TürkiyeSamsun - TurkeyFinished

Predictions graded

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine #508France2Kerem Yilmaz #1055Türkiye1

Sets 2-6 · 6-2 · 6-3Mon 27 Jul 2026, 07:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–443%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageConstantin Bittoun Kouzmine · 547 places

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

France

He is currently ranked No. 508 and reached a career-high No. 462 on 27 November 2023. He is a 178 cm left-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #508
Peak ranking: #462 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 178 cm

Kerem Yilmaz

Türkiye

The ITF listed the 19-year-old Turkish right-hander at ATP No. 1055 on 22 June 2026, then his career high. His preferred surface is hard.

Current ranking: #1055
Peak ranking: #1055 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Jul 2026, 15:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine holds a dominant 2-0 H2H edge over Kerem Yilmaz, including a 6-3, 6-1 win last month, and his superior hard-court stats (57% career win rate vs.

45.6%) make him a strong favorite. The best betting value is on Bittoun Kouzmine to win 2-0 at 1.73, with a 7.2-point edge, while the under 21.5 total games also offers medium-confidence value based on H2H trends and recent match lengths.

Context

H2H record: Bittoun Kouzmine leads 2-0, both on hard courts, most recently 6-3, 6-1 on 26 June 2026.
- In H2H matches, Bittoun Kouzmine converted 75% of break points (9/12) and won 53% of return points.
- Yilmaz won only 36% of return points and 51% of first-serve points across the two H2H matches.
Bittoun Kouzmine lost 4-6, 3-6 to Matteo Martineau in Segovia on 21 July, a Challenger first-round match.
- The Samsun match is scheduled for 26 July, leaving five days for travel from Spain to Turkey and recovery.
- No injury or retirement concerns are reported, but the quick turnaround adds a minor workload question.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

1.38fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Bittoun Kouzmine's superior first-serve effectiveness and H2H pattern of taking early leads support a high probability of winning set 1.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Bittoun Kouzmine's dominant H2H record, superior career hard-court pedigree, and slightly better recent game-level stats give him a clear edge in this Bo3 hard-court match.
- H2H: Bittoun Kouzmine leads 2-0, both on hard, most recent 6-3 6-1 on 2026-06-26.
- Last 15 overall: Bittoun Kouzmine 9-6 (60%), Yilmaz 9-6 (60%), but Bittoun Kouzmine won 55.3% of games vs Yilmaz 54.5%.
- Surface edge: Bittoun Kouzmine career hard win% 57% (224-169), Yilmaz 45.6% (31-37) with 0 clay wins.
- Recent form quality: Bittoun Kouzmine's last 5: 3-2 with wins over Demin (674), Reyniak, Turker (796); Yilmaz's last 5: 3-2 with loss to Ozdemir (unranked) and win over Strode (unranked).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonConstantin Bittoun KouzmineEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H dominance and both players' recent match lengths trending under 21.5 games suggest a relatively quick match.
- H2H: Both matches finished with 16 and 13 total games, well under 21.5.
- Last 15 average games per match: Bittoun Kouzmine 20.9 (313 games/15 matches), Yilmaz 21.3 (319/15).
- Bittoun Kouzmine's last 5 matches: 20, 29, 21, 28, 25 games — only one exceeded 21.5 in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend and both players' recent set 1 game totals lean toward a relatively short opening set.
- H2H: Set 1 scores were 6-3 and 6-4, both under 9.5 games.
- Bittoun Kouzmine last 15: average set 1 games 9.3, with 8 of 15 sets under 9.5.
- Yilmaz last 15: average set 1 games 9.5, with 7 of 15 sets under 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bittoun Kouzmine's H2H dominance and Yilmaz's struggles against him suggest a comfortable game margin, though confidence is tempered by Yilmaz's recent form.
- H2H: Bittoun Kouzmine won by 7 and 5 games, covering -3.5 both times.
- Last 15 average game differential: Bittoun Kouzmine +0.8 games per match, but against Yilmaz's level, margin likely larger.
- Yilmaz lost to Bittoun Kouzmine 6-3 6-1 recently, a 8-game differential.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostConstantin Bittoun Kouzmine -3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Bittoun Kouzmine's superior first-serve effectiveness and H2H pattern of taking early leads support a high probability of winning set 1.
- H2H: Bittoun Kouzmine won first set 6-3 in both meetings.
- Last 15 first-serve points won: Bittoun Kouzmine 67.7% vs Yilmaz 63.1%.
- Bittoun Kouzmine career first-set win conversion 87%, Yilmaz 87% as well, but Bittoun Kouzmine's serve/return edge in recent window is stronger.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostConstantin Bittoun KouzmineEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Bittoun Kouzmine's H2H straight-set dominance and Yilmaz's struggles against higher-ranked opponents make a 2-0 outcome likely.
- H2H: Both wins were straight sets (6-3 6-1 and 6-4 6-3).
- Bittoun Kouzmine last 15: 7 of 9 wins in straight sets.
- Yilmaz last 15: 6 of 9 wins in straight sets, but against weaker opposition.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostConstantin Bittoun Kouzmine 2-0Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H lack of tiebreaks and Bittoun Kouzmine's low tiebreak frequency suggest a tiebreak is unlikely.
- H2H: No tiebreaks in 2 matches.
- Bittoun Kouzmine last 15: 2 tiebreaks in 15 matches (13.3% of matches).
- Yilmaz last 15: 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches (26.7% of matches).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace counts, and their combined average in recent matches strongly supports under 5.5 total aces.
- Bittoun Kouzmine last 15: 1.6 aces per match, Yilmaz: 1.0 aces per match.
- H2H: Bittoun Kouzmine 7 aces in 2 matches (3.5 per match), Yilmaz aces not tracked but likely low.
- Combined average aces per match: 2.6, well under 5.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have elevated double-fault rates, and their combined average in the last 15 matches exceeds 7.5, though H2H sample is slightly lower.
- Bittoun Kouzmine last 15: 3.7 double faults per match, Yilmaz: 4.5 per match.
- Combined average: 8.2 double faults per match.
- H2H: Bittoun Kouzmine 6 double faults in 2 matches (3.0 per match), Yilmaz 7 (3.5 per match) — combined 6.5, but small sample.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W6-3 6-1Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine#508vKerem Yilmaz—Jun 26, 2026

