CanadaVancouver - CanadaFinished

Predictions graded

Benjamin Bonzi #101France2Michael Mmoh #187United States0

Sets 7-5 · 6-4Wed 29 Jul 2026, 21:50 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBenjamin Bonzi · 86 places

Benjamin Bonzi

France

Reached career-high No. 42 in February 2023 and won his first ATP Tour title at Metz in 2024. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #101
Peak ranking: #42 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Michael Mmoh

United States

Reached career-high No. 81 following his 2023 US Open third-round run. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface, and his first seven Challenger titles all came on hard courts.

Current ranking: #187
Peak ranking: #81 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 15:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Michael Mmoh’s strong hard-court form (9-3, 75% win rate) and superior return game (40.1% return points won) give him a clear edge over Benjamin Bonzi, who is coming off a taxing three-set opener.

Back Mmoh to win at 2.30 odds for an 11.5-point edge, and consider over 2.5 sets at 2.10 given Bonzi’s high three-set frequency.

Context

Mmoh's last15 hard-court record is 9-3 (75% win rate) with 12 matches tracked.
- Bonzi's last15 hard-court record is 1-0, but only 1 match tracked, so his surface form is unclear.
- Mmoh's return points won on hard courts is 41.9%, well above Bonzi's 30.8% in his single match.
Bonzi retired against Gabriel Diallo at Wimbledon on June 30, 2026.
- He played a 1-hour-40-minute three-setter on July 28, one day before this match.
- No medical stoppage was reported in his Vancouver opener, but the recent retirement and workload are concerns.
Mmoh defeated Bonzi 6-3, 7-5 in the only H2H match, played on indoor hard in 2024.
- Mmoh served 10 aces and won 75% of first-serve points in that match.
- Bonzi won only 29% of return points, struggling to pressure Mmoh's serve.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Mmoh's superior recent hard-court form (75% win rate over 12 matches) and stronger return game (40.1% return points won) give him a slight edge over Bonzi, whose hard-court sample is too small to trust.
- Mmoh's last15 overall record: 9-6 (60%), Bonzi: 8-7 (53.3%)
- Mmoh's last15 hard-court record: 9-3 (75%), Bonzi: 1-0 (100% but only 1 match tracked)
- Mmoh's last15 return points won: 40.1% vs Bonzi's 35.3%
- H2H: Mmoh won their only meeting 6-3 7-5 on indoor hard in 2024
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMichael MmohEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing competitive recent form and Bonzi's matches averaging over 25 games, a tight contest likely pushes total games over 22.5.
- Bonzi's last15 average games per match: 25.1 (376 total games / 15 matches)
- Mmoh's last15 average games per match: 21.9 (329 total games / 15 matches)
- Both players' last15 hard-court matches: Bonzi 28 games (1 match), Mmoh 21.8 games (12 matches)
- H2H match had 21 games, but both players are in solid form with competitive recent matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players average close to 10 games in first sets over their last 15 matches, making over 9.5 a likely outcome in a competitive opener.
- Bonzi's last15 set1 average games: 9.7 (146 games / 15 sets)
- Mmoh's last15 set1 average games: 9.9 (149 games / 15 sets)
- Mmoh's last15 hard-court set1 average: 9.8 games (12 sets)
- H2H set1 had 9 games, but recent form suggests tighter opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Set 2 averages hover around 9.5 games for both, and with the match expected to be close, over 9.5 is a reasonable low-confidence lean.
- Bonzi's last15 set2 average games: 9.5 (143 games / 15 sets)
- Mmoh's last15 set2 average games: 9.3 (140 games / 15 sets)
- Mmoh's last15 hard-court set2 average: 9.3 games (12 sets)
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
With Bonzi's high three-set frequency and both players' solid deciding-set records, a three-setter is more likely than not in this evenly matched contest.
- Bonzi's last15 three-set match rate: 7/15 (46.7%)
- Mmoh's last15 three-set match rate: 5/15 (33.3%)
- Mmoh's last15 hard-court three-set rate: 5/12 (41.7%)
- Both players have deciding-set win rates above 55% career
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mmoh's slightly better first-set record and stronger break-point saving in recent matches suggest he can edge the opener, though Bonzi's limited hard-court data adds uncertainty.
- Mmoh's last15 first-set win rate: 9/15 (60%), Bonzi: 8/15 (53.3%)
- Mmoh's last15 hard-court first-serve points won: 75.3% vs Bonzi's 84.4% (1 match)
- Mmoh's last15 break points saved: 65.7% vs Bonzi's 61.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMichael MmohEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mmoh's high double-fault rate (5.5 per match) alone nearly covers the line, making over 6.5 combined double faults a strong probability.
- Mmoh's last15 double faults per match: 5.5, Bonzi: 1.3
- Combined average double faults: 6.8 per match
- Mmoh's last15 hard-court double faults: 5.5 per match (12 matches)
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages sit just below 10, but with Bonzi's potential for higher ace counts on hard courts, over 10.5 is a marginal lean.
- Bonzi's last15 aces per match: 5.1, Mmoh: 4.7
- Combined average aces per match: 9.8
- Bonzi's last15 hard-court aces: 11 in 1 match, Mmoh: 4.7 in 12 matches
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 10.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Michael Mmoh has been highly reliable when projected to win

Michael Mmoh has fulfilled 6 of 8 predictions when projected to win, with an average estimated probability of 64.5%. The two missed predictions both resulted in straight-set losses, and the current estimated probability of 55% sits below the historical range of 58–78%, suggesting this projection is less confident than past winning forecasts.

