Pavel Lagutin #738Russia00 – 2Alejo Sanchez Quilez #492Spain2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Sanchez Quilez benefits from fresher legs as a wildcard entrant, while Lagutin faces a third match in three days, giving the home player a structural edge in a Bo3 format.

• Sanchez Quilez is a wildcard with no qualifying workload, while Lagutin played two qualifiers in two days, including a three-setter on July 12.
• Sanchez Quilez has a 64.5% win rate on first serve vs. Lagutin's 62.9%, and a higher break-point save rate (57.7% vs. 53.1%).
• Sanchez Quilez holds a 90% first-set win conversion rate in his career, compared to Lagutin's 94%, but Lagutin's recent form includes a loss to a lower-ranked player (Ivanov, #584).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Sanchez Quilez's consistent second-set performance and Lagutin's mixed results suggest the second set could be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.

• Lagutin's last 5 second sets: 6-1, 2-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 — 3 of 5 over 9.5 games.
• Sanchez Quilez's last 5 second sets: 6-3, 7-5, 6-4, 6-3, 7-5 — all over 9.5 games.
• Sanchez Quilez's second-set performance has been consistently strong, with all recent second sets going over 9.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Sanchez Quilez's high first-set win conversion rate and the freshness advantage suggest he will start strongly against a potentially fatigued Lagutin.

• Sanchez Quilez has a 90% career first-set win conversion rate, indicating strong starts.
• Lagutin's recent first-set performance: won 4 of last 5 first sets, but the loss was against a player ranked #584.
• Sanchez Quilez's last 5 matches: won first set in 3 of 5, including against higher-ranked opponents like Poljicak (#348).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player is a big server, and their low ace rates suggest a combined total under 8.5 aces is likely in a Bo3 match.

• Lagutin's ace rate is 1.7% (career 58 aces in 73 matches), averaging ~2 aces per match.
• Sanchez Quilez's ace rate is 1.9% (career 248 aces in 194 matches), averaging ~1.3 aces per match.
• Both players rely more on rallying than big serving, with first-serve percentages of 69% and 58% respectively.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While both players average around 2 double faults per match, a tight contest could push the total over 6.5, though it's a borderline call.

• Lagutin's double-fault rate is 4.4% (152 in 73 matches), averaging ~2 per match.
• Sanchez Quilez's double-fault rate is 3.2% (408 in 194 matches), averaging ~2.1 per match.
• In a competitive Bo3 match, combined double faults could exceed 6.5 if pressure increases, but both players are relatively consistent.