ItalyWTA PalermoFinished

Predictions graded

Francesca Jones #113United Kingdom2Miriam Bianca Bulgaru #246Romania0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Thu 23 Jul 2026, 17:55 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions8–0100%

Edges7–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesca Jones · 133 places

Francesca Jones

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 65 on 2026-02-09. British right-hander with WTA 125 titles in Rome in 2026 and Palermo in 2025.

Current ranking: #113
Peak ranking: #65 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Romania

Reached a career-high No. 168 on 2025-09-08. ITF lists hard as her preferred surface, and its June 15, 2026 snapshot showed a difficult 2026 start.

Current ranking: #246
Peak ranking: #168 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jul 2026, 15:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Francesca Jones is a heavy favorite against out-of-form Miriam Bianca Bulgaru on clay.

Jones' superior recent results, head-to-head dominance, and strong first-set record make a straight-sets win likely. The best value lies in under 9.5 games in the first set, given both players' quick-set trends.

Context

Jones is 8-3 on clay in her last 11 matches (72.7% win rate).
- She won the 2026 Rome WTA 125 on clay and is the 2025 Palermo champion.
- Her last five clay matches are all wins, with four in straight sets.
Bulgaru's clay record in the last 15 is 3-12 (20% win rate).
- She has lost 10 of those 15 matches in straight sets.
- She saves only 45.7% of break points and wins just 39.8% of second-serve points on clay.
Jones won 7-5 6-1 in May 2025 and 6-4 7-6(3) in November 2024, both on clay.
- In H2H, Jones won 70% of first-serve points and 50% of break points.
- Bulgaru converted only 17% of break points across the two matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Francesca Jones

1.10fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Jones dominates on clay with superior recent form, H2H, and surface-specific stats, making her a strong favorite.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Francesca Jones

1.15fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Jones' dominant first-set record and Bulgaru's poor start tendency on clay make Jones the clear favorite for set 1.

Total GameswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 19.5

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

−4.5ppshort

Recent clay matches for both players trend toward lower game totals, especially in Jones' wins, suggesting under 19.5 games.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Francesca Jones 2-0

1.29fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Jones' straight-set H2H history and Bulgaru's frequent straight-set losses on clay support a 2-0 outcome.

Game HandicapwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Francesca Jones -5.5

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

−11.7ppshort

Jones' dominant clay wins and Bulgaru's heavy losses support a -5.5 game handicap for Jones.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Jones dominates on clay with superior recent form, H2H, and surface-specific stats, making her a strong favorite.
- Jones is 8-3 on clay in last 15 matches (72.7% win rate) vs Bulgaru's 3-12 (20%).
- Jones won both H2H meetings on clay (2025, 2024) in straight sets.
- Jones holds a 57.7% games-won rate on clay in last 15; Bulgaru only 43.2%.
- Jones is defending Palermo champion (2025 WTA 125) and won Rome WTA 125 on clay in 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFrancesca JonesEstimated chance78%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Recent first-set scores for both players indicate a high chance of a short set, supporting under 9.5 games.
- H2H first sets had 12 and 10 games, but recent form suggests quicker sets.
- Jones' last 5 clay first sets averaged 8.6 games.
- Bulgaru's last 5 clay first sets averaged 8.8 games.
- Jones won 6 of last 11 clay first sets by 6-3 or better.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent clay matches for both players trend toward lower game totals, especially in Jones' wins, suggesting under 20.5 games.
- Jones' last 5 clay wins averaged 18.4 total games per match.
- Bulgaru's last 5 clay losses averaged 18.2 total games per match.
- H2H matches had 19 and 20 total games.
- Jones' clay matches in last 15 averaged 21.7 games, but her wins were often quicker.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Second sets in recent clay matches for both players tend to be short, favoring under 9.5 games.
- Jones' last 5 clay second sets averaged 8.2 games.
- Bulgaru's last 5 clay second sets averaged 8.4 games.
- H2H second sets had 7 and 10 games.
- Jones won 7 of last 11 clay second sets by 6-3 or better.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jones' dominant clay wins and Bulgaru's heavy losses support a -4.5 game handicap for Jones.
- Jones' average game margin in clay wins over last 15 is +5.2 games.
- Bulgaru's average game margin in clay losses is -5.1 games.
- H2H margins were +5 and +4 games for Jones.
- Jones covers -4.5 in 6 of her last 8 clay wins.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFrancesca Jones -4.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Jones' strong first-set record and Bulgaru's poor start tendency on clay make Jones the clear favorite for set 1.
- Jones won the first set in both H2H meetings.
- Jones has a 87% career first-set win conversion rate.
- Jones won the first set in 7 of her last 11 clay matches.
- Bulgaru lost the first set in 10 of her last 15 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFrancesca JonesEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Jones' straight-set H2H history and Bulgaru's frequent straight-set losses on clay support a 2-0 outcome.
- Jones won both H2H matches in straight sets.
- Jones has won 8 of 11 clay matches in last 15, with 6 of those wins in straight sets.
- Bulgaru lost 10 of 15 recent clay matches in straight sets.
- Jones' first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating strong front-running.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonFrancesca Jones 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low tiebreak frequency in recent clay matches for both players makes a tiebreak unlikely.
- Jones has a 69% career tiebreak win rate, but tiebreaks are rare in her clay matches.
- Only 2 of Jones' last 15 clay matches featured a tiebreak.
- Bulgaru had 3 tiebreaks in last 15 clay matches.
- H2H matches had no tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace counts on clay, making under 5.5 total aces likely.
- Jones averages 1.5 aces per match on clay in last 15.
- Bulgaru averages 0.8 aces per match on clay in last 15.
- Combined average aces per match is 2.3.
- H2H matches had 4 and 2 total aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High double fault rates for both players on clay suggest over 7.5 total double faults.
- Jones averages 4.1 double faults per match on clay in last 15.
- Bulgaru averages 4.3 double faults per match on clay in last 15.
- Combined average double faults per match is 8.4.
- H2H matches had 22 and 13 double faults total.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W7-5 6-1Francesca Jones#113vMiriam Bianca Bulgaru#246May 8, 2025

