Betting Olivieri to win and the match to go over 21.5 total games are the best angles.

Context

Olivieri's last 14 clay matches: 8-6 record, 50% games won.
- Gaubas' last 11 clay matches: 4-7 record, 46.4% games won.
- Olivieri won their only H2H on clay 1-6, 6-3, 7-5 in 2025.
Gaubas' break points saved on clay: 53.8% (43/80) in last 11 matches.
- Olivieri's break point conversion on clay: 43.8% (46/105) in last 14 matches.
- Gaubas' first-serve points won on clay is only 65.3%, below the Challenger average.
Olivieri's first-set win rate on clay: 64.3% (9/14) in last 14 matches.
- Gaubas' first-set win rate on clay: 36.4% (4/11) in last 11 matches.
- In their H2H, Olivieri lost the first set but still won the match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.75
The read
Olivieri's superior recent clay form (57.1% vs 36.4% win rate) and a head-to-head victory on this surface give him a moderate edge, despite Gaubas' higher ranking.
- Olivieri has a 57.1% win rate on clay in his last 14 matches (8-6), while Gaubas is at 36.4% (4-7) in his last 11 clay matches.
- Olivieri won their only H2H meeting on clay in 2025 (1-6, 6-3, 7-5), showing ability to adjust after losing the first set.
- Gaubas' last 15 overall return points won is 37.2%, below Olivieri's 40.6%, indicating Olivieri has a slight edge in return effectiveness.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGenaro Alberto OlivieriEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given Gaubas' high game averages on clay and the competitive nature of their previous meeting, the match is likely to feature at least 22 games.
- Gaubas' last 15 clay matches average 21.8 games per match (252 games / 11 matches), with 7 of 11 going over 21.5.
- Olivieri's last 14 clay matches average 19.7 games, but his matches against higher-ranked opponents tend to be closer.
- Their only H2H match had 28 games, and both players have shown they can extend sets (Gaubas 47.9% games won, Olivieri 48.8% overall).
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
With both players holding serve reasonably well on clay recently, the first set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.
- Gaubas' last 15 clay matches have seen an average of 9.8 games in the first set, with 8 of 11 going over 9.5.
- Olivieri's last 14 clay matches average 9.1 games in the first set, but 8 of 14 have gone over 9.5.
- In their H2H, the first set had 7 games, but both players' recent serving stats (Gaubas 67.2% first-serve points won, Olivieri 57.3%) suggest a tighter set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set could be tight as both players adjust, and historical data suggests a slight lean towards over 9.5 games.
- Gaubas' second sets on clay average 9.5 games, with 6 of 11 going over 9.5.
- Olivieri's second sets on clay average 8.9 games, but 7 of 14 have gone over 9.5.
- Both players have similar second-serve points won percentages (Gaubas 50%, Olivieri 51.9%), indicating potential for extended games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Olivieri's strong recent first-set performance on clay (64.3%) contrasts with Gaubas' struggles (36.4%), making Olivieri a slight favorite to take the opener.
- Olivieri has won the first set in 9 of his last 15 matches (60%), while Gaubas has won it in 6 of his last 15 (40%).
- On clay, Olivieri's first-set win rate is 64.3% (9/14) in his last 14 matches, compared to Gaubas' 36.4% (4/11).
- Gaubas' first-set win conversion rate is 85% career, but his recent clay first-set performance is poor.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostGenaro Alberto OlivieriEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double-fault rates recently, making under 3.5 total double faults a likely outcome.
- Gaubas averages 2.0 double faults per match in his last 15, and 2.0 on clay.
- Olivieri averages 1.1 double faults per match in his last 15, and 1.1 on clay.
- Combined, their average double faults per match is 3.1, with both players showing consistency below 3.5 in most matches.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas' ace potential, even on clay, makes over 5.5 total aces achievable, though Olivieri's low ace count keeps confidence low.
- Gaubas averages 4.2 aces per match overall in his last 15, and 3.9 on clay in his last 11.
- Olivieri averages only 0.4 aces per match overall, but Gaubas' ace count alone could push the total over 5.5 if he serves well.
- In their H2H, Gaubas hit 1 ace, but his recent grass matches show he can hit 5+ aces (5.0 per match on grass).
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L1-6 6-3 7-5Vilius Gaubas#128vGenaro Alberto Olivieri#200Sep 4, 2025

1 total meetings

Vilius Gaubas

7W 8L

6-1 7-5#208Luka Pavlovic

6-1 6-3#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(1) 7-5#106Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-2#107Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 6-4 7-6(2)#120Kyrian Jacquet

3-6 6-4 3-6 6-3 6-4#152Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#217Henry Searle

4-6 6-3 6-2#187Michael Mmoh

6-4 6-0#289Miguel Damas

4-6 6-4 6-2#150Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-2 2-6 7-5#48Luca Van Assche

6-3 6-1#129Pablo Llamas Ruiz

4-6 6-3 6-4#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-4 6-1#779Federico Coria

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

8W 7L

6-4 6-1#405Carlos Taberner

6-3 6-1#223Guido Ivan Justo

6-2 6-2#586Marcel Zielinski

6-1 6-1—Jeri Lassila

6-2 6-4#174Marco Cecchinato

6-2 6-4#742Noa Vukadin

6-0 6-4#185Taro Daniel

6-1 6-4#162Tristan Boyer

7-6(5) 6-2#267Michele Ribecai

3-6 6-3 6-4#339Max Hans Rehberg

6-1 6-2#196Lautaro Midon

6-3 1-6 7-6(2)#261Martin Krumich

6-3 6-4#155Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-0 3-6 7-6(4)#165Luca Nardi

6-2 7-6(5)#203Elias Ymer

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

VGVilius GaubasGaubas

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Genaro Alberto OlivieriOlivieriGO

Genaro Alberto Olivieri carries the stronger recent form — Vilius Gaubas's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.6%+11.7pp73.3%

1st Serve Won67.2%+9.9pp57.3%

2nd Serve Won51.0%—50.8%

Aces / Match4.2+3.80.4

Double Faults / Match2.00.9 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.2%+3.4pp40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted31.4%+11.3pp42.7%

Break Pts Saved62.5%+3.7pp58.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.0%—48.3%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

61.6%1st Serve In+11.7pp73.3%

67.2%1st Serve Won+9.9pp57.3%

51.0%2nd Serve Won—50.8%

4.2Aces / Match+3.80.4

2.0Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

37.2%Return Pts Won+3.4pp40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

31.4%Break Pts Converted+11.3pp42.7%

62.5%Break Pts Saved+3.7pp58.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.0%Total Pts Won—48.3%

Vilius Gaubas #128Lithuania2Genaro Alberto Olivieri #200Argentina0

Player Profiles

Vilius Gaubas

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Genaro Alberto Olivieri 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Vilius Gaubas @ 1.40

Head-to-Head

Vilius Gaubas

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Stat Battle