San MarinoSan Marino - San MarinoFinished

Predictions graded

Carlo Alberto Caniato #391Italy0Andrea Pellegrino #138Italy2

Sets 4-6 · 0-6Tue 28 Jul 2026, 18:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions2–529%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrea Pellegrino · 253 places

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Italy

Reached a career-high No. 267 in September 2025. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #391
Peak ranking: #267 · 2025
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Andrea Pellegrino

Italy

Reached a career-high No. 109 in June 2026. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface, and he reached the Rome fourth round in May 2026.

Current ranking: #138
Peak ranking: #109 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 06:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Andrea Pellegrino's superior clay form, return stats, and break-point conversion make him the clear favorite against a struggling Carlo Alberto Caniato.

The best betting value is Pellegrino to win 2-1 at 3.75, while the over 2.5 sets and Caniato +3.5 games also offer solid angles in what should be a competitive match.

Context

Lost 6-3 6-1 to Calvin Hemery (ranked 312) on 2 July.
- Lost 6-3 7-5 to Hugo Dellien (ranked 144) on 7 July.
- Lost 3-6 7-6(5) 6-4 to Maxim Mrva (ranked 303) on 14 July.
Pellegrino lost 7-6(3) 6-7(7) 6-3 to world No. 14 Andrey Rublev on 16 July.
- He beat No. 131 Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 6-3 6-2 and lost to No. 180 Gonzalo Bueno in three sets.
- Caniato's last five opponents have an average ranking of 332, with none inside the top 140.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Andrea Pellegrino

1.44fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Pellegrino's superior recent clay form and return/break conversion edge give him a clear advantage, though the odds imply a higher probability than our model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Andrea Pellegrino

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Pellegrino's recent clay first-set win rate and strong conversion rate give him a slight edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Pellegrino's superior recent clay form (61.5% win rate vs 46.7%) and stronger return/break conversion edge give him a clear advantage on this surface.
- Pellegrino last15 clay record: 8-5 (61.5%), Caniato last15 clay record: 7-8 (46.7%)
- Pellegrino last15 clay return points won: 39%, Caniato: 36.1%
- Pellegrino last15 clay break point conversion: 54.9%, Caniato: 41.2%
- Pellegrino ranking: 138, Caniato ranking: 391
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrea PellegrinoEstimated chance65%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Caniato's competitive game win rate and low blowout frequency suggest he will keep the match close, covering a +3.5 game handicap.
- Caniato last15 clay games won %: 50.7%, Pellegrino: 53.9%
- Caniato last15 clay average games per match: 22.9, Pellegrino: 25.5
- Caniato lost by more than 3.5 games in only 4 of last 15 clay matches (27%)
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostCarlo Alberto Caniato +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently go to three sets on clay, and their combined average games per match exceed 22, making over 21.5 games likely.
- Caniato last15 clay average games per match: 22.9 (343 games / 15 matches)
- Pellegrino last15 clay average games per match: 25.5 (332 games / 13 matches)
- Both players have high three-set match frequency: Caniato 40% (6 of 15), Pellegrino 46% (6 of 13)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Pellegrino's higher first-set win rate in recent clay matches and strong conversion rate suggest he is likely to start fast against a lower-ranked opponent.
- Pellegrino last15 clay first set win rate: 61.5% (8 of 13 matches won first set)
- Caniato last15 overall first set win rate: 46.7% (7 of 15 matches won first set)
- Pellegrino career first set win conversion: 82%, Caniato: 83%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrea PellegrinoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a high frequency of three-set matches on clay in their last 15, making over 2.5 sets a value pick.
- Caniato last15 clay three-set rate: 40% (6 of 15)
- Pellegrino last15 clay three-set rate: 46% (6 of 13)
- Combined three-set probability based on recent form exceeds 50%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With closely matched game win percentages and frequent three-set matches, a tiebreak is likely in this competitive clay-court encounter.
- Caniato last15 clay tiebreak frequency: 33% (5 of 15 matches had at least one tiebreak)
- Pellegrino last15 clay tiebreak frequency: 38% (5 of 13 matches had at least one tiebreak)
- Both players have career tiebreak win rates near 50% (Caniato 43%, Pellegrino 53%)
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players on clay exceed 6.5, making over 6.5 aces likely in a match expected to go over 21.5 games.
- Caniato last15 clay aces per match: 4.5
- Pellegrino last15 clay aces per match: 2.9
- Combined average aces per match: 7.4
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average 2.7 double faults per match on clay, and with a likely three-set match, the total should exceed 5.5.
- Caniato last15 clay double faults per match: 2.7
- Pellegrino last15 clay double faults per match: 2.7
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.4
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Carlo Alberto Caniato

7W 8L

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#303Maxim Mrva

6-3 7-5#144Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-1#312Calvin Hemery

6-2 6-1#530Izan Almazan Valiente

4-6 6-3 6-4#173Marco Cecchinato

7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-4#290Federico Bondioli

7-5 6-4#437Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-0 6-0#498Giuseppe La Vela

7-6(3) 6-1#461Milos Karol

7-6(4) 6-3#453Alafia Ayeni

7-6(6) 6-4#448Daniel Siniakov

6-2 7-6(5)#305Dali Blanch

7-6(3) 7-5#213Andrea Guerrieri

7-6(5) 2-6 6-4#472Lorenzo Carboni

6-2 6-4#526Federico Arnaboldi

Andrea Pellegrino

9W 6L

6-3 5-7 6-4#180Gonzalo Bueno

6-3 6-2—Joao Silva

7-6(3) 6-7(7) 6-3#14Andrey Rublev

6-3 6-2#131Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

3-6 6-4 6-3#231Raul Brancaccio

6-3 6-4#181Max Alcala Gurri

6-2 6-1#166Tristan Boyer

2-6 7-6(5) 6-4#239Jay Clarke

6-3 5-7 6-3#59Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-2 6-3#735Pierluigi Basile

4-6 7-5 6-3#177Roberto Carballes Baena

4-6 7-6(5) 6-1#247Maks Kasnikowski

6-4 7-6(4) 6-3#9Flavio Cobolli

7-6(5) 6-2#173Marco Cecchinato

3-6 6-0 6-3#186Lloyd Harris

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CCCarlo Alberto CaniatoCaniato

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Andrea PellegrinoPellegrinoAP

Carlo Alberto Caniato carries the stronger recent form — Andrea Pellegrino's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.2%+1.0pp59.2%

1st Serve Won73.1%+7.0pp66.1%

2nd Serve Won52.4%+2.4pp54.8%

Aces / Match4.5+2.02.5

Double Faults / Match2.7—2.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.1%+1.9pp38.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.2%+13.5pp54.7%

Break Pts Saved66.3%+0.8pp65.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.6%—50.5%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

60.2%1st Serve In+1.0pp59.2%

73.1%1st Serve Won+7.0pp66.1%

52.4%2nd Serve Won+2.4pp54.8%

4.5Aces / Match+2.02.5

2.7Double Faults / Match—2.6

Return · 0–1

36.1%Return Pts Won+1.9pp38.0%

Pressure · 1–1

41.2%Break Pts Converted+13.5pp54.7%

66.3%Break Pts Saved+0.8pp65.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.6%Total Pts Won—50.5%