GermanyWTA HamburgFinished

Predictions graded

Mayar Sherif #55Egypt2Paula Badosa Gibert #93Spain1

Sets 7-6 · 6-7 · 6-4Fri 24 Jul 2026, 11:05 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions7–188%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMayar Sherif · 38 places

Mayar Sherif

Egypt

Former No. 31 with many of her best tour-level results coming on clay, including WTA titles in Parma and Iasi. Her recent trajectory is upward again, with WTA listing her back at No. 55 after July titles in Brescia, Contrexeville and Iasi.

Current ranking: #55
Peak ranking: #31 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Paula Badosa Gibert

Spain

Former No. 2 who returned to the Top 100 in July 2026 after the Bastad title and an Iasi final. WTA says injuries limited her 2025 schedule after Wimbledon, but her current trajectory is upward again.

Current ranking: #93
Peak ranking: #2 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jul 2026, 22:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Sherif's 14-match clay winning streak and fresh H2H retirement win over Badosa make her the clear favorite, with value on her moneyline at 2.30.

The over 21.5 total games is also attractive given both players' competitive recent matches, while Sherif 2-1 at 5.25 offers a high-upside longshot.

Context

Badosa retired at 6-4, 4-0 down in the Iasi final on 20 July with a right-thigh injury.
- She has played and won two Hamburg matches since, but the injury is only four days old entering this rematch.
- No public update confirms the thigh is fully healed; the short rest and clay surface could test it again.
Sherif is 14-0 on clay in her last 15 matches, winning 61.7% of games on the surface.
- She has won 51.8% of return points on clay in that window, breaking at a 50.3% rate.
- Her last five clay wins include the Iasi final over Badosa and a three-set battle against Waltert in Hamburg.
Sherif led 6-4, 4-0 before Badosa retired in the Iasi final on 20 July.
- This Hamburg quarterfinal is only four days later, with no reset time between matches.
- Sherif now leads the head-to-head 2-1, with both wins on clay.
Sherif flew straight from the Iasi final to Hamburg and played a 7-5, 6-7, 7-6 marathon against Waltert in her first match.
- She has played 15 matches since 12 June, with an average duration of 116 minutes on clay.
- No current injury or retirement signal, but the cumulative load is high for a player outside the top 70.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Sherif's dominant clay form (14-0 in last 15) and superior return stats give her a clear edge, while Badosa's recent thigh injury adds uncertainty.
- Sherif is 14-0 on clay in last 15 matches, with 61.7% games won on clay in that window.
- Badosa is 11-1 on clay in last 15, but her only loss was a retirement to Sherif four days ago.
- Sherif's return points won on clay in last 15 is 51.8% vs Badosa's 47.5%.
- H2H: Sherif leads 2-1, including a 6-4 4-0 ret. win on clay four days ago.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMayar SherifEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be tight given both players' form, with a high chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Sherif's last 15 clay matches: 9 of 14 first sets had 10+ games.
- Badosa's last 12 clay matches: 7 of 12 first sets had 10+ games.
- Both players have strong serve/return balance, leading to extended sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are in strong form and competitive on clay, suggesting a match that extends beyond 20 games, especially if it goes three sets.
- Sherif's last 15 clay matches averaged 21.4 games per match.
- Badosa's last 12 clay matches averaged 21.2 games per match.
- Both players have high hold/break dynamics: Sherif breaks at 50.3% on clay, Badosa at 38.4% but saves 58.5% of break points.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Sherif's fast starts and high return pressure on clay make her likely to take the opening set against Badosa's vulnerable serve.
- Sherif has won the first set in 13 of her last 15 matches overall.
- On clay in last 15, Sherif's first-serve points won is 59.3% and return points won is 51.8%.
- Badosa's first-serve percentage on clay in last 15 is only 56.2%, and she faces a strong returner.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMayar SherifEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server on clay, and the total aces are likely to stay low.
- Sherif averages 0.4 aces per match on clay in last 15.
- Badosa averages 3.4 aces per match on clay in last 15.
- Combined average is 3.8 aces per match, well under 5.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Badosa's high double-fault rate on clay (5.5 per match) makes it likely the total exceeds 7.5, especially in a competitive match.
- Sherif averages 1.6 double faults per match on clay in last 15.
- Badosa averages 5.5 double faults per match on clay in last 15.
- Combined average is 7.1, but Badosa's high rate and pressure situations could push it over.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2-1 (3 meetings)

W6-4 4-0 ret.Mayar Sherif#73vPaula Badosa Gibert#93Jul 20, 2026

L6-3 6-1Mayar Sherif#73vPaula Badosa Gibert#93Apr 4, 2023

W6-3 6-0Mayar Sherif#73vPaula Badosa Gibert#93Sep 9, 2013

3 total meetings

Mayar Sherif

14W 1L

6-2 6-3#104Elsa Jacquemot

5-7 6-4 7-6(3)#91Simona Waltert

6-4 4-0 ret.#93Paula Badosa Gibert

6-3 6-1#45Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-2 3-6 7-6(5)#79Yulia Putintseva

6-3 7-6(2)#101Kaitlin Quevedo

6-2 6-0#152Dalma Galfi

3-6 7-6(0) 7-5#128Jeline Vandromme

7-5 7-6(3)#112Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 6-3#350Alicia Herrero Linana

6-3 7-5#414Amandine Hesse

6-4 6-2#271Yasmine Kabbaj

6-2 6-2#475Heather Watson

6-4 6-3#90Xiyu Wang

6-3 6-3#186Elizara Yaneva

Paula Badosa Gibert

12W 3L

6-4 6-1#71Panna Udvardy

7-5 6-4#131Katarzyna Kawa

6-4 4-0 ret.#73Mayar Sherif

3-6 7-5 7-6(1)#134Tamara Zidansek

6-4 7-6(2)#71Panna Udvardy

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#236Alevtina Ibragimova

6-3 6-1#56Anhelina Kalinina

7-5 7-5#91Simona Waltert

6-1 6-2#79Yulia Putintseva

7-5 7-6(3)#175Varvara Lepchenko

6-3 6-2#96Emiliana Arango

6-3 6-2#130Marina Bassols Ribera

4-6 6-3 7-5#27Emma Navarro

6-1 6-3#7Linda Noskova

1-6 6-3 6-2#4Cori Gauff

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMayar SherifSherif

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Paula Badosa GibertGibertPG

Mayar Sherif carries the stronger recent form — Paula Badosa Gibert's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In76.7%+21.8pp54.9%

1st Serve Won59.0%+10.1pp69.1%

2nd Serve Won54.6%+6.3pp48.3%

Aces / Match0.5+3.23.7

Double Faults / Match1.74.1 fewer5.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won50.7%+5.5pp45.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted50.3%+13.0pp37.3%

Break Pts Saved43.3%+16.0pp59.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.2%+2.2pp52.0%

Serve · 3–2

76.7%1st Serve In+21.8pp54.9%

59.0%1st Serve Won+10.1pp69.1%

54.6%2nd Serve Won+6.3pp48.3%

0.5Aces / Match+3.23.7

1.7Double Faults / Match4.1 fewer5.8

Return · 1–0

50.7%Return Pts Won+5.5pp45.2%

Pressure · 1–1

50.3%Break Pts Converted+13.0pp37.3%

43.3%Break Pts Saved+16.0pp59.3%

Points · 1–0

54.2%Total Pts Won+2.2pp52.0%