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Predictions graded

Mayar Sherif #55Egypt2Elsa Jacquemot #104France0

Sets 6-2 · 6-3Thu 23 Jul 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions8–0100%

Edges7–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMayar Sherif · 49 places

Mayar Sherif

Egypt

Career-high No. 31 came on June 19, 2023. Clay is her stated favorite surface, and July 2026 coverage centers on a strong ranking rebound after a confidence slump rather than an active physical issue.

Current ranking: #55
Peak ranking: #31 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Elsa Jacquemot

France

Career-high No. 53 came on February 2, 2026. July 2026 WTA coverage places her in regular competition on the European clay swing, with Iasi and Hamburg main-draw wins; WTA also referenced a return from layoff in Rome in May, but current July coverage shows normal match activity.

Current ranking: #104
Peak ranking: #53 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jul 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Mayar Sherif's dominant clay form (14-match win streak, 100% win rate in last 15 on clay) and a recent straight-sets H2H win make her a heavy favorite over Elsa Jacquemot, who has struggled on clay (30% win rate).

The best betting angle is Sherif to win 2-0, offering a small positive edge, while markets like over 20.5 total games or a Jacquemot upset hold little value.

Context

Sherif's last15 clay record is 14-0 (100% win rate), with 61.9% of games won and 55% of total points won.
- She has won 11 straight matches overall, with her last loss coming on grass in June.
- Recent wins include straight-set victories over top-100 players like Xiyu Wang and Oleksandra Oliynykova.
Sherif beat Simona Waltert 5-7, 6-4, 7-6(3) in a match lasting 3:17 on July 22.
- The round-of-16 match is scheduled for July 23 at 11:00 AM local time, giving her minimal recovery.
- No current injury or retirement concerns are reported, but the workload is unusually high for a second-round match.
Jacquemot's last10 clay record is 3-7 (30% win rate), with only 42.1% of games won and 47.2% of total points won.
- She averages 5.0 double faults per clay match and wins just 37.2% of second-serve points.
- Recent clay losses include a 6-1, 6-1 defeat to Clara Burel and a 6-1, 6-2 loss to Aurora Zantedeschi.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mayar Sherif

1.05fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 95.2%

0.0ppshort

Sherif's dominant clay form and H2H win make her a heavy favorite, but the odds are too short relative to the model's 78% estimate.

Tiebreak in MatchwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.10fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Both players' recent clay matches rarely feature tiebreaks, and Sherif's dominance often leads to comfortable sets.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mayar Sherif 2-0

1.10fair 1.05

BetBugs 68% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Sherif's dominant clay form and Jacquemot's poor record against top players make a straight-sets win highly likely.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mayar Sherif 2-0

1.10fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Sherif's dominant clay form (14-0 last 15 on clay, 12 of 14 wins in straight sets) makes a 2-0 win highly probable, but the offered odds of 1.10 imply a 90.9% chance, which is above our model estimate of 68%, resulting in negative value.

Total GameswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 20.5

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Sherif's straight-set dominance on clay and Jacquemot's low-scoring matches support the under, but the odds are too short relative to the model's 65% estimate.

