SwitzerlandATP GstaadFinished

Predictions graded

Stefanos Tsitsipas #87Greece2Ignacio Buse #34Peru0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Tue 14 Jul 2026, 14:04 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions2–820%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIgnacio Buse · 53 places

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

Former world No. 3, first reached on 9 August 2021. ATP lists grass as his favourite surface. His current ranking sits well below that peak entering Gstaad 2026.

Current ranking: #87
Peak ranking: #3 · 2021
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Ignacio Buse

Peru

Former Top-10 junior. ATP says he broke into the Top 50 in May 2026 after winning Hamburg, and many of his biggest tour results have come on clay, including Gstaad 2025 and Rio/Hamburg 2026.

Current ranking: #34
Peak ranking: #31 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 07:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Ignacio Buse holds a structural edge over Stefanos Tsitsipas on clay, backed by superior 2026 form, a straight-sets H2H win, and strong return stats.

Value lies in backing Buse to win, over 9.5 games in set one, and a tiebreak in the match, while avoiding the game handicap and total sets markets.

Context

Tsitsipas is 2-5 in his last 7 matches, with losses to Djokovic, Arnaldi, Tien, Machac, and Marozsan.
- His only wins in that stretch came against Gaston (ranked 118) and a retirement from Muller.
- He has lost in straight sets in four of those five defeats, often failing to be competitive.
Buse defeated Tsitsipas 7-6(4), 6-3 at ATP Mallorca on 23 June 2026.
- Buse won 78% of first-serve points and saved the only break point he faced in that match.
- Tsitsipas struggled on return, winning only 28% of return points.
Buse's 2026 clay record: 16-10, with wins over top-30 players like Tommy Paul and Jakub Mensik.
- Tsitsipas' 2026 clay record: 5-7, with losses to players ranked outside the top 30 like Marozsan and Cerundolo.
- Buse wins 42% of return points and converts 44% of break points on clay, compared to Tsitsipas' 37% and 40%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Buse's superior recent form, clay proficiency, and H2H win give him a structural edge on this surface.
- Buse defeated Tsitsipas 7-6(4) 6-3 on grass in June 2026, the only H2H meeting.
- Buse has a 16-10 clay record in 2026 vs Tsitsipas' 5-7, and a career 141 clay wins vs 207 for Tsitsipas.
- Buse's return points won (42%) and break point conversion (44%) exceed Tsitsipas' (37%, 40%).
- Tsitsipas is 2-5 in his last 7 matches, while Buse is 8-5 in his last 13 with wins over top-30 opponents.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIgnacio BuseEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Strong serving and recent tight first sets make over 9.5 games likely in the opener.
- Their H2H first set went to a tiebreak (13 games).
- Tsitsipas' last 5 first sets: 9, 7, 13, 13, 10 games (avg 10.4).
- Buse's last 5 first sets: 8, 13, 12, 9, 8 games (avg 10.0).
- Both have first-serve win percentages around 68-76%, limiting quick breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Competitive serve/return dynamics and recent match lengths point to a match exceeding 21.5 games.
- Their only meeting had 22 games (7-6, 6-3).
- Tsitsipas' last 5 Bo3 matches averaged 22.4 games.
- Buse's last 5 Bo3 matches averaged 21.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Both players have break point save rates below 65%, extending games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While the H2H second set was short, recent form indicates a tighter second set is plausible.
- Their H2H second set had 9 games (6-3).
- Tsitsipas' last 5 second sets: 10, 5, 9, 12, 10 games (avg 9.2).
- Buse's last 5 second sets: 9, 9, 12, 7, 10 games (avg 9.4).
- Both players' break point conversion rates suggest potential for extended games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Buse's recent momentum and Tsitsipas' slow starts suggest Buse is slightly more likely to take the opener.
- Buse won the first set 7-6 in their only meeting.
- Buse's first-set win conversion is 85% career vs Tsitsipas' 89%, but Buse has been more consistent in early sets recently.
- Tsitsipas has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostIgnacio BuseEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Buse's return edge and Tsitsipas' vulnerability in second sets make Buse a narrow favorite for set 2.
- Buse won the second set 6-3 in their H2H.
- Tsitsipas has lost the second set in 2 of his last 4 completed matches.
- Buse's return game pressure often leads to late-set breaks.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostIgnacio BuseEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
The serve-oriented nature of both players and recent tiebreak frequency make at least one tiebreak likely.
- Their H2H featured a first-set tiebreak.
- Tsitsipas has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%).
- Buse has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%).
- Both have career tiebreak win rates of 58%, indicating closely matched serving.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates and recent averages suggest a total above 5.5 is slightly more likely.
- Tsitsipas double fault rate: 3.0%, Buse: 3.4%.
- In their H2H, Tsitsipas had 4 DFs, Buse 2 (total 6).
- Tsitsipas' last 5 matches: DF counts of 3, 2, 4, 5, 3 (avg 3.4).
- Buse's last 5 matches: DF counts of 2, 3, 1, 4, 2 (avg 2.4).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-6(4) 6-3Stefanos Tsitsipas#85vIgnacio Buse#33Jun 23, 2026

1 total meetings

Stefanos Tsitsipas

6W 9L

6-3 6-4 6-2#7Novak Djokovic

6-1 6-4 6-2#107Hugo Gaston

7-6(4) 6-3#33Ignacio Buse

7-6(2) 5-7 6-3 6-2#34Matteo Arnaldi

6-2 3-0 ret.#132Alexandre Muller

2-6 0-3#132Alexandre Muller

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#15Learner Tien

6-4 7-6(8)#89Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-4 7-6(4)#53Tomas Machac

6-7(4) 7-6(2) 7-6(3)#13Casper Ruud

6-4 6-2#82Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-2 7-5#11Alexander Bublik

3-6 7-6(6) 7-6(4)#112Patrick Kypson

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#54Fabian Marozsan

7-5 6-4#22Francisco Cerundolo

Ignacio Buse

10W 5L

6-2 6-2 6-3#76Jenson Brooksby

7-6(3) 3-6 7-5 6-0#91Emilio Nava

7-5 6-1#64Vit Kopriva

7-6(4) 6-3#85Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-2#32Brandon Nakashima

3-6 7-5 7-6(8)#87Marcos Giron

6-3 6-7(6) 6-3 7-5#16Andrey Rublev

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#24Tommy Paul

6-1 6-4#70Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-3 5-7 6-3#29Ugo Humbert

6-0 6-3#19Jakub Mensik

6-2 7-5#9Flavio Cobolli

6-1 6-2#107Hugo Gaston

6-2 6-0#505Niels Mcdonald

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2#17Frances Tiafoe