AustriaATP KitzbuhelFinished

Predictions graded

Hugo Dellien #144Bolivia2Michele Ribecai #265Italy1

Sets 4-6 · 6-1 · 6-3Sat 18 Jul 2026, 14:35 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions5–550%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHugo Dellien · 121 places

Hugo Dellien

Bolivia

Career-high singles ranking No. 64 on 2022-08-01. ITF still lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #144
Peak ranking: #64 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Michele Ribecai

Italy

Public profile data is thinner than Dellien's. Stevegtennis lists a recent best ranking of No. 259 on 2026-06-22 and hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #265
Peak ranking: #259 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jul 2026, 11:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Hugo Dellien is a strong favorite over Michele Ribecai in Kitzbuhel qualifying, backed by superior clay form and ranking.

A straight-sets win for Dellien is likely, with the -3.5 game handicap offering a small edge. Avoid the over 21.5 total games, as Dellien's efficient wins often stay under that mark.

Context

Dellien is 10-4 on clay in his last 14 matches, with a 55.3% games-won rate.
- He has won his last five clay matches, beating opponents ranked 217, 219, 254, 327, and 351.
- Ribecai is 6-9 on clay in his last 15, with a 50.4% games-won rate.
Ribecai lost 6-1 6-2 to No. 352 Villanueva in his most recent match.
- He also lost to No. 805 Rapagnetta and No. 505 Mcdonald in straight sets.
- His wins came against No. 238 Roncadelli, No. 250 Reis Da Silva, No. 201 Olivieri, No. 215 Squire, No. 351 Xilas, and No. 895 Tonejc.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Dellien's superior clay-court form (10-4 last 15) and higher ranking give him a clear edge over Ribecai, who has struggled with a 40% win rate and poor deciding-set record.
- Dellien last 15 on clay: 10-4 record, 55.3% games won, 53.1% total points won
- Ribecai last 15 on clay: 6-9 record, 50.4% games won, 49.6% total points won
- Dellien career clay win% 63.1% vs Ribecai 62.6% overall but only 39% deciding-set win rate
- Dellien ranking 144 vs Ribecai 265, Dellien seeded #3 in qualifying
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance78%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players saving break points at above-average rates and Ribecai's matches tending to be longer, this Bo3 contest is likely to exceed 20.5 games.
- Dellien last 15 clay matches averaged 21.8 games per match
- Ribecai last 15 clay matches averaged 24.5 games per match
- Both players have high break-point save rates (Dellien 61.2%, Ribecai 58.6%) suggesting extended games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive given both players' average first-set game counts near 10, with a tiebreak possible.
- Dellien last 15 clay first sets averaged 9.8 games
- Ribecai last 15 clay first sets averaged 9.6 games
- Both players have first-set tiebreak history (Dellien 52% career tiebreak win, Ribecai 53%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Even if Dellien leads, Ribecai's resilience and Dellien's break-point saving ability should keep the second set close, pushing it over 9.5 games.
- Dellien second sets last 15 clay averaged 9.4 games, Ribecai 9.8 games
- Ribecai's matches often go deep: 7 of last 15 clay matches had second set with 10+ games
- Dellien's break point save rate 61.2% can prolong sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Dellien's superior form and ranking should allow him to cover a -3.5 game handicap against Ribecai, who has struggled against higher-ranked clay opponents.
- Dellien's average games won margin on clay last 15: +1.5 games per match
- Against opponents ranked outside top 200, Dellien often wins by wider margins
- Ribecai's average games lost margin: -1.2 games per match on clay
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHugo Dellien -3.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Dellien's strong first-set record and higher serve hold rate on clay make him likely to start fast against Ribecai, who has dropped the opener in 9 of his last 15 clay matches.
- Dellien first-set win conversion career 88%, last 15 on clay won 10 of 14 first sets
- Ribecai first-set win conversion career 85% but last 15 on clay won only 6 of 15 first sets
- Dellien holds serve 70.3% on clay last 15 vs Ribecai 63.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHugo DellienEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Dellien's consistency and lower error rate should allow him to maintain pressure in the second set, where Ribecai's higher double-fault count and weaker break conversion become costly.
- Dellien won second set in 9 of last 14 clay matches, Ribecai won second set in only 6 of 15
- Dellien break point conversion 50% last 15 clay vs Ribecai 45.2%
- Ribecai double faults per match 2.7 vs Dellien 1.3 on clay
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Dellien's ability to win in straight sets against lower-ranked opponents and Ribecai's tendency to lose in straights support a 2-0 victory.
- Dellien won in straight sets in 7 of his last 10 clay wins
- Ribecai lost in straight sets in 6 of his last 9 clay losses
- Dellien's first-set win conversion 88% suggests he closes matches efficiently
BetBugs · Set BettinglostHugo Dellien 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's straight-set win rate and Ribecai's straight-set loss rate point to a match finishing in two sets.
- Dellien's last 15 clay matches: 10 wins, 7 in straight sets
- Ribecai's last 15 clay matches: 9 losses, 6 in straight sets
- Dellien's higher ranking and form reduce likelihood of a deciding set
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server on clay, with Ribecai averaging barely over 1 ace per match, making under 5.5 total aces likely.
- Dellien averages 4.0 aces per match on clay last 15, Ribecai only 1.1
- Combined average aces per match: 5.1, but Ribecai's low ace count drags total down
- Clay surface reduces ace effectiveness for both
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ribecai's high double-fault rate alone nearly covers the over, and Dellien's occasional errors push the total past 3.5.
- Ribecai averages 2.7 double faults per match on clay last 15
- Dellien averages 1.3 double faults per match on clay last 15
- Combined average 4.0 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 3.5Estimated chance62%

