AustriaATP KitzbuhelFinished

Predictions graded

Quentin Halys #84France2Valentin Vacherot #200

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Wed 22 Jul 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions1–713%

Edges1–517%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageValentin Vacherot · 64 places

Quentin Halys

France

Career-high No. 46 came on 2025-06-30 after his 2025 rise. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #84
Peak ranking: #46 · 2025
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Valentin Vacherot

Career-high No. 16 came on 2026-05-04 during his 2026 breakout. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface and says he is coached by Benjamin Balleret.

Current ranking: #20
Peak ranking: #16 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jul 2026, 22:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Valentin Vacherot’s superior return game and high-quality clay wins make him the favourite, but Quentin Halys’s serving and match rhythm could force a tight contest.

The best betting value lies in over 23.5 total games and Vacherot to win 2-1, while the match-winner odds are slightly short. Expect tiebreaks and extended sets on the Kitzbuhel clay.

Context

In his last 15 clay matches, Vacherot is 6-3 with wins over Musetti (ranked 15), De Minaur (5), and Hurkacz (70) in Monte-Carlo.
- Halys's clay wins in the same window include lower-ranked opponents like Djere (221), Cina (184), and Bellucci (79), plus a retirement.
Halys played and won his first-round match on 21 July, while Vacherot's last match was on 17 July.
- Halys served 12 aces and won 76.2% of first-serve points in that match, showing his serve is working on this court.
Vacherot's clay return points won: 37.1% (326/878) over 9 tracked matches.
- Halys's clay return points won: 32.9% (246/748) over 9 tracked matches.
- Vacherot also converts break points at a similar rate (31.3% vs 34.8%), but his higher return win rate gives him more opportunities.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Vacherot's superior return game and recent high-quality clay wins against elite opponents give him a clear edge over Halys, who has struggled against top-tier players on this surface.
- Vacherot's last 15 clay record: 6-3 (66.7%), with wins over top-15 opponents (Musetti, De Minaur, Hurkacz) in April 2026.
- Halys' last 15 clay record: 6-3 (66.7%), but his clay wins include lower-ranked opponents (Djere, Cina, Bellucci) and a retirement (Van De Zandschulp).
- Vacherot's clay return points won: 37.1% vs Halys' 32.9% in last 15 on clay, indicating a significant edge in breaking serve.
- Vacherot's break point save rate on clay: 71.8% vs Halys' 69.2%, suggesting better clutch serving under pressure.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostValentin VacherotEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent clay matches trend toward high game counts, driven by strong serving and frequent tiebreaks, making over 22.5 games likely.
- Halys' last 15 clay matches average 24.5 games per match (245 games in 9 matches).
- Vacherot's last 15 clay matches average 30.2 games per match (272 games in 9 matches).
- Both players have a high tiebreak rate: Halys 53% career, Vacherot 54% career, increasing the likelihood of extended sets.
- Halys' last match vs Djere went 23 games; Vacherot's last match vs Collignon went 35 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first-set trends show both players frequently going beyond 9.5 games, with tiebreaks and close scorelines common.
- Halys' last 5 clay first sets: 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 (average 10.2 games).
- Vacherot's last 5 clay first sets: 6-7, 4-6, 6-3, 6-7, 6-4 (average 10.2 games).
- Both players have strong first-serve win percentages on clay (Halys 76.2%, Vacherot 74.7%), leading to tight holds.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Second sets in their recent clay matches often extend past 9.5 games due to solid serving and competitive rallies.
- Halys' last 5 clay second sets: 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 (average 9.2 games, but 4 of 5 went over 9.5).
- Vacherot's last 5 clay second sets: 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-7, 6-4 (average 9.8 games).
- Both players' second-serve points won on clay are above 50% (Halys 54.5%, Vacherot 52.7%), reducing easy breaks.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Vacherot wins in straight sets, his typical margin of victory on clay covers -2.5 games, though a close match could see the handicap fail.
- Vacherot's average game margin in clay wins: +4.2 games (based on last 5 wins: +3, +3, +4, +3, +7).
- Halys' average game margin in clay losses: -4.0 games (based on last 5 losses: -4, -7, -6, -6, -3).
- Vacherot's superior return points won (37.1% vs 32.9%) suggests he can cover the handicap in a straight-set win.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostValentin Vacherot -2.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Vacherot's elite first-set conversion rate and higher first-serve consistency on clay make him the favorite to take the opening set.
- Vacherot's first-set win conversion rate: 89% career, indicating he starts matches strongly.
- Halys' first-set win conversion rate: 80% career, but his recent clay first sets include a tiebreak win vs Djere and a loss vs Shevchenko.
- Vacherot's clay first-serve points won: 74.7% vs Halys' 76.2%, but Vacherot's higher first-serve percentage (63.1% vs 59.6%) gives him more consistent holds.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostValentin VacherotEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High tiebreak frequency in both players' recent clay matches, combined with strong serving, makes a tiebreak likely in this encounter.
- Halys' last 15 clay matches: 5 of 9 had at least one tiebreak (55.6%).
- Vacherot's last 15 clay matches: 5 of 9 had at least one tiebreak (55.6%).
- Both players have career tiebreak win rates above 50% (Halys 53%, Vacherot 54%), indicating they often play tight sets.
- Halys' last match vs Djere included a first-set tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Halys' high ace rate on clay, combined with Vacherot's decent serving, pushes the total aces projection above 15.5, though Vacherot's lower clay ace numbers introduce some risk.
- Halys averages 10.1 aces per match on clay in last 15, Vacherot 7.8.
- Combined average aces per match: 17.9, but Vacherot's lower ace rate on clay (7.8) brings the total closer to 18.
- Halys' ace count in last 3 clay matches: 12, 8, 10 (average 10).
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 15.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average sits right at 6.5, and with both players prone to occasional high counts, over 6.5 is a marginal lean.
- Halys averages 3.3 double faults per match on clay in last 15, Vacherot 3.2.
- Combined average: 6.5, but both players have matches with higher counts (Halys 5 vs Djere, Vacherot 4 vs Collignon).
- Pressure situations in a close match could increase double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Quentin Halys

