SwitzerlandATP GstaadFinished

Predictions graded

Jaime Faria #92Portugal1Casper Ruud #13Norway2

Sets 7-6 · 4-6 · 2-6Thu 16 Jul 2026, 11:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–529%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCasper Ruud · 79 places

Jaime Faria

Portugal

Highest career ranking No. 87 on 24 February 2025. ATP bio lists clay as his favorite surface, and his 2026 season already includes a French Open third round.

Current ranking: #92
Peak ranking: #87 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Casper Ruud

Norway

Highest career ranking No. 2 on 12 September 2022. ATP bio lists clay as his favorite surface, and he remains one of the tour's most established clay-court players.

Current ranking: #13
Peak ranking: #2 · 2022
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Jul 2026, 07:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Casper Ruud's fresh legs and elite clay-court game give him a decisive edge over Jaime Faria, who is fatigued after a long three-set opener.

The best betting value lies in under 21.5 total games and under 8.5 aces, while the match-winner and straight-sets markets are too short to back.

Context

Faria defeated Wawrinka 6-7(8) 6-4 6-4 in 2h37m on 15 July.
- Ruud received a first-round bye as the No. 2 seed and has not played yet this week.
- Short recovery windows after long clay matches often lead to slower movement and reduced serve consistency.
Ruud's 2026 clay record is 16-5, with losses to Sinner (1), Fonseca (27), Navone (48), and Paul (24).
- He has straight-set wins over Medjedovic (69), Popyrin (103), Collignon (42), Brooksby (76), Darderi (18), Musetti (14), and Lehecka (12) on clay this season.
- Faria is ranked 92 and has a 27-12 clay record in 2026, but most wins came against players outside the top 100.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Ruud's elite clay-court pedigree, fresh legs from a bye, and Faria's physical fatigue from a long opener give Ruud a decisive edge.
- Ruud career clay win% 65% vs Faria 61.7% overall, but Ruud's clay pedigree is elite with 267 career clay wins.
- Ruud 2026 clay record 16-5, Faria 27-12 but mostly at lower levels; Ruud's clay wins include top-30 opponents.
- H2H: Ruud won 7-6(3) 6-2 on indoor hard in 2024, showing baseline superiority.
- Faria coming off 2h37m three-setter vs Wawrinka yesterday; Ruud fresh with bye.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCasper RuudEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Ruud's efficient clay-court style and Faria's fatigue point to a relatively quick match with fewer than 22 games.
- Ruud's recent clay wins often under 21.5 games: 6-3 6-2 vs Medjedovic (18 games), 6-4 6-3 vs Popyrin (19 games).
- Faria's last match had 33 games, but that was an outlier; his average clay match games this season ~22.
- H2H match had 21 games (7-6, 6-2).
- Ruud's serve dominance (71.4% first-serve points won) should limit long games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ruud's ability to win comfortably on clay and Faria's physical disadvantage support a handicap cover of -3.5 games.
- Ruud's average game margin in straight-set clay wins: +5 to +7 games.
- Faria's recent losses: -6 vs Bergs, -7 vs Tiafoe, -4 vs Zhang.
- H2H margin was +5 games for Ruud.
- Fatigue likely widens the gap.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonCasper Ruud -3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Ruud's quick starts on clay and Faria's physical state suggest a first set with 9 or fewer games.
- Ruud's recent clay first sets: 6-3, 6-2, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3 in last 5 clay wins.
- Faria's first sets often tight but lost 6-4, 6-7, 3-6 in recent clay matches.
- H2H first set was 7-6, but Ruud's current form suggests a more dominant start.
- Fatigue may cause Faria to drop serve early.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Ruud wins set 1, Faria's fatigue likely leads to a lopsided second set, but a competitive set is possible.
- Ruud's second sets in straight-set wins often 6-2, 6-3, 6-4.
- Faria's second-set performance drops when fatigued: lost 6-4, 6-2 in recent three-setters.
- H2H second set was 6-2 to Ruud.
- Risk: Faria could push a tiebreak if he conserves energy.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Ruud's exceptional first-set record and Faria's tendency to start slowly, compounded by fatigue, make Ruud a strong favorite for set 1.
- Ruud first-set win conversion 90% career, Faria 87% but against lower-ranked players.
- Ruud won first set in 12 of last 15 matches; Faria lost first set in 3 of last 5 clay matches.
- Faria's slow starts: lost first set to Wawrinka, Tiafoe, Nava recently.
- Ruud's fresh legs vs Faria's fatigue should give early edge.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCasper RuudEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Ruud's strong first-set record and Faria's fatigue make a straight-sets win likely, though Faria's clay resilience could force a decider.
- Ruud first-set win conversion 90% career, Faria 87% but against weaker opposition.
- Faria's recent clay matches often go three sets (4 of last 6 clay matches went deciding set).
- Ruud's serve stats: 71.4% first-serve points won, 53.6% second-serve points won on clay; Faria's return points won 40% career.
- Fatigue factor: Faria played 2h37m yesterday, likely to fade in straight sets.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostCasper Ruud 2-0Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Clay surface and both players' moderate ace rates make a low total ace count likely.
- Ruud ace rate 6.3% career, Faria 7.1% but on clay both lower.
- Clay reduces ace counts; Ruud averages ~3 aces per match on clay, Faria ~4.
- Recent matches: Ruud 2 aces vs Hurkacz, 4 vs Fonseca; Faria 3 vs Wawrinka.
- Combined ace potential unlikely to exceed 8.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 8.5Market price1.85Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Ruud's strong serving and Faria's fatigue make a tiebreak unlikely, though Faria's resilience could force one.
- Ruud tiebreak win% 51% career, Faria 52%.
- Ruud's recent clay matches: only 1 tiebreak in last 10 clay matches.
- Faria played a tiebreak vs Wawrinka but Ruud's serve dominance reduces tiebreak likelihood.
- H2H had a tiebreak, but Ruud's current form suggests fewer tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Faria's higher double fault rate and potential fatigue could push the combined total over 5.5, though Ruud's low rate keeps it close.
- Faria double fault rate 5.7% career, Ruud 3.1%.
- Faria had 4 double faults vs Wawrinka, 3 vs Bergs.
- Ruud typically 1-2 double faults per match.
- Fatigue could increase Faria's double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-6(3) 6-2Jaime Faria#92vCasper Ruud#13Sep 14, 2024

