United StatesATP WashingtonFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Taylor Fritz #10United States2Kamil Majchrzak #72Poland0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Wed 29 Jul 2026, 19:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions8–189%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTaylor Fritz · 62 places

Taylor Fritz

United States

Reached career-high No. 4 on 18 November 2024. ATP says he likes all surfaces and lists his serve and forehand as his favourite shots; he has managed knee tendinitis during 2026.

Current ranking: #10
Peak ranking: #4 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: All surfaces
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Kamil Majchrzak

Poland

Reached career-high No. 45 on 29 June 2026. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface, and public records credit him with his first ATP Tour title at the 2026 Libéma Open.

Current ranking: #72
Peak ranking: #45 · 2026
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 23:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Taylor Fritz’s dominant serve and hard-court edge make him a heavy favorite against Kamil Majchrzak, who is fatigued after a two-hour win over Tommy Paul.

The best betting angle is Fritz to win 2-0 at 1.73 odds, offering a 10.2-point value edge, while the moneyline is overpriced and Majchrzak 2-1 is a strong avoid.

Context

On 8 July at Wimbledon, Fritz said knee pain returned three games into his quarter-final and required a second-set medical timeout.
- He completed Washington's first round on 27 July, beating Zizou Bergs 6-3 6-4 in 1h19, confirming availability while leaving his knee response relevant.
Majchrzak's win over Paul lasted 2h00 and finished on 28 July.
- Fritz played his 1h19 opener on 27 July, giving him an extra day of rest.
H2H: Fritz won 6-1 6-1 on hard court in 2022.
- Fritz won 78% of first-serve points and 64% of second-serve points in that match, while Majchrzak won only 30% of return points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Taylor Fritz

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Fritz's elite serve and hard-court pedigree make him a strong favorite, but the odds are slightly short relative to the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Taylor Fritz

1.35fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Fritz's strong serving and break-point saving in recent matches should allow him to start fast and take the opening set.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Taylor Fritz

1.35fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Fritz's overall game quality and experience in closing matches should see him through the second set if he maintains his serve.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Fritz's superior hard-court pedigree, dominant H2H, and elite serve numbers give him a clear edge over Majchrzak, who has only one hard-court match in his last 15.
- Fritz last15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Majchrzak 10-5 (66.7%)
- Fritz career hard-court wins 275 vs Majchrzak 122, Fritz surface edge
- H2H: Fritz won 6-1 6-1 on hard in 2022, dominant serve/return stats
- Fritz last15 aces/match 16.3, first-serve points won 81.8%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTaylor FritzEstimated chance78%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fritz's dominant serve and Majchrzak's limited hard-court exposure suggest a relatively quick match with few games.
- Fritz last15 games won% 54.4%, Majchrzak 53.2%
- Fritz last15 average match duration 116 min, Majchrzak 110.5 min
- H2H match had only 14 games total
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fritz's serve advantage and hard-court pedigree should allow him to cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Fritz last15 games won% 54.4%, Majchrzak 53.2%
- Fritz last15 aces/match 16.3, Majchrzak 6.7
- Fritz career hard-court win% 63.6%, Majchrzak 63.7%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTaylor Fritz -3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fritz's serve dominance could lead to a quick first set, but Majchrzak's recent win over Paul shows he can compete.
- Fritz last15 first-serve points won 81.8%, Majchrzak 73.6%
- Fritz last15 break points saved 67.3%, Majchrzak 59.5%
- Fritz hard-court last15 (1 match) games won 63.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Fritz maintains pressure, the second set could also be short, but Majchrzak's fighting spirit may extend it.
- Fritz last15 second-serve points won 56.8%, Majchrzak 55.1%
- Fritz career hard-court win% 63.6%, Majchrzak 63.7%
- Majchrzak last15 hard-court (1 match) games won 56%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Fritz's strong serving and break-point saving in recent matches should allow him to start fast and take the opening set.
- Fritz career first-set win conversion 86%, Majchrzak 87%
- Fritz last15 first-serve points won 81.8%, Majchrzak 73.6%
- Fritz last15 break points saved 67.3%, Majchrzak 59.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTaylor FritzEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Fritz's overall game quality and experience in closing matches should see him through the second set if he maintains his serve.
- Fritz last15 second-serve points won 56.8%, Majchrzak 55.1%
- Fritz last15 return points won 33.8%, Majchrzak 36.8%
- Fritz career deciding-set win% 56%, Majchrzak 51%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTaylor FritzEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fritz's superior form and surface fit make a straight-sets win likely, avoiding a deciding set.
- Fritz last15 sets won 69%, Majchrzak 64.1%
- Fritz career deciding-set win% 56%, Majchrzak 51%
- H2H was straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fritz's high ace count should push the total over 18.5, with Majchrzak contributing a few.
- Fritz last15 aces/match 16.3, Majchrzak 6.7
- Fritz hard-court last15 (1 match) aces 8, Majchrzak 8
- Fritz career total aces 7067
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 18.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fritz's serve dominance reduces the likelihood of tiebreaks, but Majchrzak's recent tight matches keep it possible.
- Fritz career tiebreak win% 56%, Majchrzak 54%
- Fritz last15 first-serve points won 81.8%, Majchrzak 73.6%
- H2H had no tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double-fault rates, making under 4.5 likely in a best-of-3 match.
- Fritz last15 double faults/match 1.8, Majchrzak 1.3
- Fritz career double faults 1646, Majchrzak 1260
- Fritz hard-court last15 (1 match) double faults 3, Majchrzak 2
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

Taylor Fritz has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 15 matches where Taylor Fritz was predicted to win, he fulfilled that prediction 11 times. His average estimated probability in those matches was 72.2%, and he slightly outperformed expectations with 11 wins versus 10.8 expected. The four losses all came when he was the favorite, with an average estimated probability of 68.3% in those missed predictions.

