United StatesATP WashingtonFinished

Predictions graded

Trevor Svajda #435United States2Elias Ymer #197Sweden0

Sets 6-0 · 7-6Sat 25 Jul 2026, 19:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–443%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElias Ymer · 238 places

Trevor Svajda

United States

Career-high No. 358 came on 2026-02-23. Public profile sources list hard as his preferred surface, and his 2026 trajectory is still upward rather than a decline story.

Current ranking: #435
Peak ranking: #358 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Elias Ymer

Sweden

Career-high No. 105 came on 2018-06-11. Public profile sources still tag indoor hard as his best surface, and he is competing well below that 2018 peak rather than on a fresh protected-ranking comeback.

Current ranking: #197
Peak ranking: #105 · 2018
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Indoor hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Jul 2026, 15:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Elias Ymer holds a clear edge in hard-court experience and recent form, making him the favorite, but Trevor Svajda’s home wild card status and recent Dallas title run should keep the match close.

Expect a competitive contest with over 21.5 total games and Svajda covering a +3.5 game handicap as the most reliable betting angles.

Context

Svajda's last 15 hard-court record is 3-6 (33.3%), with 47.3% games won and 48.6% total points won.
- He won the M25 Dallas title on July 12, beating opponents ranked outside the top 500.
- His first-serve points won on hard courts in the last 15 is only 66.7%, and return points won is 37.2%.
Ymer's last 15 matches: 10 on grass, 5 on clay, 0 on hard courts.
- His last hard-court match was in January 2026, per recent form data.
- He did compete at the Lincoln Challenger on July 15, but that match is not in the last 15 stats window.
Svajda's last 15 indoor hard record: 5-1, sets won 71.4%, first-serve points won 79%.
- His last 15 outdoor hard record: 3-6, sets won 35%, first-serve points won 66.7%.
- The Washington tournament is played on outdoor hard courts.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Ymer's superior hard-court experience and recent competitive reps on U.S. hard courts give him an edge over Svajda, whose recent hard-court form is poor (3-6).
- Svajda's last 15 hard-court record is 3-6 (33.3%), with 47.3% games won and 48.6% total points won.
- Ymer's overall last 15 record is 8-7 (53.3%), with 49.3% total points won, and he has recent hard-court competitive reps per intel.
- Ymer has a career hard-court win percentage of 54.3% and 99 wins, while Svajda has 49 hard-court wins and a 62% overall career win rate but at lower levels.
- Svajda's last 15 first-serve points won on hard is 66.7%, while Ymer's overall last 15 first-serve points won is 72%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostElias YmerEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Both players' recent match data points to competitive sets, making over 21.5 games likely in a Bo3 format.
- Svajda's last 15 hard-court matches average 23.0 games per match (207 games in 9 matches).
- Ymer's overall last 15 matches average 21.8 games per match (327 games in 15 matches).
- Both players have similar games-won percentages around 48-49% in recent windows, suggesting close sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Svajda is expected to keep the match close, making +3.5 games a solid cover based on recent competitive data.
- Svajda's last 15 hard-court games won percentage is 47.3%, Ymer's overall last 15 is 48.9%.
- In Svajda's 9 hard-court matches, the average game differential is -1.2 games per match.
- Ymer's recent matches have been close, with many decided by narrow margins.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTrevor Svajda +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
The first set is likely to be tight given both players' competitive recent numbers and the potential for a tiebreak.
- Svajda's last 15 hard-court matches show an average of 11.5 games per set (207 games in 18 sets).
- Ymer's overall last 15 matches average 10.2 games per set (327 games in 32 sets).
- Both players have tiebreak experience: Svajda 54% career tiebreak win, Ymer 48%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Consistent with the overall match competitiveness, the second set is also expected to be tight.
- Svajda's last 15 hard-court sets average 11.5 games, and Ymer's overall last 15 sets average 10.2 games.
- In Bo3 matches, second sets often remain competitive if the first set is close.
- No fitness flags suggest a drop-off in the second set for either player.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Ymer's stronger overall recent form and experience should help him start well, though Svajda's high career first-set conversion adds some uncertainty.
- Svajda's first-set win conversion career is 92%, but his last 15 hard-court sets won is only 35%.
- Ymer's career first-set win conversion is 83%, and he has won 57.1% of sets on grass in last 15, but no hard-court specific last 15 data.
- Ymer's overall last 15 break-point save rate is 51.4%, while Svajda's is 63.7% on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostElias YmerEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown a tendency for three-set matches in recent windows, making over 2.5 sets a reasonable outcome.
- Svajda's last 15 hard-court matches: 7 sets won in 9 matches, indicating many three-set matches.
- Ymer's overall last 15 matches: 16 sets won in 15 matches, with a 50% sets-won rate.
- Svajda's deciding-set win percentage is 55% career, Ymer's is 54%.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given the expected competitiveness and both players' tiebreak history, at least one tiebreak is likely.
- Svajda's career tiebreak win percentage is 54%, with several tiebreaks in recent matches (e.g., vs Lajal, Shimizu).
- Ymer's career tiebreak win percentage is 48%, with recent tiebreaks vs Basilashvili, Searle, Visker.
- Both players have been involved in tiebreaks in about 30-40% of their recent sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent ace averages just exceed the line, though low confidence due to variability in ace counts.
- Svajda averages 3.8 aces per match on hard in last 15, Ymer averages 4.8 overall in last 15.
- Combined average aces per match: 8.6, slightly above the 8.5 line.
- Ymer's career ace count is 3180 in 830 matches (3.8 per match), but recent form shows higher ace rates.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent double fault averages slightly exceed the line, but low confidence due to small margins.
- Svajda averages 2.4 double faults per match on hard in last 15, Ymer averages 3.4 overall in last 15.
- Combined average double faults: 5.8, just over the 5.5 line.
- Ymer's career double fault rate is 2.8 per match, but recent form is higher.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Trevor Svajda