Hugo Dellien

10W 5L

2-6 6-3 6-4#704Matyas Fuele

5-7 6-0 6-1#327Enrico Dalla Valle

6-2 6-3#351Ioannis Xilas

5-7 6-4 6-2#254Matej Dodig

4-6 7-6(4) 6-4#397Henry Bernet

3-6 6-0 7-5#217Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-1 6-2#219Andrea Guerrieri

6-3 7-5#378Carlo Alberto Caniato

5-7 6-1 6-4#245Alex Barrena

6-4 6-0#109Bu Yunchaokete

6-3 7-5#320Max Schoenhaus

6-4 6-2 6-2#77Valentin Royer

6-3 3-6 6-1#165Roberto Carballes Baena

6-1 6-4#254Matej Dodig

6-4 6-4#339Sean Cuenin

Michele Ribecai

6W 9L

6-1 6-2#352Gonzalo Villanueva

4-6 7-5 6-4#254Matej Dodig

6-3 6-3#238Franco Roncadelli

7-6(4) 6-4#805Daniele Rapagnetta

7-5 6-7(5) 6-1#505Niels Mcdonald

2-6 6-1 6-4#110Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 6-0#250Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

7-6(5) 6-2#201Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-4 6-1#215Henri Squire

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#270Franco Agamenone

6-4 3-6 7-6(2)#116Pablo Llamas Ruiz

5-7 6-3 6-4#457Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-4 6-1#351Ioannis Xilas

6-7(2) 6-3 6-0#460Thanasi Kokkinakis

5-7 6-4 6-1#895Vito Tonejc

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HDHugo DellienDellien

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Michele RibecaiRibecaiMR

Hugo Dellien carries the stronger recent form — Michele Ribecai's route runs through return pts won.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In71.3%+12.5pp58.8%

1st Serve Won69.2%+5.6pp63.6%

2nd Serve Won53.6%+2.6pp51.0%

Aces / Match4.1+3.01.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.21.5 fewer2.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won39.9%—40.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.0%+4.8pp45.2%

Break Pts Saved60.2%+1.6pp58.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.4%+2.8pp49.6%

Serve · 5–0

71.3%1st Serve In+12.5pp58.8%

69.2%1st Serve Won+5.6pp63.6%

53.6%2nd Serve Won+2.6pp51.0%

4.1Aces / Match+3.01.1

1.2Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.5 fewer2.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.9%Return Pts Won—40.4%

Pressure · 2–0

50.0%Break Pts Converted+4.8pp45.2%

60.2%Break Pts Saved+1.6pp58.6%

Points · 1–0

52.4%Total Pts Won+2.8pp49.6%

Hugo Dellien

Michele Ribecai

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Hugo Dellien

Hugo Dellien -3.5

Hugo Dellien 2-0

Hugo Dellien

Hugo Dellien

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Hugo Dellien

Michele Ribecai

Stat Battle