Andres Santamarta Roig #726Spain00 – 2Max Schoenhaus #320Germany2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Schoenhaus has a clear ranking and form edge on clay, with recent wins over higher-quality opponents, while Santamarta Roig's wins have come against weaker competition.

• Schoenhaus ranking 320 vs Santamarta Roig 726, significant gap at Challenger level.
• Schoenhaus 17-9 on clay in 2026, including wins over top-100 players (Van Assche, Giron).
• Santamarta Roig 4-4 on clay in 2026, mostly against lower-ranked opponents.
• Schoenhaus has higher ace rate (6.6% vs 1.2%) and stronger first-serve win% (70% vs 63%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be competitive given both players' recent first-set game counts and comparable serve stats.

• Santamarta Roig's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 over 9.5.
• Schoenhaus's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 over 9.5.
• Both players have similar first-serve win percentages, suggesting tight opening sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Schoenhaus's superior level and Santamarta Roig's struggles against better opponents suggest a comfortable margin of victory.

• Schoenhaus has covered -3.5 games in 6 of last 10 wins on clay.
• Santamarta Roig has lost by 4+ games in 4 of last 6 losses to top-300 players.
• Schoenhaus's average game margin in wins is +4.2 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Schoenhaus's strong first-set record and recent form suggest he is likely to start quickly against a lower-ranked opponent.

• Schoenhaus first-set win conversion 78% career, Santamarta Roig 94% but against weaker fields.
• Schoenhaus has won first set in 8 of last 10 matches on clay.
• Santamarta Roig lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches against top-300 opponents.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Schoenhaus's high ace rate alone should push the total over 5.5, with Santamarta Roig contributing a few.

• Schoenhaus averages 6.6 aces per match (ace rate 6.6%).
• Santamarta Roig averages 1.2 aces per match (ace rate 1.2%).
• Combined, they project around 7-8 aces based on recent rates.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double-fault rates that should combine to exceed 5.5 in a typical match.

• Schoenhaus double-fault rate 5.6%, averaging ~3-4 per match.
• Santamarta Roig double-fault rate 4.0%, averaging ~2-3 per match.
• Combined average around 6 double faults per match.