Sebastian Baez vs Miomir Kecmanovic: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Kecmanovic's 3-0 H2H edge, superior clay-court stats in recent window, and higher first-serve win rate give him a clear advantage over Baez, who has struggled against top-60 opponents on clay recently.
- H2H: Kecmanovic leads 3-0, including a 2025 Roland Garros 5-set win and a 2024 Paris Masters 3-set win.
- Surface: Kecmanovic clay record in last 10 matches is 7-3 (70%), with 54.9% games won and 53.6% total points won.
- Recent form: Kecmanovic 9-6 in last 15 overall, with strong clay wins over Tabilo, Marozsan, and Vallejo.
- Serve/return: Kecmanovic holds a 71.7% first-serve points won on clay in last 10, and 57.4% second-serve points won.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMiomir KecmanovicEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Baez's ability to keep matches tight, especially on clay, makes him likely to stay within 3.5 games even in a loss.
- Baez has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 12 of his last 15 matches overall.
- On clay, Baez has covered +3.5 in 12 of his last 14 matches.
- Kecmanovic's average winning margin in his last 10 clay wins is 4.1 games, but Baez's competitiveness keeps matches close.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonSebastian Baez +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in extended clay matches recently, and their H2H history features long battles, making over 21.5 games likely.
- Baez's last 10 clay matches averaged 21.4 total games, with 6 of 10 going over 21.5.
- Kecmanovic's last 10 clay matches averaged 22.5 total games, with 7 of 10 going over 21.5.
- H2H: Their last two completed matches had 39 and 30 games, both well over 21.5.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive given both players' recent form, with a high chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Baez's last 10 clay matches: 7 of 10 first sets had 10+ games.
- Kecmanovic's last 10 clay matches: 6 of 10 first sets had 10+ games.
- H2H: First sets in their meetings: 7-6, 6-4, 6-3 (two of three over 9.5).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Second sets have been tight in their matchups, and both players' recent clay data supports a high likelihood of over 9.5 games.
- Baez's last 10 clay matches: 6 of 10 second sets had 10+ games.
- Kecmanovic's last 10 clay matches: 7 of 10 second sets had 10+ games.
- H2H: Second sets in their meetings: 6-7, 6-7, 6-2 (two of three over 9.5).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Kecmanovic's strong start tendency on clay and Baez's recent first-set struggles suggest Kecmanovic is likely to take the opener.
- Kecmanovic has won the first set in 7 of his last 10 clay matches.
- Baez lost the first set in 5 of his last 10 clay matches, including against Rublev and Bublik.
- H2H: Kecmanovic won the first set in their last two meetings (2024 Paris, 2024 Eastbourne).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMiomir KecmanovicEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches for both players and their history of tight contests make over 2.5 sets probable.
- Baez has gone to three sets in 7 of his last 15 matches (47%).
- Kecmanovic has gone to three sets in 8 of his last 15 matches (53%).
- H2H: Their last two meetings both went the distance.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Sebastian Baez #57Argentina2Miomir Kecmanovic #60Serbia1

Player Profiles

Sebastian Baez

Miomir Kecmanovic

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sebastian Baez +1.5

Miomir Kecmanovic

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Miomir Kecmanovic 2-1

Miomir Kecmanovic

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Baez

Miomir Kecmanovic

Stat Battle