Pedro Martinez Portero vs Hugo Dellien: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Dellien's superior recent clay form, higher break point conversion, and stronger first-serve performance give him a clear edge, supported by a winning H2H record on the surface.
- Dellien's last 15 clay record: 9-5 (64.3% win rate), Martinez: 7-7 (50%)
- Dellien's clay break point conversion: 48.9% vs Martinez's 35.7%
- Dellien's clay first serve points won: 70% vs Martinez's 65%
- H2H: Dellien leads 2-1 on clay, including a straight-set win in 2023
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance60%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently engage in close, three-set battles on clay, and their recent match lengths and H2H history point to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games.
- Dellien's last 15 clay matches average 22.8 games, Martinez's average 22.4
- Both players have high deciding set rates: Dellien 6/14 matches went 3 sets, Martinez 5/14
- H2H matches averaged 21.3 games, with two of three exceeding 21.5
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve reasonably well and returning at similar rates, the first set is likely to be tight, though the low confidence reflects variability in early-set dynamics.
- Dellien's last 15 clay first sets average 9.6 games, Martinez's average 9.1
- Both players have similar return points won on clay (~39%), suggesting competitive sets
- H2H first sets: 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 (two of three over 9.5)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Similar to set 1, the second set is expected to be competitive given their balanced serve and return stats, though the low confidence acknowledges the potential for a lopsided set if one player dominates.
- Dellien's last 15 clay second sets average 9.8 games, Martinez's average 9.4
- Both players have break point save rates around 55-59%, indicating potential for extended games
- Recent form shows both players capable of bouncing back after losing first sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches for both players on clay, along with their ability to come back from deficits, makes a deciding set more likely than not.
- Dellien's last 15 clay matches: 6/14 went to 3 sets (42.9%), Martinez: 5/14 (35.7%)
- Combined deciding set rate in recent clay matches: 39.3%
- Both players have high comeback rates: Dellien 26% career, Martinez 21%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Dellien's higher first-set win rate and stronger serve on clay suggest he is more likely to start fast, though Martinez's competitiveness keeps it a low-confidence edge.
- Dellien's first set win rate in last 15 clay matches: 64.3% (9/14), Martinez: 50% (7/14)
- Dellien's clay first serve points won: 70% vs Martinez's 65%
- Martinez's recent first set loss to Darderi (0-6) indicates vulnerability
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average of 2.8 double faults per match on clay suggests a slight lean toward over 2.5, though the low confidence reflects the inherent variability in double fault counts.
- Dellien's clay double faults per match: 1.6, Martinez: 1.2
- Combined average double faults per match on clay: 2.8
- Both players have similar double fault rates in recent matches
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dellien's superior serving power on clay, averaging over 3 aces per match, combined with Martinez's modest ace output, makes over 5.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Dellien's clay aces per match: 3.4, Martinez: 0.9
- Combined average aces per match on clay: 4.3
- Dellien's higher ace count (3.4) pushes the total closer to the over
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Pedro Martinez Portero #159Spain0Hugo Dellien #144Bolivia2

Player Profiles

Pedro Martinez Portero

Hugo Dellien

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Hugo Dellien

Hugo Dellien 2-0

Hugo Dellien 2-1

Hugo Dellien

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Pedro Martinez Portero

Hugo Dellien

Stat Battle