United StatesATP WashingtonFinished

Predictions graded

Mackenzie Mcdonald #140United States2Edas Butvilas #233Lithuania1

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 6-4Sat 25 Jul 2026, 19:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions2–529%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMackenzie McDonald · 93 places

Mackenzie McDonald

United States

ATP lists hard court as McDonald’s preferred surface and notes a career-high ranking of No. 37 in October 2023. His 2019 hamstring surgery is background context rather than a current availability issue in the requested July 25, 2026 searches.

Current ranking: #140
Peak ranking: #37
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

External profile data lists Butvilas as a 22-year-old Lithuanian with a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025 and hard court as his preferred surface. ATP’s official bio page currently has no written bio for him, so recent match activity is the clearest current context.

Current ranking: #233
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Jul 2026, 15:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Mackenzie McDonald's hard-court pedigree and strong serve give him a clear edge over Edas Butvilas, who has struggled on the surface and arrives in poor form.

Expect a competitive match with a likely straight-sets win for McDonald, and the best betting value is on over 9.5 games in the first set.

Context

McDonald's career hard-court record: 235 wins, 55.3% win rate.
- Butvilas' last 15 hard-court stats (3 matches): 1-2 record, 47.1% games won, 48.3% total points won.
- McDonald's last 15 overall first-serve points won: 66.4%, break points saved: 61.8%.
- Butvilas' hard-court return points won in last 3 matches: 32.5%.
Butvilas' last 6 matches: 1 win, 5 losses.
- Losses include defeats to Clement Tabur (ranked 161), Marc-Andrea Huesler (297), and Frederico Ferreira Silva (235).
- In his last 15 overall, Butvilas has a 40% win rate (6-9) and 49.9% games won.
- McDonald's recent form is also mixed (5-10 in last 15), but his losses came against higher-ranked opponents on grass and clay.
McDonald's career first-set win conversion: 81%.
- Butvilas lost the first set in 4 of his last 6 matches.
- McDonald's last 15 overall first-serve points won: 66.4%, helping him hold serve early.
- Butvilas' hard-court first-serve points won drops to 69.9% (3-match sample).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Mackenzie Mcdonald

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

McDonald's superior hard-court pedigree and serve stats give him a clear edge, though the odds slightly overprice his win probability.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Mackenzie Mcdonald

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

McDonald's career first-set win conversion is 81%, and Butvilas has lost the first set in 4 of his last 6 matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
McDonald's superior hard-court pedigree and current serve stats give him a clear edge over Butvilas, who has struggled on hard courts recently.
- McDonald has a strong hard-court career record (235 wins, 55.3% win rate) and reached the 2021 Washington final.
- Butvilas' last 15 hard-court stats show only 1 win in 3 matches, with a 47.1% games won and 48.3% total points won.
- McDonald's overall last 15 stats include 66.4% first-serve points won and 61.8% break points saved, indicating solid serve performance.
- Butvilas' recent form is poor: 6-9 in last 15 overall, with losses in 5 of his last 6 matches across surfaces.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMackenzie McdonaldEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and the competitive nature of qualifying suggest a match exceeding 21.5 games.
- McDonald's last 15 matches average 23.3 games per match (350 total games / 15 matches).
- Butvilas' last 15 matches average 23.0 games per match (345 total games / 15 matches).
- Both players have competitive recent matches: McDonald's last 5 matches averaged 22.8 games, Butvilas' last 5 averaged 22.4 games.
- Hard-court matches in Washington qualifying often feature tight sets; McDonald's 2021 run included several three-setters.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players tend to play competitive first sets, and McDonald's serve should keep the set close, pushing it over 9.5 games.
- McDonald's last 15 matches: 9 of 15 first sets had 10+ games.
- Butvilas' last 15 matches: 8 of 15 first sets had 10+ games.
- Butvilas' hard-court first sets in last 3 matches: 7-6, 6-4, 6-3 (two overs).
- McDonald's serve stats (66.4% first-serve points won) suggest he can hold serve, extending the set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
McDonald's strong first-set record and Butvilas' recent slow starts make McDonald the likely set 1 winner.
- McDonald's career first-set win conversion is 81%, showing he starts matches strongly.
- Butvilas' last 15 overall first-serve points won is 72.9%, but his hard-court sample (3 matches) shows only 69.9%.
- McDonald's last 15 overall return points won is 35.1%, slightly below Butvilas' 36.3%, but on hard courts Butvilas' return drops to 32.5%.
- Butvilas has lost the first set in 4 of his last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMackenzie McdonaldEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average just over 2 double faults per match, making under 4.5 a reasonable expectation.
- McDonald averages 2.2 double faults per match in last 15 overall.
- Butvilas averages 2.1 double faults per match in last 15 overall.
- Combined average: 4.3 double faults per match.
- Butvilas' hard-court double fault rate is 2.7 per match (3 matches), slightly higher but small sample.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 4.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have decent ace counts, and Butvilas' hard-court ace rate pushes the combined projection over 10.5.
- McDonald averages 5.0 aces per match in last 15 overall, but 7.0 on grass; hard-court ace data not available in recent window.
- Butvilas averages 6.0 aces per match in last 15 overall, with 7.3 on hard courts (3 matches).
- Combined average aces per match: 11.0 (5.0 + 6.0).
- Butvilas' height (191 cm) and first-serve points won (72.9%) indicate ace potential.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 10.5Estimated chance52%

