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Predictions graded

Mananchaya Sawangkaew #164Thailand2Mary Stoiana #130United States1

Sets 3-6 · 6-2 · 7-5Fri 10 Jul 2026, 15:19 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalGrass

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMary Stoiana · 34 places

Mananchaya Sawangkaew

Thailand

Thai right-hander who lists hard court as her preferred surface. WTA says she took the rest of 2025 off because of a back injury and returned in 2026; her career high is No. 100.

Current ranking: #164
Peak ranking: #100
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Mary Stoiana

United States

American right-hander whose WTA bio highlights her Texas A&M career and SEC Player of the Year awards in 2023 and 2024. Her current No. 130 is also her career high, with limited reliable public detail on preferred surface or height.

Current ranking: #130
Peak ranking: #130
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Jul 2026, 06:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Sawangkaew's recent H2H win, superior grass form (11-3), and lighter Thursday workload give her a narrow edge over Stoiana.

Expect a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games, with Stoiana keeping it close enough to cover +3.5 games.

Context

Stoiana beat Shymanovich 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 in 2 hours and 4 minutes on July 9.
- Sawangkaew beat Lea Ma 6-2, 6-3 in 1 hour and 3 minutes on the same day.
- Stoiana's match included a three-set comeback, adding physical and mental strain.
Sawangkaew defeated Stoiana 2-6, 6-4, 7-5 on June 24, 2026, at a grass event.
- Sawangkaew saved 80% of break points in that match, while Stoiana converted only 57%.
- The match was competitive, with both players winning 15 games each.
Sawangkaew is 11-3 on grass in 2026, with wins over Dolehide (ranked 214) and Parks (ranked 81).
- She has won 4 of her last 5 matches, all on grass.
- Her only recent grass loss was to world No. 9 Karolina Muchova in straight sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Sawangkaew holds a slight edge from the recent H2H win, stronger grass-court form this season, and a fresher physical state after a shorter Thursday match.
- H2H: Sawangkaew won their only meeting 2-6 6-4 7-5 on grass (2026-06-24).
- Recent form: Sawangkaew 4-1 last 5, including wins over Dolehide and Parks; Stoiana 3-2 last 5.
- Surface edge: Sawangkaew 11-3 on grass in 2026; Stoiana 8-3 on grass in 2026.
- Workload: Sawangkaew had a light 1h03m win on Thursday; Stoiana played 2h04m three-setter.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMananchaya SawangkaewEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stoiana's competitive record and the tight H2H suggest she will keep the match close, making +3.5 games a strong probability.
- H2H: Total games were 15-15 in their only meeting.
- Recent margins: Stoiana's last 5 wins were by an average of 5.6 games; Sawangkaew's last 5 wins by 5.4 games.
- Stoiana has covered +3.5 in 4 of her last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMary Stoiana +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive H2H and both players' high break-point conversion rates suggest a close match likely exceeding 21.5 games.
- H2H: Their only match had 30 total games (2-6 6-4 7-5).
- Recent matches: Sawangkaew's last 5 averaged 19.6 games; Stoiana's last 5 averaged 22.4 games.
- Both players have 50%+ break point conversion rates, leading to more breaks and longer matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While the H2H first set was one-sided, recent form shows tighter opening sets, giving a coin-flip chance for over 9.5 games.
- H2H: First set was 6-2 (8 games).
- Recent set1 games: Sawangkaew's last 5 set1s averaged 9.2 games; Stoiana's last 5 set1s averaged 9.6 games.
- Both players have high first-set win conversion, suggesting competitive starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high first-set win conversion rates, but Sawangkaew's recent momentum and lighter workload give her a narrow edge to start faster.
- First-set win conversion: Sawangkaew 88% career; Stoiana 87% career.
- Recent set1 performance: Sawangkaew won first set in 3 of last 5; Stoiana won first set in 2 of last 5.
- H2H: Stoiana won first set 6-2 in their only meeting.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMananchaya SawangkaewEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low career ace rates, and their H2H produced only 7 aces, making under 7.5 likely even on grass.
- Ace rates: Sawangkaew 3.9% (career 823 aces in 338 matches); Stoiana 1.9% (career 193 aces in 155 matches).
- H2H: Combined 7 aces in their only match (Sawangkaew 1, Stoiana 6).
- Grass typically yields more aces, but both players have low ace rates.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sawangkaew's high double-fault rate and the H2H total of 12 DFs suggest the combined total could exceed 8.5.
- Double fault rates: Sawangkaew 6.3% (career 1331 DFs in 338 matches); Stoiana 3.9% (career 383 DFs in 155 matches).
- H2H: Combined 12 double faults (Sawangkaew 7, Stoiana 5).
- Sawangkaew averages ~4 DFs per match; Stoiana ~2.5 DFs per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W2-6 6-4 7-5Mananchaya Sawangkaew#164vMary Stoiana#130Jun 24, 2026

1 total meetings

Mananchaya Sawangkaew

11W 4L

6-2 6-3#299Lea Ma

6-3 6-4#214Caroline Dolehide

6-2 7-6(1)#9Karolina Muchova

7-5 6-0#81Alycia Parks

2-6 7-5 6-2#21Maja Chwalinska

5-7 7-5 6-1#475Oceane Dodin

2-6 6-4 7-5#130Mary Stoiana

6-3 1-6 6-4#160Anouk Koevermans

7-6(3) 6-0#176Akasha Urhobo

6-3 6-2#32Alexandra Eala

6-4 6-1#137Kayla Day

6-4 7-5#167Linda Klimovicova

7-6(3) 6-3#228Aoi Ito

6-2 6-3#308Yuriko Miyazaki

6-3 3-6 6-3#501Hikaru Sato

Mary Stoiana

10W 5L

3-6 6-2 6-3#215Iryna Shymanovich

6-2 6-2#259Katrina Scott

2-6 6-4 7-5#164Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-3 6-4#197Kayla Cross

1-6 6-3 6-4#194Celine Naef

6-2 6-3#112Lulu Sun

7-5 6-1#171Tatiana Prozorova

7-5 6-4#137Kayla Day

6-4 3-6 6-0#155Rebeka Masarova

7-5 2-6 7-6(5)#194Celine Naef

4-6 7-6(8) 6-2#112Lulu Sun

6-7(4) 6-3 6-1#102Ashlyn Krueger

6-4 6-4#285Matilde Jorge

3-6 6-4 6-4#231Selena Janicijevic

7-5 6-7(8) 6-2#81Alycia Parks