W6-4 6-3Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine#508vKerem Yilmaz—Sep 25, 2025

2 total meetings

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

9W 6L

6-4 6-3#335Matteo Martineau

2-6 7-6(8) 6-2#369Ivan Marrero Curbelo

7-5 6-3#674Yaroslav Demin

6-3 3-6 6-4—Matias Reyniak

2-6 6-4 6-1#796Mert Naci Turker

7-5 6-4—Anmar Faleh Alhogbani

6-3 6-3—Udit Kamboj

6-0 6-0—Renato Kurmanaev

6-4 1-6 7-6(1)#815Keshav Chopra

6-3 6-1—Kerem Yilmaz

6-3 6-1—Birtan Duran

6-4 6-1—Bogdan Seleznev

6-2 6-1—Felix Roussel

6-4 6-3#554Guillaume Dalmasso

3-6 6-1 6-4#560Alec Beckley

Kerem Yilmaz

9W 6L

3-6 6-4 7-6(5)—S Mert Ozdemir

7-6(2) 6-4—Elijah Strode

6-3 6-1#508Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-1 2-0 ret.—Matas Vasiliauskas

6-2 6-2—Fumin Jiang

6-4 6-1#815Keshav Chopra

7-6(4) 6-1—Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar

6-4 6-1—Felix Roussel

6-4 2-6 6-1—Theo Herrmann

3-6 7-5 6-4#746Adhithya Ganesan

6-1 6-4#851Alexander Zgirovsky

6-7(5) 6-3 1-1 ret.#373Anton Matusevich

6-4 7-6(7)—Muhammad Shoaib

5-7 6-3 6-4—Ivan Iutkin

6-3 6-3—Yassine Smiej

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CKConstantin Bittoun KouzmineKouzmine

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Kerem YilmazYilmazKY

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine carries the stronger recent form — Kerem Yilmaz's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In63.2%+5.6pp68.8%

1st Serve Won67.7%+4.6pp63.1%

2nd Serve Won48.4%+0.8pp47.6%

Aces / Match1.6+0.61.0

Double Faults / Match3.70.8 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won44.7%+0.8pp45.5%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted46.8%—47.3%

Break Pts Saved61.0%+4.8pp56.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.5%—51.9%

Serve · 4–1

63.2%1st Serve In+5.6pp68.8%

67.7%1st Serve Won+4.6pp63.1%

48.4%2nd Serve Won+0.8pp47.6%

1.6Aces / Match+0.61.0

3.7Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

44.7%Return Pts Won+0.8pp45.5%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

46.8%Break Pts Converted—47.3%

61.0%Break Pts Saved+4.8pp56.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.5%Total Pts Won—51.9%

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Kerem Yilmaz

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine 2-0

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Kerem Yilmaz

Stat Battle