SpainSegovia - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Yaroslav Demin #663Russia0Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine #502France2

Sets 5-7 · 3-6Sun 19 Jul 2026, 08:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions7–0100%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageConstantin Bittoun Kouzmine · 161 places

Yaroslav Demin

Russia

20-year-old right-hander listed at 185 cm. ATP live rankings place him at No. 663 on July 19, 2026. Public ATP bio/profile detail is limited in the current search results.

Current ranking: #663
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

France

27-year-old left-hander listed at 178 cm. ATP live rankings place him at No. 502 on July 19, 2026. Public ATP bio/profile detail is limited in the current search results.

Current ranking: #502
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Jul 2026, 09:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine's superior hard-court form and seeding make him a strong favorite against wild card Yaroslav Demin.

Back Bittoun Kouzmine to win outright at 2.40 and in straight sets at 4.00, with a low-scoring match likely.

Context

He won five straight matches on hard court from July 1 to July 5, including a 6-0 6-0 victory.
- In those five wins, he lost only one set and averaged just 13.2 games per match.
- His last-15 hard-court record is 10-5, with a 58% games-won rate.
Demin's last 13 matches were on clay, with a 6-7 record.
- His last hard-court match was on February 20, a 6-1 6-2 loss to Thijs Boogaard.
- In his last 15 matches overall, his games-won rate is only 48.4%.
Demin has hit 66 double faults in his last 14 tracked matches (4.7 per match).
- On clay, his double-fault rate rises to 5.5 per match.
- Bittoun Kouzmine converts 53% of break points in his last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Bittoun Kouzmine's superior recent form on hard courts and higher ranking give him a clear edge over Demin, who has been inconsistent on clay and lacks hard-court momentum.
- Bittoun Kouzmine has a 66.7% win rate in last 15 matches (10-5) vs Demin's 46.7% (7-8).
- Bittoun Kouzmine's last 5 matches are all wins on hard court, while Demin's last 5 include 3 losses on clay.
- Bittoun Kouzmine holds a 58% games-won rate in last 15 matches vs Demin's 48.4%.
- Bittoun Kouzmine is seeded No. 7 in qualifying, indicating higher standing in this field.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonConstantin Bittoun KouzmineEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bittoun Kouzmine's ability to win efficiently in straight sets on hard courts suggests a match total under 21.5 games, given Demin's recent struggles.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's last 5 wins averaged 16.8 games per match, with several straight-set blowouts.
- Demin's last 5 losses averaged 18.6 games, often losing in straight sets.
- Combined, their recent matches trend toward shorter contests, with Bittoun Kouzmine's dominance reducing total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bittoun Kouzmine's ability to win by comfortable margins on hard courts suggests he can cover a -3.5 game handicap against an out-of-form Demin.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's average games-won margin in last 5 wins is +7.2 games.
- Demin's average games-lost margin in last 5 losses is -5.8 games.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's return points won (45.6%) in last 15 matches is higher than Demin's (41.5%).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonConstantin Bittoun Kouzmine -3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Bittoun Kouzmine's strong starts and superior serving in recent hard-court matches make him likely to take the opening set against a Demin who has struggled early in matches.
- Bittoun Kouzmine has won the first set in 9 of his last 10 wins, often with dominant scores (6-0, 6-1, 6-3).
- Demin's first-set win rate in last 15 matches is 46.7%, with several slow starts on clay.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's first-serve points won (67.5%) in last 15 matches outpaces Demin's 62%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonConstantin Bittoun KouzmineEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 4.00
The read
Bittoun Kouzmine's straight-set dominance in recent hard-court matches and Demin's tendency to lose in straight sets make a 2-0 victory the most likely outcome.
- Bittoun Kouzmine has won 8 of his last 10 matches in straight sets.
- Demin has lost 6 of his last 8 matches in straight sets.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's break-point conversion rate (53%) in last 15 matches is significantly higher than Demin's (44.4%).
BetBugs · Set BettingwonConstantin Bittoun Kouzmine 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The strong trend of straight-set outcomes for both players in recent matches supports a match ending in two sets.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's last 10 wins include 8 straight-set victories.
- Demin's last 8 losses include 6 straight-set defeats.
- The match is on hard court, where Bittoun Kouzmine has a 66.7% win rate in last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bittoun Kouzmine's ability to win sets comfortably on hard courts makes a tiebreak unlikely in this match.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's last 10 matches featured only 1 tiebreak.
- Demin's last 10 matches featured 3 tiebreaks, but mostly on clay.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's dominant serving and returning on hard courts reduce the likelihood of tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace counts in recent matches, making under 5.5 total aces likely in a best-of-three format.
- Bittoun Kouzmine averages 1.5 aces per match in last 15 matches.
- Demin averages 1.2 aces per match in last 15 matches.
- Combined, their ace rates suggest a low total, especially in a potentially short match.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Demin's high double-fault rate, especially under pressure, combined with Bittoun Kouzmine's moderate rate, pushes the total over 7.5.
- Demin averages 4.7 double faults per match in last 15 matches, with 5.5 on clay.
- Bittoun Kouzmine averages 3.4 double faults per match in last 15 matches.
- Combined, they average over 8 double faults per match, even in straight-set contests.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Yaroslav Demin