8W 7L

5-7 7-6(5) 6-3#150Mark Lajal

6-3 6-2#572Aidan Kim

6-4 6-4#630Evan Zhu

7-6(7) 6-1#741Matthew Forbes

6-1 2-6 6-4#700Andreja Petrovic

6-1 4-6 7-5—Maximus Dussault

6-4 7-6(2)#383Yuta Shimizu

6-3 7-6(2)#451Jie Cui

7-6(1) 6-4#233Edas Butvilas

6-2 7-5#174Colton Smith

6-4 6-2#140Mackenzie Mcdonald

4-6 7-6(2) 6-3#164Luca Nardi

7-6(3) 7-5#45Ethan Quinn

6-3 6-4#244Liam Draxl

6-2 6-2#888Micah Braswell

Elias Ymer

8W 7L

6-4 6-1#163Timofey Skatov

2-6 6-3 7-6(8)#130Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#215Henry Searle

6-4 6-3#29Ugo Humbert

6-4 7-6(3)#439Niels Visker

6-4 6-4—Mac Visser

6-3 6-3#97Sho Shimabukuro

7-6(7) 6-3#126Christopher O'Connell

7-6(2) 6-2#333Hamish Stewart

7-5 6-3#373Anton Matusevich

6-2 7-6(5)#199Genaro Alberto Olivieri

7-6(4) 6-2#623Saba Purtseladze

6-2 7-5#36Arthur Fery

6-3 7-5#105Martin Damm

6-4 3-6 6-2#767Daniel Jade

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TSTrevor SvajdaSvajda

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Elias YmerYmerEY

Trevor Svajda carries the stronger recent form — Elias Ymer's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In55.3%+5.4pp60.7%

1st Serve Won71.5%—72.0%

2nd Serve Won49.9%+2.1pp47.8%

Aces / Match4.4+0.44.8

Double Faults / Match2.21.2 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.8%+2.8pp36.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted41.3%+5.2pp36.1%

Break Pts Saved63.7%+12.3pp51.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.5%+1.2pp49.3%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

55.3%1st Serve In+5.4pp60.7%

71.5%1st Serve Won—72.0%

49.9%2nd Serve Won+2.1pp47.8%

4.4Aces / Match+0.44.8

2.2Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

38.8%Return Pts Won+2.8pp36.0%

Pressure · 2–0

41.3%Break Pts Converted+5.2pp36.1%

63.7%Break Pts Saved+12.3pp51.4%

Points · 1–0

50.5%Total Pts Won+1.2pp49.3%

Trevor Svajda #435United States2Elias Ymer #197Sweden0

Player Profiles

Trevor Svajda

Elias Ymer

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Trevor Svajda +3.5

Over 21.5

Elias Ymer

Elias Ymer

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Trevor Svajda 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Elias Ymer 2-0 @ 3.20

Trevor Svajda

Elias Ymer

Stat Battle