Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Baez's superior career clay pedigree and slightly better return stats give him a narrow edge, though De Jong's strong recent clay form and Bastad familiarity keep it close.
- Baez career clay win% 243-107 (69.4%) vs De Jong 185-107 (63.4%)
- Baez 2026 clay: 14-11 (56%) vs De Jong 20-11 (64.5%) but Baez faced stronger opposition
- H2H: Baez won 2-6 6-3 6-3 on hard in 2020, limited relevance but shows ability to adjust
- Baez return points won 42% career vs De Jong 41%, slight edge
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSebastian BaezEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
With both players strong on return and capable of extending rallies on clay, a competitive match with at least 22 games is likely.
- De Jong's last 5 clay matches averaged 22.8 games, Baez's 20.6
- Both players have high break point conversion rates (De Jong 42%, Baez 45%)
- De Jong's recent clay matches often go to three sets (3 of last 5 went deciding set)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first-set scores for both players on clay frequently exceed 9.5 games, indicating a competitive start likely to go over the total.
- De Jong's last 5 clay first sets: 7-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 (avg 10.2 games)
- Baez's last 5 clay first sets: 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, 5-7 (avg 9.8 games)
- Both players have high first-set win conversion, suggesting tight opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
De Jong's competitive recent form and Bastad familiarity suggest he can keep the match within 2.5 games even if he loses.
- De Jong's recent clay losses: 6-3 7-5 (2 games), 7-5 6-3 (4 games), 7-6 6-4 6-1 (8 games but vs Zverev)
- Baez's recent clay wins: 4-6 6-4 6-1 (3 games), 6-4 6-2 (4 games), 6-2 7-6 (5 games)
- De Jong's Bastad final run in 2025 shows he can compete closely on this surface
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostJesper De Jong +2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been closely contested for both, with a slight lean toward over 9.5 given their return strengths and clay-court dynamics.
- De Jong's last 5 clay second sets: 7-5, 6-2, 7-6, 6-4, 6-1 (avg 9.4 games)
- Baez's last 5 clay second sets: 6-4, 6-2, 7-6, 7-5, 6-3 (avg 9.6 games)
- Both players have similar second-set game averages around 9.5
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players start sets well on clay, but Baez's slightly higher first-serve percentage and return edge may help him edge the opener in a tight contest.
- Baez first set win conversion 85% career vs De Jong 87%, both strong
- De Jong won first set in 4 of last 5 clay matches, Baez in 3 of last 5
- Baez lost first set in last Bastad match but came back, De Jong won first set in straight-sets opener
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSebastian BaezEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is evenly poised, and with both players showing a tendency for three-set battles on clay, a deciding set is a slight possibility.
- De Jong's last 5 clay matches: 3 three-setters, 2 straight-setters
- Baez's last 5 clay matches: 2 three-setters, 3 straight-setters
- Both have deciding set win% around 54-55%, indicating evenness when matches extend
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, and on clay, total aces are likely to stay under 7.5 given their low ace rates.
- De Jong ace rate 6.5%, Baez 2.2% career
- De Jong averages ~3.9 aces per match (based on 2301 aces in 507 matches), Baez ~1.6
- Clay surface reduces ace counts for both players
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While both have moderate double fault rates, the extended rallies on clay may lead to more double faults, pushing the total over 5.5.
- De Jong double fault rate 3.9%, Baez 2.5%
- De Jong averages ~2.7 DFs per match, Baez ~1.8
- Combined average ~4.5, but clay rallies can increase pressure and DFs
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Jesper De Jong #73Netherlands0Sebastian Baez #56Argentina2

Player Profiles

Jesper De Jong

Sebastian Baez

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Jesper De Jong 2-0

Over 21.5

Jesper De Jong +2.5

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Jesper De Jong

Sebastian Baez