8W 7L

7-6(4) 6-4#221Laslo Djere

7-6(5) 6-3#84Alexander Shevchenko

6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5)#11Alexander Bublik

6-3 3-6 7-6(6)#184Federico Cina

7-6(5) 6-3 6-4#85Marcos Giron

3-6 6-1 7-6(5) 6-3#33Matteo Arnaldi

6-3 6-4#29Ugo Humbert

6-1 7-5#254Giles Hussey

6-2 6-4#127Toby Samuel

6-4 6-2#97Sho Shimabukuro

6-4 6-3 5-7 6-2#2Alexander Zverev

6-4 7-6(4) 7-6(8)#29Ugo Humbert

6-3 7-6(4) 6-3#79Mattia Bellucci

6-2 6-4#50Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-1 2-0 ret.#55Botic Van De Zandschulp

Valentin Vacherot

9W 6L

7-6(7) 4-6 7-5#37Raphael Collignon

4-6 6-3 6-4#52Yannick Hanfmann

6-3 6-4 3-6 7-6(6)#314Thomas Faurel

6-7(5) 7-6(1) 6-3#100Emilio Nava

6-4 6-4#3Carlos Alcaraz

6-4 3-6 6-3#5Alex De Minaur

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#70Hubert Hurkacz

7-6(6) 7-5#15Lorenzo Musetti

5-7 6-2 6-1#50Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#23Arthur Fils

7-6(5) 6-4#42Matteo Berrettini

6-3 6-4#47Mariano Navone

3-6 6-3 6-4#13Casper Ruud

7-5 7-5#48Nuno Borges

2-6 6-2 6-3#32Brandon Nakashima

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

QHQuentin HalysHalys

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Valentin VacherotVacherotVV

Valentin Vacherot carries the stronger recent form — Quentin Halys's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

1st Serve In57.7%+6.4pp64.1%

1st Serve Won76.5%—76.8%

2nd Serve Won50.9%+2.1pp53.0%

Aces / Match9.0+0.39.3

Double Faults / Match3.5—3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.6%+1.5pp35.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.7%+4.3pp32.4%

Break Pts Saved61.8%+8.0pp69.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.9%+1.7pp51.6%

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

57.7%1st Serve In+6.4pp64.1%

76.5%1st Serve Won—76.8%

50.9%2nd Serve Won+2.1pp53.0%

9.0Aces / Match+0.39.3

3.5Double Faults / Match—3.3

Return · 0–1

33.6%Return Pts Won+1.5pp35.1%

Pressure · 1–1

36.7%Break Pts Converted+4.3pp32.4%

61.8%Break Pts Saved+8.0pp69.8%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won+1.7pp51.6%

Quentin Halys #84France2Valentin Vacherot #200

Player Profiles

Quentin Halys

Valentin Vacherot

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 23.5

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Valentin Vacherot 2-1

Valentin Vacherot

Valentin Vacherot

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Quentin Halys

Valentin Vacherot

Stat Battle