1 total meetings

Jaime Faria

11W 4L

6-7(8) 6-4 6-4#117Stan Wawrinka

7-6(6) 4-6 6-2 6-3#35Zizou Bergs

7-6(6) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#95Sho Shimabukuro

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3 6-4#161Rei Sakamoto

6-4 6-4#264Luka Pavlovic

6-3 6-3#221Hugo Grenier

6-4 7-5#156Zhizhen Zhang

6-3 6-4#151Moez Echargui

4-6 6-7(2) 7-6(4) 6-1 6-2#17Frances Tiafoe

7-5 7-6(1) 6-2#41Jan-Lennard Struff

6-4 7-5 6-4#39Denis Shapovalov

6-3 7-6(9)#162Lukas Neumayer

6-1 3-6 6-3#181Colton Smith

3-6 7-5 7-6(6)#146Grigor Dimitrov

6-2 6-7(7) 7-6(5)#91Emilio Nava

Casper Ruud

11W 4L

6-4 6-2 7-6(7)#68Hubert Hurkacz

7-5 7-6(8) 5-7 6-2#27Joao Fonseca

4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(4) 7-5#24Tommy Paul

6-3 6-2 6-4#69Hamad Medjedovic

6-2 7-6(5) 5-7 0-6 6-2#96Roman Safiullin

7-5 6-2#48Mariano Navone

6-4 6-3#103Alexei Popyrin

7-6(2) 6-2#42Raphael Collignon

6-3 7-5#76Jenson Brooksby

6-4 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

6-1 6-1#18Luciano Darderi

6-1 1-6 6-2#26Karen Khachanov

6-3 6-1#14Lorenzo Musetti

6-3 6-4#12Jiri Lehecka

6-1 6-3#72Zachary Svajda

Jaime Faria

Casper Ruud

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 8.5

Under 21.5

No

Under 9.5

Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud -3.5

Casper Ruud 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Jaime Faria

Casper Ruud