Luka Pavlovic vs Keegan Smith: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Smith's perfect recent hard-court form and superior serve metrics give him a clear edge over Pavlovic, whose overall recent form is weaker.
- Keegan Smith has a 100% record (3-0) on hard courts in the last 15 matches, winning 85.7% of sets and 56.3% of games.
- Luka Pavlovic has a 75% record (3-1) on hard courts in the last 15 matches, but his overall last-15 record is only 53.3%.
- Smith's first-serve percentage on hard courts in the last 15 is 77.9%, and he wins 80.6% of first-serve points, compared to Pavlovic's 59.4% first-serve in and 78.9% first-serve points won.
- Smith's break-point save rate on hard courts in the last 15 is 100% (4/4), while Pavlovic's is 81% (17/21).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKeegan SmithEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing solid serving and break-point saving on hard courts, a close match with at least 22 games is likely.
- In Pavlovic's four recent hard-court matches, total games played were 15, 23, 24, and 21, averaging 20.75 games.
- Smith's three recent hard-court matches had total games of 39, 18, and 23, averaging 26.7 games.
- Both players have strong hold percentages on hard courts: Pavlovic saves 81% of break points, Smith saves 100% (small sample).
- Pavlovic's matches average 102.8 minutes overall, and Smith's hard-court matches average 111.7 minutes, indicating competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pavlovic's competitive hard-court performances and Smith's occasional close matches suggest Pavlovic will cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Pavlovic's recent hard-court losses were by margins of 5 games (to Erel) and 2 games (to Droguet on clay), while his wins were by 9, 3, and 6 games.
- Smith's recent hard-court wins were by 1 game (39 total games), 6 games, and 3 games, showing he doesn't always win by large margins.
- Pavlovic's games-won percentage on hard courts in the last 15 is 57.8%, indicating he is competitive even in losses.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLuka Pavlovic +3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Smith's dominant serving on hard courts and perfect first-set record in recent hard-court matches make him the favorite to take the opening set.
- Smith has won the first set in all three of his recent hard-court matches, while Pavlovic has won the first set in three of his four recent hard-court matches.
- Smith's first-serve points won on hard courts (80.6%) is higher than Pavlovic's (78.9%), and his first-serve percentage is much higher (77.9% vs 59.4%).
- Pavlovic's first-set win conversion rate over his career is 87%, but his recent hard-court first-set performance includes a loss to Yanki Erel (7-6, 6-2).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKeegan SmithEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Smith's exceptional double-fault avoidance (0.9 per match overall) makes it likely the combined total stays under 5.5.
- Smith averages only 1.3 double faults per match on hard courts in his last 15, and Pavlovic averages 4.3.
- Combined, their recent hard-court double-fault average is 5.6, but Smith's extremely low rate (0.9 overall in last 15) pulls the total down.
- In a best-of-three match, the total double faults are likely to be 5 or fewer, especially if Smith maintains his low rate.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong servers on hard courts, and their combined ace averages comfortably exceed 12.5, even in a two-set match.
- Pavlovic averages 8.3 aces per match on hard courts in his last 15, while Smith averages 7.0.
- Combined, their recent hard-court ace averages total 15.3 per match.
- Pavlovic's ace rate is boosted by his height (196 cm) and aggressive serving, while Smith's high first-serve percentage leads to many unreturned serves.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent hard-court matches, combined with solid serving, makes a tiebreak likely.
- Pavlovic has played a tiebreak in three of his four recent hard-court matches.
- Smith has played a tiebreak in two of his three recent hard-court matches.
- Both players have strong hold percentages on hard courts, with Pavlovic saving 81% of break points and Smith saving 100% (small sample).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Luka Pavlovic #278France2Keegan Smith #209United States0

Player Profiles

Luka Pavlovic

Keegan Smith

Quick Take

Context

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Keegan Smith

Keegan Smith

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Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

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Markets to Avoid

Keegan Smith 2-1 @ 4.00

Luka Pavlovic

Keegan Smith

Stat Battle