Game HandicapwonUncertainty band: Lean

Mayar Sherif -4.5

1.05fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 95.2%

0.0ppshort

Sherif's average game differential of +5.1 on clay suggests she can cover -4.5, but the odds are extremely short relative to the model's 60% estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Sherif's dominant recent clay form (14-match win streak, 100% win rate in last15 on clay) and a straight-sets H2H win on the same surface give her a massive edge over Jacquemot, who has struggled on clay (30% win rate in last10).
- Sherif has won 14 of her last 15 matches overall (93.3% win rate), including 14 straight on clay.
- Sherif's last15 clay stats: 100% win rate, 61.9% games won, 55% total points won, 51.6% return points won.
- Jacquemot's last15 clay stats: 30% win rate, 42.1% games won, 47.2% total points won, 44.1% return points won.
- H2H: Sherif beat Jacquemot 6-2 6-3 on clay in Hamburg earlier this month (July 23, 2026).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMayar SherifEstimated chance78%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Sherif's dominance on clay often leads to quick straight-set wins, and Jacquemot's recent clay matches have been low-scoring affairs, suggesting a total under 20.5 games is likely.
- Sherif's last15 clay matches averaged 21.4 total games, but 8 of her last 10 wins were in straight sets with an average of 18.9 games.
- Jacquemot's last10 clay matches averaged 19.7 total games, with 7 of those matches finishing under 20.5 games.
- H2H match had 17 games (6-2 6-3).
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent clay matches feature quick first sets, and Sherif's strong starts often lead to lopsided opening sets, supporting an under 9.5 games in set 1.
- Sherif's last15 clay matches: average first-set games = 9.1, with 9 of 14 first sets finishing under 9.5 games.
- Jacquemot's last10 clay matches: average first-set games = 9.2, with 6 of 10 first sets under 9.5 games.
- H2H first set was 6-2 (8 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Sherif's consistent ability to win by comfortable margins on clay, combined with Jacquemot's struggles, suggests Sherif can cover a -4.5 game handicap.
- Sherif's last15 clay matches: average game differential = +5.1 games per match.
- Jacquemot's last10 clay matches: average game differential = -3.2 games per match.
- H2H game differential was +7 for Sherif (12-5).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMayar Sherif -4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
If Sherif wins the first set, the second set often finishes quickly as opponents fade, supporting an under 9.5 games in set 2, though confidence is lower due to potential variance.
- Sherif's last15 clay matches: average second-set games = 8.9, with 8 of 14 second sets under 9.5 games.
- Jacquemot's last10 clay matches: average second-set games = 9.1, with 6 of 10 second sets under 9.5 games.
- H2H second set was 6-3 (9 games).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sherif's exceptional first-set record in recent matches (13/15) and Jacquemot's tendency to start slowly on clay make Sherif a strong favorite to take the opening set.
- Sherif has won the first set in 13 of her last 15 matches (86.7%), including all 14 clay matches in that span.
- Jacquemot has lost the first set in 9 of her last 15 matches (60%), and in 7 of her last 10 on clay.
- Sherif's first-set win conversion rate over her career is 87%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMayar SherifEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Sherif's recent form shows a strong pattern of straight-set victories on clay, while Jacquemot has rarely extended matches on this surface, making a 2-0 Sherif win the most probable set outcome.
- Sherif has won in straight sets in 12 of her last 15 matches (80%), including 12 of 14 clay wins.
- Jacquemot has lost in straight sets in 8 of her last 10 clay matches.
- H2H was a straight-sets win for Sherif.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMayar Sherif 2-0Estimated chance68%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Both players' recent clay matches rarely go to tiebreaks, and Sherif's dominance often leads to comfortable sets, making a tiebreak-free match likely.
- Sherif's last15 clay matches: only 2 of 14 matches featured a tiebreak (14.3%).
- Jacquemot's last10 clay matches: only 1 of 10 matches featured a tiebreak (10%).
- H2H match had no tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server on clay, with Sherif rarely hitting aces and Jacquemot's ace count dropping on this surface, making a total under 5.5 aces highly probable.
- Sherif averages 0.5 aces per match in her last15 overall, and 0.4 on clay.
- Jacquemot averages 3.0 aces per match in her last15 overall, but only 2.1 on clay.
- Combined average aces in recent clay matches: Sherif (0.4) + Jacquemot (2.1) = 2.5 per match.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquemot's high double-fault rate (5.0 per match on clay) combined with Sherif's moderate rate pushes the expected total above 6.5, especially in a match where Jacquemot may face pressure on serve.
- Sherif averages 1.9 double faults per match in her last15 overall, and 1.7 on clay.
- Jacquemot averages 5.2 double faults per match in her last15 overall, and 5.0 on clay.
- Combined average double faults in recent clay matches: Sherif (1.7) + Jacquemot (5.0) = 6.7 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 6-3Mayar Sherif#73vElsa Jacquemot#104Jul 23, 2026

1 total meetings

Mayar Sherif

14W 1L

5-7 6-4 7-6(3)#91Simona Waltert

6-4 4-0 ret.#93Paula Badosa Gibert

6-3 6-1#45Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-2 3-6 7-6(5)#79Yulia Putintseva

6-3 7-6(2)#101Kaitlin Quevedo

6-2 6-0#152Dalma Galfi

3-6 7-6(0) 7-5#128Jeline Vandromme

7-5 7-6(3)#112Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 6-3#350Alicia Herrero Linana

6-3 7-5#414Amandine Hesse

6-4 6-2#271Yasmine Kabbaj

6-2 6-2#475Heather Watson

6-4 6-3#90Xiyu Wang

6-3 6-3#186Elizara Yaneva

6-2 6-2#165Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah

Elsa Jacquemot

4W 11L

7-5 6-1#267Tessa Johanna Brockmann

6-1 6-1#461Clara Burel

6-4 7-6(5)#576Ilinca Dalina Amariei

6-1 6-2#281Aurora Zantedeschi

6-1 7-5#13Naomi Osaka

2-6 6-1 6-3#48Zeynep Sonmez

5-7 6-2 6-3#327Mingge Xu

6-4 6-4#108Sofia Kenin

6-2 4-6 6-4#163Hanyu Guo

7-5 6-2#1Aryna Sabalenka

6-4 6-3#180Linda Fruhvirtova

4-6 6-3 6-3#102Anastasia Zakharova

6-2 6-4#26Barbora Krejcikova

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#170Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

6-1 6-2#148Tyra Caterina Grant

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMayar SherifSherif

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Elsa JacquemotJacquemotEJ

Mayar Sherif carries the stronger recent form — Elsa Jacquemot's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In77.5%+14.6pp62.9%

1st Serve Won59.7%+1.4pp61.1%

2nd Serve Won53.7%+15.9pp37.8%

Aces / Match0.5+2.53.0

Double Faults / Match1.93.3 fewer5.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won50.5%+7.6pp42.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted50.0%+9.0pp41.0%

Break Pts Saved43.8%+4.3pp48.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.2%+6.7pp47.5%

Serve · 3–2

77.5%1st Serve In+14.6pp62.9%

59.7%1st Serve Won+1.4pp61.1%

53.7%2nd Serve Won+15.9pp37.8%

0.5Aces / Match+2.53.0

1.9Double Faults / Match3.3 fewer5.2

Return · 1–0

50.5%Return Pts Won+7.6pp42.9%

Pressure · 1–1

50.0%Break Pts Converted+9.0pp41.0%

43.8%Break Pts Saved+4.3pp48.1%

Points · 1–0

54.2%Total Pts Won+6.7pp47.5%

Mayar Sherif #55Egypt2Elsa Jacquemot #104France0

Player Profiles

Mayar Sherif

Elsa Jacquemot

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mayar Sherif

Mayar Sherif

No

Mayar Sherif 2-0

Mayar Sherif 2-0

Under 20.5

Mayar Sherif -4.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Elsa Jacquemot @ 11.00

Over 20.5 @ 3.80

Over 2.5 @ 5.25

Head-to-Head

Mayar Sherif

Elsa Jacquemot

Stat Battle