Recent evidence for Michael Mmoh8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#210Yu Hsiou Hsu0-2#187Michael Mmoh

BetBugsMichael Mmoh to win·65%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#210Yu Hsiou Hsu0-2#187Michael Mmoh

Michael Mmoh to win

65%probability

Michael Mmoh won

Matched

30 Jun·Cary - USA

#356Yuta Shimizu0-2#192Michael Mmoh

BetBugsMichael Mmoh to win·62%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

Cary - USA

#356Yuta Shimizu0-2#192Michael Mmoh

Michael Mmoh to win

62%probability

Michael Mmoh won

Matched

13 Jun·ATP London

#69Aleksandar Kovacevic2-0#195Michael Mmoh

BetBugsMichael Mmoh to win·62%

Missed

13 Jun 2026

ATP London

#69Aleksandar Kovacevic2-0#195Michael Mmoh

Michael Mmoh to win

62%probability

Aleksandar Kovacevic won

Missed

7 Jun·Ilkley - Great Britain

#216Michael Mmoh0-2#368Filippo Romano

BetBugsMichael Mmoh to win·62%

Missed

7 Jun 2026

Ilkley - Great Britain

#216Michael Mmoh0-2#368Filippo Romano

Michael Mmoh to win

62%probability

Filippo Romano won

Missed

30 May·Little Rock - USA

#216Michael Mmoh2-0#194Bernard Tomic

BetBugsMichael Mmoh to win·58%

Matched

30 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#216Michael Mmoh2-0#194Bernard Tomic

Michael Mmoh to win

58%probability

Michael Mmoh won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 7-5Benjamin Bonzi#101vMichael Mmoh#187Jan 29, 2024

1 total meetings

Benjamin Bonzi

8W 7L

3-6 6-3 6-4#344Blaise Bicknell

1-6 4-6 7-6(5) 6-3 3-1 ret.#99Gabriel Diallo

6-4 6-4#126Christopher O'Connell

6-1 7-6(5)#110Jacob Fearnley

6-3 2-6 6-3#138Tomas Barrios Vera

6-2 6-4#6Alex De Minaur

6-4 3-6 6-3#29Ugo Humbert

6-4 6-4#411Mees Rottgering

6-7(5) 6-2 7-5#171Bernard Tomic

6-2 7-6(3)#350Marc Polmans

6-3 6-4 6-2#2Alexander Zverev

6-4 6-3#67Tallon Griekspoor

2-6 6-4 6-0#213Moise Kouame

6-4 6-3#116Dalibor Svrcina

6-7(6) 6-1 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

Michael Mmoh

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#222Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-6(7) 3-6 3-3 ret.—William Manning

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#380Yuta Shimizu

4-6 6-3 6-2#128Vilius Gaubas

7-6(4) 6-4#95Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-2 6-4#300Filippo Romano

6-2 6-4#184Colton Smith

1-6 6-1 6-2#390Justin Boulais

6-3 6-3#171Bernard Tomic

6-2 6-2#535Timo Legout

5-7 6-3 6-1#328Hayato Matsuoka

6-3 6-4#170Gauthier Onclin

6-7(6) 6-4 ret.#419Niels Visker

3-6 7-5 6-3#318Calvin Hemery

6-0 6-2—Elijah Sanogo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BBBenjamin BonziBonzi

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Michael MmohMmohMM

Benjamin Bonzi carries the stronger recent form — Michael Mmoh's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In66.1%+7.7pp58.4%

1st Serve Won69.1%+3.7pp72.8%

2nd Serve Won51.1%+3.0pp48.1%

Aces / Match5.1+0.44.7

Double Faults / Match1.34.2 fewer5.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.3%+4.8pp40.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.8%+0.9pp44.9%

Break Pts Saved61.8%+3.9pp65.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.6%+1.8pp51.4%

Serve · 4–1

66.1%1st Serve In+7.7pp58.4%

69.1%1st Serve Won+3.7pp72.8%

51.1%2nd Serve Won+3.0pp48.1%

5.1Aces / Match+0.44.7

1.3Double Faults / Match4.2 fewer5.5

Return · 0–1

35.3%Return Pts Won+4.8pp40.1%

Pressure · 1–1

45.8%Break Pts Converted+0.9pp44.9%

61.8%Break Pts Saved+3.9pp65.7%

Points · 0–1

49.6%Total Pts Won+1.8pp51.4%

Benjamin Bonzi

Michael Mmoh

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Michael Mmoh

Over 2.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Benjamin Bonzi

Michael Mmoh

Stat Battle