Maks Kasnikowski vs Frederico Ferreira Silva: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Kasnikowski's recent form (9-6 overall, 60% win rate) significantly outpaces Ferreira Silva's (4-11, 26.7%), with a clear edge in total points won and return performance over the last 15 matches, making him the favorite on clay.
- Kasnikowski last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Ferreira Silva 4-11 (26.7%)
- Kasnikowski last15 clay record 9-6 (60%), Ferreira Silva 4-10 (28.6%) on clay
- Kasnikowski last15 total points won 51.3% vs Ferreira Silva 48.3%
- Kasnikowski last15 return points won 38.4% vs Ferreira Silva 36.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMaks KasnikowskiEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players frequently going to three sets and averaging over 22 games per match in their last 15, the total games line of 21.5 is likely to be surpassed given their competitive recent numbers.
- Kasnikowski last15 average games per match 23.1, Ferreira Silva 22.7
- Kasnikowski last15 3-set matches: 7 of 15, Ferreira Silva 6 of 15
- Both players have similar games won % (Kasnikowski 51.7%, Ferreira Silva 46.8%)
- Kasnikowski last15 average duration 106 min, Ferreira Silva 121 min
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ferreira Silva's solid break point saving (58.9%) and only a 5% gap in games won percentage suggest he can keep the match within a 3.5-game margin, even in a loss.
- Kasnikowski last15 average games won per match 11.9, Ferreira Silva 10.6
- Kasnikowski last15 games won % 51.7%, Ferreira Silva 46.8%
- Ferreira Silva last15 break points saved 58.9% vs Kasnikowski 53.1%
- Head-to-head: no prior meetings, but Ferreira Silva's experience (901 career matches) may keep it close
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFrederico Ferreira Silva +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players averaging over 9 games per set and solid serving numbers, the first set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.
- Kasnikowski last15 average games per set 9.4, Ferreira Silva 9.4
- Kasnikowski last15 first set average games: 9.3, Ferreira Silva 9.1
- Both players have first serve points won % above 66%
- Ferreira Silva last15 break points saved 58.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Kasnikowski's superior first serve points won (73.4% vs 66.8%) and stronger recent set-winning momentum give him an edge to take the opening set, despite Ferreira Silva's high career first-set conversion.
- Kasnikowski first set win conversion career 83%, Ferreira Silva 88%
- Kasnikowski last15 first serve points won 73.4% vs Ferreira Silva 66.8%
- Kasnikowski last15 break points saved 53.1% vs Ferreira Silva 58.9%
- Kasnikowski won first set in 3 of last 5 matches, Ferreira Silva in 1 of last 5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMaks KasnikowskiEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With nearly half of their recent matches going the distance and both showing competitive games-won percentages, a three-set match is more likely than not.
- Kasnikowski last15 3-set matches: 7 of 15 (47%), Ferreira Silva 6 of 15 (40%)
- Combined 3-set rate in last15: 13 of 30 matches (43%)
- Both players have similar games won % (Kasnikowski 51.7%, Ferreira Silva 46.8%)
- Ferreira Silva career deciding set win rate 58% suggests competitiveness
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With a combined average of 2.9 double faults per match in their last 15, and both players showing relatively low career rates, staying under 3.5 is likely.
- Kasnikowski last15 double faults per match 0.9, Ferreira Silva 2.0
- Combined average double faults per match 2.9 in last15
- Kasnikowski career double faults 601 in 321 matches (1.9 per match)
- Ferreira Silva career double faults 1387 in 901 matches (1.5 per match)
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 3.5Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Maks Kasnikowski #247Poland1Frederico Ferreira Silva #235Portugal2

Player Profiles

Maks Kasnikowski

Frederico Ferreira Silva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Maks Kasnikowski 2-1

Maks Kasnikowski

Maks Kasnikowski

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Frederico Ferreira Silva @ 2.60

Frederico Ferreira Silva 2-1 @ 5.50

Maks Kasnikowski

Frederico Ferreira Silva

Stat Battle