Recent evidence for Taylor Fritz15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·ATP Washington

#10Taylor Fritz2-0#34Zizou Bergs

BetBugsTaylor Fritz to win·65%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#10Taylor Fritz2-0#34Zizou Bergs

Taylor Fritz to win

65%probability

Taylor Fritz won

Matched

8 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#7Taylor Fritz0-3#3Alexander Zverev

BetBugsTaylor Fritz to win·58%

Missed

8 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#7Taylor Fritz0-3#3Alexander Zverev

Taylor Fritz to win

58%probability

Alexander Zverev won

Missed

6 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#7Taylor Fritz3-0#11Alexander Bublik

BetBugsTaylor Fritz to win·72%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#7Taylor Fritz3-0#11Alexander Bublik

Taylor Fritz to win

72%probability

Taylor Fritz won

Matched

4 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#7Taylor Fritz3-1#69Lorenzo Sonego

BetBugsTaylor Fritz to win·78%

Matched

4 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#7Taylor Fritz3-1#69Lorenzo Sonego

Taylor Fritz to win

78%probability

Taylor Fritz won

Matched

2 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#7Taylor Fritz3-0#113Patrick Kypson

BetBugsTaylor Fritz to win·88%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#7Taylor Fritz3-0#113Patrick Kypson

Taylor Fritz to win

88%probability

Taylor Fritz won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 6-1Taylor Fritz#10vKamil Majchrzak#72Mar 13, 2022

1 total meetings

Taylor Fritz

12W 3L

6-3 6-4#36Zizou Bergs

6-4 6-4 6-2#2Alexander Zverev

7-6(1) 6-4 6-4#11Alexander Bublik

4-6 6-3 6-4 7-6(5)#80Lorenzo Sonego

6-2 6-2 7-5#113Patrick Kypson

6-3 6-4 6-3#152Dusan Lajovic

6-4 6-4#19Frances Tiafoe

6-7(4) 6-4 7-5#2Alexander Zverev

6-7(5) 7-6(8) 7-6(3)#8Ben Shelton

6-2 6-4#55Fabian Marozsan

7-6(4) 5-7 6-4#36Zizou Bergs

6-4 2-6 6-4#8Ben Shelton

6-4 6-4#11Alexander Bublik

5-7 7-5 7-5#81Mattia Bellucci

6-7(4) 7-5 7-6(3)#63Martin Landaluce

Kamil Majchrzak

10W 5L

7-5 7-6(4)#21Tommy Paul

2-6 6-2 6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#76Zachary Svajda

6-3 7-5 7-5#30Alejandro Tabilo

7-5 7-6(4)#12Jiri Lehecka

6-3 2-6 7-6(5)#6Alex De Minaur

7-6(4) 6-1#7Daniil Medvedev

6-4 6-3#4Felix Auger Aliassime

6-0 6-3#238James McCabe

6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(4)#115Otto Virtanen

7-6(6) 6-7(5) 7-6(7)#115Otto Virtanen

7-6(6) 6-3#94Sho Shimabukuro

6-3 6-3#219Felix Gill

7-6(3) 6-3#238James McCabe

6-1 6-3 6-4#30Alejandro Tabilo

1-6 6-2 6-3#75Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TFTaylor FritzFritz

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzakKM

Taylor Fritz carries the stronger recent form — Kamil Majchrzak's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In67.3%+1.6pp65.7%

1st Serve Won81.8%+8.2pp73.6%

2nd Serve Won56.8%+1.7pp55.1%

Aces / Match16.3+9.66.7

Double Faults / Match1.80.5 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.8%+3.0pp36.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted37.6%—37.5%

Break Pts Saved67.3%+7.8pp59.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.2%+1.2pp52.0%

Serve · 4–1

67.3%1st Serve In+1.6pp65.7%

81.8%1st Serve Won+8.2pp73.6%

56.8%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp55.1%

16.3Aces / Match+9.66.7

1.8Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

33.8%Return Pts Won+3.0pp36.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

37.6%Break Pts Converted—37.5%

67.3%Break Pts Saved+7.8pp59.5%

Points · 1–0

53.2%Total Pts Won+1.2pp52.0%

Taylor Fritz #10United States2Kamil Majchrzak #72Poland0

Player Profiles

Taylor Fritz

Kamil Majchrzak

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Taylor Fritz 2-0

Taylor Fritz 2-0

Taylor Fritz

Taylor Fritz

Taylor Fritz

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Kamil Majchrzak 2-1 @ 7.50

Taylor Fritz has been highly reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Taylor Fritz

Kamil Majchrzak

Stat Battle