W6-4 7-6(3)Francesca Jones#113vMiriam Bianca Bulgaru#246Nov 5, 2024

2 total meetings

Francesca Jones

8W 7L

6-3 6-2#227Darya Astakhova

6-3 6-1#120Lucia Bronzetti

2-6 6-1 6-1#339Martina Trevisan

6-3 6-1#144Noma Akugue Noha

2-6 6-4 6-1#280Federica Urgesi

1-6 6-1 6-0#355Dalila Spiteri

1-6 6-4 7-5#112Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 7-5#265Alice Rame

6-4 6-4#60Diane Parry

6-2 6-2#31Jelena Ostapenko

6-3 5-7 7-6(4)#70Talia Gibson

6-2 6-3#89Laura Siegemund

6-0 7-6(3)#21Marie Bouzkova

1-6 7-6(4) 6-2#149Beatriz Haddad Maia

2-6 6-3 6-4#444Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

3W 12L

3-6 6-1 6-2#257Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

7-5 6-1#184Elena Pridankina

6-3 6-3#153Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-2 6-2#571Valeriya Strakhova

6-3 6-1#702Petra Sedlackova

7-6(5) 6-2#392Weronika Ewald

6-4 6-2#262Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

6-4 6-3#896Danka Kovinic

7-6(3) 7-5#144Noma Akugue Noha

3-6 6-4 7-6(4)#454Iva Primorac

7-5 6-0#163Hanyu Guo

6-4 6-2#199Harmony Tan

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#384Julie Belgraver

6-2 6-2#182Anastasia Gasanova

4-6 6-2 7-6(6)—Elsa Bonelli

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FJFrancesca JonesJones

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Miriam Bianca BulgaruBulgaruMB

Francesca Jones carries the stronger recent form — Miriam Bianca Bulgaru's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In63.2%+2.0pp65.2%

1st Serve Won63.2%+8.3pp54.9%

2nd Serve Won44.7%+4.9pp39.8%

Aces / Match2.4+1.60.8

Double Faults / Match3.70.6 fewer4.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won44.9%—44.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.8%+6.4pp44.4%

Break Pts Saved57.1%+11.4pp45.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.8%+3.7pp47.1%

Serve · 4–1

63.2%1st Serve In+2.0pp65.2%

63.2%1st Serve Won+8.3pp54.9%

44.7%2nd Serve Won+4.9pp39.8%

2.4Aces / Match+1.60.8

3.7Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer4.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

44.9%Return Pts Won—44.6%

Pressure · 2–0

50.8%Break Pts Converted+6.4pp44.4%

57.1%Break Pts Saved+11.4pp45.7%

Points · 1–0

50.8%Total Pts Won+3.7pp47.1%

Francesca Jones #113United Kingdom2Miriam Bianca Bulgaru #246Romania0

Player Profiles

Francesca Jones

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 9.5

Under 9.5

Francesca Jones

Francesca Jones

Under 19.5

Francesca Jones 2-0

Francesca Jones -5.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Francesca Jones (-6.5) @ 1.85

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru 2-1 @ 13.00

Head-to-Head

Francesca Jones

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Stat Battle