Mackenzie Mcdonald

5W 10L

6-1 6-3#99Adam Walton

3-6 6-1 6-4 6-4#113Patrick Kypson

6-3 6-4 6-4#126Christopher O'Connell

6-4 6-4#177Roberto Carballes Baena

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#709Felipe Meligeni Alves

7-6(3) 7-5#116Shintaro Mochizuki

3-6 6-3 6-2#131Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-6(7) 7-5#439Niels Visker

6-3 7-6(5)#96Rinky Hijikata

6-3 7-6(3)#131Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6-4 7-6(7)#156Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

7-5 6-4#59Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-4 6-2#186Lloyd Harris

6-1 7-6(7)#236Chun Hsin Tseng

6-2 6-2#323Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Edas Butvilas

6W 9L

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#161Clement Tabur

6-4 6-3#297Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-3 6-3#235Frederico Ferreira Silva

3-6 7-5 6-3#151Moez Echargui

3-6 6-4 6-4#615Cruz Hewitt

6-3 6-4#248Andre Ilagan

7-6(1) 6-4#435Trevor Svajda

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#634Aidan Mayo

6-4 6-3#11Alexander Bublik

6-3 6-1#77Lorenzo Sonego

7-5 7-6(4)#82James Duckworth

6-4 6-1#133Alexandre Muller

6-4 7-6(5)#217Kimmer Coppejans

6-4 7-5#284Kilian Feldbausch

3-6 6-4 6-4#582Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MMMackenzie McdonaldMcdonald

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Edas ButvilasButvilasEB

Edas Butvilas carries the stronger recent form — Mackenzie Mcdonald's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In66.5%+6.7pp59.8%

1st Serve Won66.4%+6.5pp72.9%

2nd Serve Won50.4%—50.9%

Aces / Match5.0+1.06.0

Double Faults / Match2.2—2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.1%+1.2pp36.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted31.2%+4.0pp27.2%

Break Pts Saved61.8%+2.6pp59.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.1%+1.9pp50.0%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

66.5%1st Serve In+6.7pp59.8%

66.4%1st Serve Won+6.5pp72.9%

50.4%2nd Serve Won—50.9%

5.0Aces / Match+1.06.0

2.2Double Faults / Match—2.1

Return · 0–1

35.1%Return Pts Won+1.2pp36.3%

Pressure · 2–0

31.2%Break Pts Converted+4.0pp27.2%

61.8%Break Pts Saved+2.6pp59.2%

Points · 0–1

48.1%Total Pts Won+1.9pp50.0%