PortugalATP EstorilFinished

Predictions graded

Kyrian Jacquet #134France1Alexander Blockx #38Belgium2

Sets 6-3 · 4-6 · 6-7Wed 22 Jul 2026, 18:20 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlexander Blockx · 96 places

Kyrian Jacquet

France

25-year-old French right-hander. Structured match data lists him at No. 134, and ITF records his career high at No. 102 on 2026-02-02. His 2026 ITF surface split is currently strongest on hard courts rather than clay.

Current ranking: #134
Peak ranking: #102 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Alexander Blockx

Belgium

21-year-old Belgian right-hander. Structured match data lists him at No. 38, while ITF showed No. 37 on 2026-06-22; ITF records his career high at No. 36 on 2026-05-04. ATP and ITF sources tie his 2026 rise to strong clay results, especially Monte-Carlo and Madrid.

Current ranking: #38
Peak ranking: #36 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Jul 2026, 08:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Fresh off a bye, No. 4 seed Alexander Blockx holds a clear edge over a fatigued Kyrian Jacquet, who played three matches in four days.

Blockx’s superior clay form, ranking, and serve dominance point to a straight-sets victory, with the first set likely going his way.

Context

Jacquet won qualifying on 18 July, lost a three-set final qualifier on 19 July, then beat Daniel Merida 1-6, 6-1, 7-5 on 21 July.
- Blockx, as the No. 4 seed, received a bye and has not played in Estoril yet.
- Jacquet's last match lasted over two hours, adding to his physical toll.
Blockx last 15 on clay: 9-5 record, 58.8% sets won, 52.2% games won over 14 matches.
- Jacquet last 15 on clay: 2-3 record, 38.5% sets won, 46.4% games won over only 5 matches.
- Blockx's first-serve points won on clay is 79.5%, compared to Jacquet's 66.7%.
Blockx's first-serve points won on clay: 79.5% over 14 matches.
- Blockx's break points saved on clay: 72.1%.
- Jacquet's return points won on clay is 39.7%, but his first-serve return may struggle against Blockx's power.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alexander Blockx

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Blockx's superior clay form, ranking, and fresh legs give him a clear edge over a fatigued Jacquet, whose small clay sample shows poor results.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Alexander Blockx

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Blockx's strong first-set record on clay (9/14) and Jacquet's slow starts (lost first set in 3 of last 5 clay matches) give Blockx an edge, but the odds already price in a 64.5% chance, slightly above our 60% estimate.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Alexander Blockx 2-0

2.10fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 47.6%

0.0ppshort

Blockx's strong straight-set record on clay and Jacquet's poor first-set win rate support a 2-0, but the edge is thin.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Blockx's superior clay form, ranking, and fresh legs give him a clear edge over a fatigued Jacquet, whose small clay sample shows poor results.
- Blockx last15 on clay: 64.3% win rate (9-5), 58.8% sets won, 52.2% games won over 14 matches.
- Jacquet last15 on clay: 40% win rate (2-3), 38.5% sets won, 46.4% games won over only 5 matches.
- Blockx holds a massive ranking edge (#38 vs #134) and has beaten top-10 opponents on clay this season (e.g., Ruud, Auger Aliassime).
- Jacquet has heavy recent workload: 3 matches in 4 days including a 3-setter yesterday; Blockx is fresh off a bye.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlexander BlockxEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Blockx's edge, Jacquet has been competitive early in matches, and Blockx's first sets often feature tight scorelines, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Jacquet's last 5 clay first sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Blockx's last 5 clay first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have competitive first-set stats, with Blockx's tiebreak rate (51% career) suggesting close sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Blockx's strong start tendency on clay and Jacquet's slow starts (lost first set in 3 of last 5 clay matches) point to a Blockx first-set win.
- Blockx won the first set in 9 of his last 14 clay matches (64.3%).
- Jacquet won the first set in only 2 of his last 5 clay matches (40%).
- Blockx's first-set win conversion rate for his career is 86%, indicating he closes out matches when ahead.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlexander BlockxEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Blockx's disciplined serving and Jacquet's moderate double-fault rate make under 5.5 likely, though Jacquet's 3.8 average adds risk.
- Blockx averages 2.5 double faults per match on clay, Jacquet 3.8.
- Combined average of 6.3 double faults, but Blockx's low rate and Jacquet's inconsistency (3.8 average but with variance) suggest under 5.5 is possible.
- In their last 5 clay matches, Blockx had 2 or fewer double faults in 4 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Kyrian Jacquet

9W 6L

1-6 6-1 7-5#59Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-4 3-6 6-3#192Taro Daniel

6-1 6-2—Goncalo Da Rosa Castro

6-2 6-3#95Marco Trungelliti

6-3 6-4 7-6(5)#11Alexander Bublik

6-3 6-4 7-6(2)#128Vilius Gaubas

7-6(5) 6-4 6-4#163Timofey Skatov

7-6(9) 6-4#213Andrea Guerrieri

6-1 7-6(3)#256Pedro Boscardin Dias

4-6 6-2 6-2#215Henry Searle

6-3 7-6(9)#142Grigor Dimitrov

6-4 2-0 ret.#471Mees Rottgering

7-6(6) 7-6(4)#178Gauthier Onclin

1-6 7-6(10) 6-4#127Toby Samuel

6-4 6-2 6-2#95Marco Trungelliti

Alexander Blockx

9W 6L

3-6 6-2 6-0#114Titouan Droguet

6-4 6-7(8) 7-6(5) 7-6(0)#2Alexander Zverev

6-3 6-4 6-2#112Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-1 6-4#2Alexander Zverev

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#66Tallon Griekspoor

4-6 6-1 6-3#184Federico Cina

6-2 7-5#2Alexander Zverev

6-4 6-4#13Casper Ruud

7-6(8) 6-2#22Francisco Cerundolo

7-6(3) 6-3#4Felix Auger Aliassime

3-6 6-3 6-4#32Brandon Nakashima

4-6 7-5 7-5#141Cristian Garin

6-4 7-6(8)#6Ben Shelton

7-6(2) 6-2#52Yannick Hanfmann

7-5 7-6(4)#5Alex De Minaur

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KJKyrian JacquetJacquet

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Alexander BlockxBlockxAB

Alexander Blockx carries the stronger recent form — Kyrian Jacquet's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In58.4%+2.1pp60.5%

1st Serve Won74.8%+4.6pp79.4%

2nd Serve Won49.1%+3.1pp52.2%

Aces / Match6.3+1.17.4

Double Faults / Match3.30.4 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.4%+5.0pp33.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.9%+9.7pp34.2%

Break Pts Saved54.9%+16.3pp71.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.3%—51.0%

Serve · 0–5

58.4%1st Serve In+2.1pp60.5%

74.8%1st Serve Won+4.6pp79.4%

49.1%2nd Serve Won+3.1pp52.2%

6.3Aces / Match+1.17.4

3.3Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

38.4%Return Pts Won+5.0pp33.4%

Pressure · 1–1

43.9%Break Pts Converted+9.7pp34.2%

54.9%Break Pts Saved+16.3pp71.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.3%Total Pts Won—51.0%