7W 8L

6-2 6-4#353Andrey Chepelev

6-4 6-4#237Andrej Nedic

6-2 6-3#896Younes Lalami Laaroussi

6-1 3-6 6-4—Esteban Talavera Cortes

6-3 6-1#492Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-1 6-1—Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka

6-2 6-4#767Daniel Jade

6-2 6-0—Axel Herberg

6-1 7-6(2)#312Jonas Forejtek

7-6(2) 7-5#519Christoph Negritu

5-7 7-6(3) 7-5#744Michael Vrbensky

5-7 6-3 6-3#515Alex Marti Pujolras

7-6(7) 6-0#252Maks Kasnikowski

6-1 6-2#529Thijs Boogaard

6-3 6-4#842Hazem Naow

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

10W 5L

6-3 3-6 6-4—Matias Reyniak

2-6 6-4 6-1#796Mert Naci Turker

7-5 6-4—Anmar Faleh Alhogbani

6-3 6-3—Udit Kamboj

6-0 6-0—Renato Kurmanaev

6-4 1-6 7-6(1)#830Keshav Chopra

6-3 6-1—Kerem Yilmaz

6-3 6-1—Birtan Duran

6-4 6-1—Bogdan Seleznev

6-2 6-1—Felix Roussel

6-4 6-3#568Guillaume Dalmasso

3-6 6-1 6-4#557Alec Beckley

6-1 4-6 7-6(6)#557Alec Beckley

7-5 6-0—Jake Dembo

6-1 6-0—Ronan Tashinga Mtisi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YDYaroslav DeminDemin

Last 15

0–9

9 core stats · 0 even

Constantin Bittoun KouzmineKouzmineCK

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine carries the stronger recent form — Yaroslav Demin's route runs through aces / match.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1559.6%+2.9pp62.5%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1562.0%+5.5pp67.5%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1543.7%+7.9pp51.6%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/151.2+0.31.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.71.3 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1541.5%+4.1pp45.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1544.4%+8.6pp53.0%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1558.7%+4.3pp63.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1548.3%+5.2pp53.5%

Serve · 0–5

59.6%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+2.9pp62.5%

62.0%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+5.5pp67.5%

43.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+7.9pp51.6%

1.2Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.31.5

4.7Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.3 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

41.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+4.1pp45.6%

Pressure · 0–2

44.4%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+8.6pp53.0%

58.7%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+4.3pp63.0%

Points · 0–1

48.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.2pp53.5%

Yaroslav Demin

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Yaroslav Demin

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Stat Battle